Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 7/14/23 Prof. Siegel begins with the positive news of inflation coming in below expectations. He highlights the strength of the real economy, citing low initial jobless claims and strong consumer sentiment. Market sentiment is optimistic, with money flowing back into the market and a favorable outlook for investors. (00:12:50) Warren focuses on the potential margin contraction in 2024 earnings due to wage pressures and interest expenses, expressing concern about the excessive optimism in the market. He also mentions that while AI may enhance productivity in the long term, its efficiency gains might not materialize in time to support the 2024 earnings picture. Nitesh discusses the disappointment in China's reopening and the absence of substantial stimulus measures to drive growth. While China has been strategically accumulating raw materials and investing in grid expenditures for the energy transition, questions arise about its ability to maintain demand growth, especially in the oil market. Guest: Prior to founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets. Warren is a frequent contributor to the media including participating in the 2013 Barron’s MLP Roundtable discussion, the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and RealVision. In 2014, Euromoney Institutional Investor awarded Warren the Padraic Fallon award for his research on the Shale Revolution. Outside of the research world, Warren has worked as a practicing attorney specializing in regulatory approvals for various industrial activities and projects. He has also owned, operated, and sold a portfolio of self-storage properties to a national REIT. Learn more at: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/about Follow Warren on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437/ Nitesh Shah is Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow Nitesh on Twitter: @NiteshShahWT

Show from 07/07/23 Prof. Siegel talks to us about the new market data and the current unemployment rate reports this week (10:35). Jeremy and Chris are joined today by Simon who discusses his new book Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity. They talk about the importance of AI for human-kind and its comparison to previous technologies. Simon gets into detail on the positive implications of AI but warns against the potential negatives. They debate whether people should support purchasing goods from countries that do not have safe guards for surveillance tech. Simon gives his opinion on the tech elite, government involvement, as well as job creation and tax inequality tied with advancements in technology. Guest: Simon Johnson is the Ronald A. Kurtz (1954) Professor of Entrepreneurship at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he is head of the Global Economics and Management group. In 2007-08 he was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and he currently co-chairs the CFA Institute Systemic Risk Council. In February 2021, Johnson joined the board of directors of Fannie Mae. Johnson’s most recent book, with Daron Acemoglu, Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity, explores the history and economics of major technological transformations up to and including the latest developments in Artificial Intelligence. Learn more at: https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/simon-johnson Follow him on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-johnson-17b40645/ Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 06/30/23 Prof. Siegel talks to us about the current positive market standings this week and his hesitation with the Feds ongoing decisions. Jeremy is joined by Raymond who tells us a little bit about himself, his background and the firms he is a part of (09:33). He explains why people would want to use services at Relative Sentiment Technologies. He gives us his perspective on the retail market, where it’s headed and if it is the future smart strategy. They discuss customizations and suggestions based off risk exposure and his research across asset classes. He gives us insight into positioning due to surveys and analysis of the market. We hear his opinions on the international markets as they stand today and what is potentially driving the trends. Guest: Raymond Micaletti is the co-founder and CIO of Relative Sentiment Technologies, LLC. He has over 20 years' experience at major investment banks (JPMorgan, Barclays), hedge funds (Fortress Investment Group), and asset management firms where his primary focus has been on the research, development, and management of systematic investment strategies. In 2018, he laid the groundwork for RST by publishing a paper on a new method for tactical asset allocation using relative sentiment. An active topic on which he continues to research and publish. A native of western Pennsylvania, Ray holds a B.S. in civil engineering from the University of Notre Dame and a Ph.D. in engineering mechanics from Princeton University. Learn more at: https://relativesentiment.com/about-us.html Follow him on Twitter: @RelSentTech

Show from 6/23/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel discuss how the recent job reports and global manufacturing data have raised concerns about a softening economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell provided no new information during his congressional appearance, and remains committed to anticipated interest rate hikes. Additionally, the housing market continues to experience a significant surge in prices, which may impact consumer spending in the future. Prof. Daniel Rock and Prof. Siegel discuss the rapid adoption of chat GPT and the surprising capabilities of AI models, particularly in generating plausible texts. Chris and Prof. Rock discuss the deflationary benefits of new technologies like AI, comparing it to Moore's Law, and emphasize the importance for businesses to ride the wave of technological advancements rather than trying to be at the forefront. They also discuss the geopolitical dynamics of the AI battle, emphasizing the need for accessibility and acknowledging the potential for competition in regions like China and India. Tune in to hear all about the geopolitical dynamics of the AI battle, the potential of large language models, and the use of AI in education and research on this week's episode. Guest: Professor Daniel Rock an Assistant Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His research is on the economic effects of digital technologies, with a particular emphasis on the economics of artificial intelligence. He has recently worked on studies addressing the types of occupations that are most exposed to machine learning, measuring the value of AI skillsets to employer firms, and adjusting productivity measurement to include investments in intangible assets. His research has been published in various academic journals and featured in outlets such as The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Harvard Business Review, and Sloan Management Review. Much of his work involves applying cutting-edge data science techniques to analyze datasets from financial market data sources, online resume sites, and job postings. Learn more at: https://oid.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/rockdi/ Follow him on Twitter: @danielrock Chris Gannatti is Global Head of Research at WisdomTree Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Jeremy and the professor are joined today by both Brandon and Nora as they discuss their views on the economy, inflation and what’s happening to farmland. Brandon tells us that inflation isn’t expected to affect agriculture in the way it has affected the Feds. They discuss the bond market and why future cycles are looking so positive, and what’s involved in purchasing and investing in farms. Both Brandon and Nora give us an in depth look into the farming industry and how it ties into the market, how crop yields play a role, and how they choose which farms to invest in. They also give us a view into the future of the farming industry and new technology that could improve the industry as a whole, and talk about the difficulties of finding reliable labor and replacing humans with machines. Guests: Brandon Zick joined Ceres Partners in 2010. He is responsible for managing all investments at Ceres, including farmland and private equity strategies. In this role he supervises valuation analysis, acquisition due diligence, tenant management and acquisition negotiations. Nora Pickens serves as Managing Director of Investments at Mill Creek Capital Advisors, LLC. She has primary responsibility for evaluating fixed income and alternative credit strategies across MCCA’s investment programs. Learn more at: https://www.cerespartners.com/our-team/brandon-zick https://www.millcreekcap.com/ Connect on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/brandon-zick-394a5310 linkedin.com/in/norapickens

Jeremy, Jeremy and Nir discuss their market theories for the upcoming week and where the market is headed. Nir defends the Fed and gives his opinion on their choices. He tells us about AI’s potential and current impacts on the economy. Nir gives us his hypothesis on how AI will affect the market in the upcoming year after last year's market readjustment. He discusses the purchase of tips in an inflated market. He dives into his view on high yield bonds, foreign investments and the risk/reward of current geopolitics. Guest: Nir Kaissar, Chartered Financial Analyst, founded Unison in 2005. Unison manages diversified portfolios for institutions and individuals using a data-driven, systematic approach to asset allocation. Nir is also a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, writing about markets, investing, economics and public policy. Learn more at: https://unisonadvisors.com/?page_id=61 Connect on Twitter: @nirkaissar

Show from 6/2/23 Jeremy, Chris, and Eric dive into the current real estate market. Eric discusses how his firm is moving into the single family home rental market. He talks about the stall in the office rental market as people continue to work from home. They get into detail on retail real estate, the death of regional malls, and the rise of open-air stores. Chris asks about private real estate and what investors should be concerned about moving into the future. Eric talks in depth about the growth of tech real estate, the growing need for data center space, and the energy required for AI data chip creation. Guest: Eric Rothman serves as Portfolio Manager for CenterSquare Investment Management’s real estate securities group. He is responsible for market research, sector allocations, research, and financial modeling across the U.S. real estate securities universe. He also manages a REIT preferred stock separate account mandate. He has over 25 years of REIT and real estate investment experience. Prior to joining CenterSquare, he spent more than six years as a sell-side REIT analyst at Wachovia Securities and three years as an analyst at AEW Capital Management. He is a CFA charterholder and member of the CFA Institute. Learn more at: https://www.centersquare.com/investment-team Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eric-rothman-cfa-02561710?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 5/26/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel are joined by Samuel Rines as they discuss today's market and economy. Sam dives into why the Feds are in a grackle state between hawkish and dovish maneuvers, explaining how price over volume is sticking around due to inflation and the reluctance for consumers' to push back. They go into depth on whether the summer will flow into a recession, and the importance of Middle America's contributions to driving the economy, as well as the excitement of big tech and its effect on the current market. Jeremy and Sam also touch on their upcoming collaboration. Sam tells us a bit more about his firm Corbu and its specializations as well as his view on the global market, oil, and the bond market. Guest: Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU. Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed by both large family offices and institutional investors. Prior to joining CORBU, Samuel was the Chief Economist and Investment Strategist at Avalon Advisors, Before joining Avalon, Samuel was the portfolio manager at Chilton Capital Management, where he launched the Chilton ESG Equity Strategy and a long/short technology portfolio. Samuel started his career as the cross-asset analyst for a small hedge fund. He is the author of the book “After Normal: Making Sense of the Global Economy”. Follow him on Twitter: @SamuelRines

Show from 5/19/23 Join your hosts and Guy LeBas as they delve into the markets this week. Prof. Siegel purports there will be a debt deal, prompting short-covering in the market. Jobless claims showed a suspicious jump attributed to fraud in one state. The upcoming labor market report will be crucial for the Fed's decision in June, with dissent among members possible, depending on its findings. Jeremy Schwartz and Guy LeBas discuss financial markets, focusing on inflation, Treasury yields, and corporate credit. Deposit outflows from banks have slowed, especially in larger regional banks with diverse deposits. The banking sector's valuation outlook is positive, with many banks expected to recover from bond portfolio losses. Listen in to learn more about this Spring’s important macro trends! Guest: Guy LeBas is Janney’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist as well as Director of Custom Fixed Income Solutions for Janney Capital Management. As Strategist, he is responsible for providing direction to the Firm’s clients on the macroeconomic, interest rate, and bond market investing climate. Guy authors bond market periodicals, which provide relative value recommendations across the fixed income spectrum. With Janney Capital Management, Guy is responsible for overseeing the Firm’s discretionary managed bond portfolios, which take a client-tailored approach to generating consistent income across interest rate environments. Learn more at: https://www.janney.com/meet-janney/people/guy-lebas Follow Guy on Twitter: @lebas_janney

Show from 5/12/23 Join Jeremy Schwartz, Prof. Siegel, and Chris Gannatti as they talk about Mark Mills’s path through academia and his career in tech and energy. Mark discusses how macro-level energy logistics can have global influence on productivity and economies. The show goes in depth on the role of new technology in improving the energy sector, and how energy can also be optimized for powering new technology. Mark talks about how far away a break-even nuclear fusion energy reactor truly is. They also touch on how the consumption of energy around the world is increasing as more technology is developed and adopted globally, and the significance of cloud computing in the energy space. Guest: Mark Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a faculty fellow at Northwestern University’s McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science. He is also a strategic partner with Montrose Lane (an energy-tech venture fund). Previously, Mills cofounded Digital Power Capital, a boutique venture fund, and was chairman and CTO of ICx Technologies, helping take it public in 2007. Mills is author of the book The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020s, and host of the new podcast The Last Optimist. He is also author of Digital Cathedrals, and Work in the Age of Robots. Mills earlier coauthored The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy. Learn more at https://manhattan.institute/person/mark-p-mills Follow Bilal on Twitter: @MarkPMills Co-host Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti