This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

The world’s future is darkening. Ukraine’s defence is in peril, the Red Sea and Israel/Hamas conflicts threaten to join hands, the US is stationing nuclear weapons in England again, and even conscription is back on the agenda. Where are these multiple crises in Ukraine and the Middle East heading?The This Is Not A Drill team of Gavin Esler, Kyiv-based conflict journalist Oz Katerji and independent consultant and senior adviser at the European Institute for Peace Emma Beals convene for the first of our semi-regular panel discussions. • “It’s very simple. If you don’t want to worry about conscription then provide Ukraine with the support it needs.” – Oz Katerji• “The US was trying very hard to steer clear of the Middle East before October… They’ve been brought back unwillingly and they don’t have a lot of choice in the matter.” – Emma Beals• “My strong impression is that Donald Trump is out for revenge against both Ukraine and Zelenskyy… There is real concern about a Trump presidency.” – Oz KaterjiSupport This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more.When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.Written and presented by Gavin Esler with Emma Beals and Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Examining the chances of success for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, uncovering Russian atrocities, Ukraine's dilemma of making concessions or defiance, the stalemate in the conflict, challenges to negotiating peace, perspectives on the war and potential consequences, and the threat of Russia's strategic goals in Ukraine and impact on NATO.

Tensions are rising between China and Taiwan after Taiwan's election. China is enraged over the Taiwanese people's choice of President. The podcast explores various aspects of the conflict, including China's options for regaining the territory, the impact of Beijing's rhetoric on the election, and the future direction of China-Taiwan relations. It also discusses neighboring countries' perceptions, the impact of Trump's China policy, and China's internal problems and economic state.

Gavin Esler talks with Yemen expert Helen Lackner after a night of yet more conflict in the Middle East.Within hours of our recording with Yemen expert and author Helen Lackner analysing the Houthi militia’s attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels , the United States, supported by a coalition of the UK and eight other countries, led airstrikes on Houthi facilities in Yemen.The reaction from the Houthis has been to threaten reprisals - could this be the kind of escalation in the Middle East feared since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the devastating reprisals in Gaza?For further context listen to our Houthi explainer with Helen Lackner here: http://listen.podmasters.uk/tinadwebsite?at=1001l39LMSupport This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more.Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Explore the escalating conflict in the Middle East, including attacks on Israel. Discuss the ongoing conflict in Yemen and recent Houthi attacks on shipping. Learn about Iran's support for the Houthis and limited involvement of anti-Israeli states. Discover the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia in relation to the conflict in Yemen. Host also covers news topics and upcoming discussions.

Brian Klaas, UCL Associate Professor in Global Politics, discusses how Trump's damaging actions have undermined American democracy, the dangers of Trump 2.0, and the potential for political violence. The podcast explores the normalization of extreme rhetoric, division in America, the consequences of a re-elected Trump, and issues with polling and Trump's campaign.

With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza, tensions rising in Yemen and between China and Taiwan, populists eyeing elections across the world and the spectre of another Trump Presidency, 2024 could be the most dangerous year for global stability in two decades. How will the world’s various crises play out? And could there even be reasons for optimism?Gavin Esler looks at the year ahead with Lord Peter Ricketts, Britain’s first National Security Adviser, former chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee and author of Hard Choices – an exploration of Britain’s place in the world. • “All that’s certain in 2024 is uncertainty.” – Gavin Esler• “If there’s been a strategic loser in Ukraine so far, it’s Vladimir Putin… He’s been forced into a junior partnership with China.” – Peter Ricketts• “I’m not so worried about the far right in Europe. I’m much more worried about Trump in the White House.” – Peter RickettsBuy Hard Choices through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With his playbook of brutal invasion, cyberwar and intimidation, Vladimir Putin is the nightmare neighbour of every country that borders Russia. Beyond his crimes in Ukraine, could Putin’s ambitions run wider – into the heart of Europe? Gavin Esler explores how Russia is using weak spots along its border from Estonia to the Balkans to fan feuds, create chaos and tear at the fabric of the global order.Jasmin Mujanović explains how Russia is pushing to reignite the simmering Serbia/Kosovo dispute. And Putin-watcher Mark Galeotti explains that while the brutal system that the Russian tyrant has built looks invulnerable, behind the façade it is worryingly brittle.• “For most of Putin’s reign Russia has been at declared or undeclared war with someone. What he likes is a certain low level of chaos.” – Mark Galeotti• “Russia saw Serbia as a really cheap opportunity to invest in low-level chaos… which is now becoming more serious.” – Jasmin Mujanović• “Putin is going to look at what will be politically bloody, hard-fought American Presidential election and see how he can use it to tear the United States apart.” – Mark GaleottiSupport This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more.Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From ‘Stop the Boats’ to ‘Build the Wall’, mass migration is the great upheaval of our times, opening a poisonous political divide. Will population movement really tip our world into chaos as the populists and far-right agitators warn? Will democracies have to choose between mass migration or low growth? Are hardliners like Italy’s Meloni or Hungary’s Orbán really cutting migration to their countries like they say? And what does “solving” migration even mean?Just days after Suella Braverman’s incendiary Commons speech and Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick’s theatrical resignation over the Rwanda policy, Gavin Esler looks for answers with Prof Hein de Haas, author of How Migration Really Works. • “Immigration is the price you pay for being a wealthy market economy. That’s the bottom line.”• “Migration rhetoric is a vote-winner but it’s very dishonest… We have to be aware of what politicians say and what they do.” • “The Rwanda policy is an act of desperation. It’s been a huge failure and a political distraction.”Buy How Migration Really Works through our new affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s commission helps support independent bookshops too.Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Exploring the increase in global conflicts and their potential dangers. The changing nature of conflicts, including trust state conflicts, civil wars, and internationalization. Challenges in Gaza's governance and reconstruction. Assessing support for Ukraine and exploring the consequences of unresolved conflicts. The connection between climate change, conflict, and the lack of governance in fragile states.