Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 5/5/23 Join Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel as they discuss the current state of the labor market; the concerning trend of rising unemployment claims and a cooling labor landscape. Bilal Hafeez shares his contrasting thoughts on the actions the Fed should take. The discussion also touches on the superior positioning of European banks compared to US banks. Bilal talks about booming investments in A.I. and how big tech companies will benefit from this trend. Listen now to gain insights into inflation, the Fed's response, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding American and Chinese A.I. Guest: Bilal Hafeez is the Founder and CEO of Macro Hive. He was the Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura between 2016 and 2019 and held various senior roles at Deutsche Bank between 2002 and 2015 including Head of Multi-Asset Research, Advisor to the CEO, Head of Asia Research in Singapore, and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research. Bilal started his career at JP Morgan in 1998 and was rated the #1 market strategist by Euromoney and Institutional Investor between 2004 and 2013. He pioneered FX investment and smart beta benchmarks and was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School. He studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge, and has seven cats, four chickens, a beehive, and one dog. Learn more at https://macrohive.com/macro-hive-team/ Follow Bilal on Twitter: @bilalhafeez123

Join Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel as they dive deep into fixed income and recent economic reports. Some other key topics include the S&P 500 index, stabilization in the housing market, and the potential for a cumulative effect of policy to stimulate the market. Banks are still strained but we’re not feeling the macroeconomic domino effect (yet). Returning guest Dave Goodson gives his views on fixed income market opportunities. Dave shares his framework for investing in and studying fixed income and the securitized market, and how they can greatly benefit your portfolio. He thinks the 60/40 portfolio might be making a comeback, and he gives other great portfolio construction tips. Guest: Dave Goodson is a managing director, head of securitized fixed income and a senior portfolio manager for non-agency and agency mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities strategies at Voya Investment Management. Prior to joining Voya, he was a principal at an independent investment bank focused on asset-backed commercial paper transactions. Previously, Dave began his career as a vice president in Wachovia Securities’ asset-backed finance group, marketing and executing securitizations for the bank’s corporate clients. He earned a BS in management from the Georgia Institute of Technology Learn more at institutional.voya.com/investment-ca…itized-credit Follow Voya on Twitter: @VoyaInvestments

Show from 4/21/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel speak on the ever-changing stats coming out of the Fed. Much is evolving as the data begin to reflect the macro highlights of Q1 2023. Tesla’s price war and P&G’s earnings are in the headlines. Expert economist Vincent Reinhart comes on the show to discuss the latest on housing and labor markets, global strain on banks, and every other big swing in the macroeconomy. He discusses the effect of major generational shocks like COVID and the Ukraine-Russia conflict on inflation, which he has researched at length. Check out the episode to learn more about the most important aspects of today’s geopolitics and economics! Guest: Vincent Reinhart is Chief Economist and Macro Strategist at Mellon Investments. In this role, he is responsible for developing views on the global economy and making relative value recommendations across global bond markets, currencies and sectors. Previously, Vincent served as the Chief US Economist and a managing director at Morgan Stanley. For the prior four years, he was a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Vincent also worked in several roles at the Federal Reserve over 24 years, including Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs and Secretary and Economist of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). His academic publications primarily concern the conduct of policy and issues related to the monetary transmission mechanism as well as an analysis of alternative auction techniques and Treasury debt management. After an undergraduate training at Fordham University, he received graduate degrees in economics at Columbia University. Learn more at https://www.mellon.com/about-us/our-people/vincent-reinhart.html Follow Mellon on Twitter: @melloninvests

Show from 4/14/23 Chris Gannatti joins Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel this week as they speak to esteemed guest Nathaniel “Nat” Bullard. Despite the ever-present strain of inflation, it’s apparent the economy is not falling apart just yet. Nat shares his vast knowledge of ESG and carbon reduction as it affects macroeconomic pressures. You don’t want to miss out on his take on today’s gas prices. Tune in to get up to speed on the environment, economy, and polarizing politics! Guest: Nat Bullard writes: I have spent nearly two decades analyzing, writing about, presenting on, and strategizing for deep decarbonization of the global economy. I spent 15 years with BloombergNEF, joining prior to New Energy Finance's acquisition by Bloomberg in 2009. There, I covered US markets, solar, and global executive strategy, concluding my time as the group's Chief Content Officer. While at BloombergNEF I began my weekly writing as well, which later moved to Bloomberg Opinion and now, Bloomberg Green. Today, my Bloomberg Green column reaches 250,000 subscribers a week. I maintain a senior contributor role for BloombergNEF, and I also have had a long-term engagement with early-stage climate tech venture capital firm Voyager Ventures. I am a frequent keynote speaker and board presenter on deep decarbonization technology, policy, markets, and strategy in an independent capacity. Follow him on Twitter: @NatBullard Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 4/7/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel review some weak and unfortunate macro-level data from the markets this past week. Even the labor force is softening again, despite the promise that Q1 2023 brought. Plus, the fallout from bank runs hasn’t been fully realized in the data yet. Jonathan Ward joins the conversation to break down the current state of US-China relations. He shares his unique perspective on macroeconomics, informed by his geopolitical expertise. Guest: Dr. Jonathan D. T. Ward has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. Dr. Ward is author of The Decisive Decade, available where books are sold April 29th. Learn more at https://jonathandtward.com/ Buy/pre-order his book: https://www.amazon.com/Decisive-Decade-American-Strategy-Triumph/dp/1635768454 Follow him on Twitter: @jonathandtward

Show from 3/31/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel kick off the episode with a positive outlook on US macro trends. Inflationary pressures are leveling off comfortably, at least for the past week. The SVB fallout appears to be relatively isolated, and widespread bank runs no longer seem imminent. David Zervos weighs in on the same topics, adding his renowned macro market expertise. Market direction is still unclear in light of the Fed’s latest moves. Tune in to hear our best guess on the future of your money! Guest: David Zervos is currently Chief Market Strategist for Jefferies LLC and Head of the Global Macro Division of Leucadia Asset Management, LLC. David joined Jefferies in 2010 after spending 2009 as a visiting advisor at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C. Prior to visiting the Federal Reserve, he held a variety of research, sales and trading positions in the private sector, most recently managing global macro portfolios for Brevan Howard and UBS O'Connor. He began his career as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board in the early 1990's. He received a B.Sc. from Washington University, and an M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of Rochester. Learn more at https://jefferiesmacrostrategy.com/about-david/ Follow him on Twitter: @jefmacrostat

Show from 3/24/23 Prof. Siegel takes a break from his vacation to call in and discuss this week’s big market news. The spotlight is on some disturbing projections from the Fed surrounding jobs and wages, and future rate cuts. Strain on institutions around the world brings into question the potential for recession. Wim Schoutens joins from Belgium to share his perspective based on his foremost expertise in bond markets. His proximity to Switzerland and familiarity with Co/Cos makes him a great resource for explaining what went down with Credit Suisse and the reaction by the global market. Then, Wharton alumnus Catherine LeGraw comes on to give GMO’s views on stocks, bonds, and markets at large. Her high-level macro lens rounds out the conversation and encapsulates the rest of the economy. Join Jeremy Schwartz et al. to learn more! Guests: Wim Schoutens is professor in financial engineering at the University of Leuven, Belgium. He has extensive practical experience of model implementation and validation. He is well known for his consulting work to the banking industry and national and supra-national institutions. He is an independent expert advisor to the European Commission, has worked for the IMF and is the author of several books on quantitative finance. Wim is also a founding partner of RiskConcile, a fintech company with roots within the University of Leuven. Learn more at https://schoutens.eu/ Catherine LeGraw is a Wharton graduate and a former student of Prof. Siegel. She is a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team and a partner of the firm. Prior to joining GMO in 2013, she worked as a director at BlackRock. Previously, Ms. LeGraw was an analyst at Bear, Stearns & Co. She received her BA and her BS in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania. She is a CFA charterholder. Learn more at: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/?author=72ba2300-f9c4-47c0-8d9c-4c063da99017

Show from 3/17/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Jeremy Siegel tackle the banking crisis, continuing inflation, and market sentiment as volatility dominates the narrative. Bitcoin and crypto are seeing more action now that trust in TradFi systems is decreasing. Trevor Greetham comes on from London UK to share his views on the underinsured, illiquid assets in the US spilling out into the rest of the world. He discusses some lesser-mentioned macro trends that factor into global inflation cycles. Trevor daws on his experience in allocation for major life insurance and pension portfolios. Guest: Trevor Greetham is a portfolio manager at Royal London Asset Management. Prior to joining Royal London in 2015, Trevor was asset allocation director for Fidelity Worldwide Investment, where he was responsible for implementing tactical investment decisions across a wide range of institutional and retail funds including the Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund. Learn more at https://adviser.royallondon.com/contacts/trevor-greetham/ Follow him on Twitter: @TrevorGreetham

Show from 3/10/23 Chris Gannatti fills in for Jeremy Schwartz this week and joins Prof. Jeremy Siegel to talk big swings in macroeconomic trends. Crypto exchanges and regional banks are still facing struggles. Inflation rages on and turmoil continues in the labor economy. Guest Blake Heimann shares his thoughts on AI, including ChatGPT’s recent leaps, and touches on the broad economic and societal implications of AI. An interesting and fun conversation despite some potentially dystopian topics! Guest: Blake Heimann is a Research Analyst at WisdomTree. He’s an insatiably curious polymath with a passion for quantitative financial modeling, automated trading, and portfolio management. He is keen on novel approaches leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning in investment management. Blake’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/blakeheimann Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 3/3/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Jeremy Siegel are optimistic in light of the restabilization of markets and GDP. As the Fed continues to tighten, everything is looking more steady in the US economy. Warren Mosler joins the show today, and shares his unique economic theories and intriguing ideas about financial structures. He argues controversially that higher interest rates have stimulated the economy to resist recession, not relented it. Listen in for more of Mosler’s surprising insights. Guest: Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory. An entrepreneur and financial professional, Warren Mosler has spent the past 40 years gaining an insider’s knowledge of monetary operations. He co-founded AVM, a broker/dealer providing advanced financial services to large institutional accounts and the Illinois Income Investors (III) family of investment funds in 1982. He holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Connecticut and remains deeply involved in the academic community. He has given presentations at conferences around the world and published numerous articles in economic journals, newspapers, and periodicals. Mosler is also the author of The Seven Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy. He is credited with creating Mosler’s law that states “there is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large fiscal adjustment cannot correct it.” For more information, visit his website: https://warrenmosler.com/ Follow him on Twitter: @wbmosler