The Global Gambit

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, explains why the conflict has turned into a grinding war of attrition. Short sentences cover Iran’s long‑war preparations, the IRGC’s rising power, limits to a durable ceasefire, risks of regional escalation involving major powers, and why diverging US and Israeli aims complicate any clear resolution.

The United States has deployed one of its largest military buildups in the Middle East in decades — and yet, nothing has happened. So why assemble overwhelming force if conflict was never inevitable?In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Daily Telegraph, to unpack the real strategy behind America’s military pressure on Iran. We explore how Donald Trump is using military leverage to force a new nuclear deal, why Iran’s weakened regional position has shifted the balance, and how Tehran is relying on diplomacy, Russia, and China to survive.This is a conversation about coercion, credibility, and why the most powerful military deployments are often designed not to be used — but to reshape the negotiating table.Chapters00:00 The Military Buildup and Its Implications10:01 Iran's Current Position and Internal Dynamics19:57 The Role of External Influences and Regional Dynamics29:42 Future Scenarios: Engagement or Conflict?Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SummaryIn this episode I engage Larissa Brown, the defence editor at The Times, to discuss the current state of geopolitics, defence dynamics, and the implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They explore insights from the Munich Security Conference, the UK's defence spending, military readiness, and the evolving threat posed by Russia. The conversation also delves into the US-UK defence relationship, public sentiment on military spending, and the challenges facing the UK military in terms of manpower and logistics. As they look ahead, they consider the impact of populism on European defence and the importance of collaboration among European nations.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Geopolitics and Defense Dynamics02:38 Insights from the Munich Security Conference05:41 Assessing the UK Military's Readiness08:26 The Threat of Russia and Hybrid Warfare11:22 UK's Defense Spending and Political Challenges14:08 The US-UK Defense Relationship16:43 European Strategic Autonomy and Cooperation19:36 The Role of Drones in Modern Warfare22:28 Joint Operations Against ISIS and Future Threats25:02 The Future of UK Defense and European Relations28:17 Looking Ahead: Key Global Events and DevelopmentsSubscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SummaryIn this conversation, Edward Lucas discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, the influence of Donald Trump on NATO and European defense, and the shifting dynamics of power in Europe. He emphasises the need for Europe to enhance its military autonomy and the importance of a united front against Russia. Lucas also addresses the concept of the 'shadow fleet' and the implications of European actions on Russia's strategic calculations. The discussion highlights the complexities of international relations and the necessity for Europe to adapt to changing geopolitical realities.Chapters00:00 Current State of Trilateral Talks03:59 The Role of the United States in European Security09:55 Europe's Defense Capabilities and Autonomy15:47 The Shadow Fleet and European Responses21:38 Final Thoughts and Future OutlookSubscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute executive vice president and Iran specialist, walks through Iran's political upheaval and regional fallout. He outlines the internet blackout and its effects. He contrasts recent protest waves and discusses water, sanctions, and leadership failure. He explains shifting Middle East alignments and why neighbors pushed to avoid military escalation.

SummaryIn this conversation, Martin Wolf discusses the current state of the global economy, emphasizing the importance of demographic changes, economic growth, and the resilience of economies in the face of challenges. He highlights the political fragility in Europe and the US, the risks associated with transatlantic relations, and the need for Europe to strengthen its position in a multipolar world. The discussion also touches on the fragmentation of regional blocks and the uncertainty surrounding the future of global governance.Chapters00:00 Reflections on Global Economic Trends08:52 Political Fragility and Economic Growth17:51 The Future of Transatlantic Relations26:37 Europe's Strategic Challenges Ahead35:07 Navigating a New World OrderSubscribe to the YouTube channel and Substack newsletter for the latest content. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SummaryIn this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Dmitri Alperovitch delve into the intricate relationship between geoeconomics and geopolitics, particularly in the context of the United States' National Security Strategy. They discuss the implications of Trump's approach to international relations, the challenges Europe faces in achieving strategic autonomy, and the complexities surrounding tariffs and economic strategies. The dialogue also touches on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the potential risks associated with seizing Russian sovereign assets.Subscribe to the YouTube channel and Substack newsletter for the latest content. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SummaryIn this episode of Global Gambit, host Pyotr Kurzin engages with Lawrence Freedman, a prominent figure in military strategy, to dissect the recent 28-point peace plan regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Kurzin expresses skepticism about the plan's legitimacy, noting its repetitive nature and the lack of serious diplomatic engagement. Freedman elaborates on the origins of the plan, highlighting its amateurish drafting and the absence of meaningful discussions between Russia and Ukraine. He critiques the plan's vague language and unrealistic expectations, suggesting that it may not lead to a viable resolution of the ongoing conflict.As the conversation progresses, Freedman discusses the implications of the plan for both Ukraine and Russia, emphasizing the need for a more robust diplomatic framework. He also touches on the current military situation, including the challenges faced by both sides as winter approaches. The episode concludes with a reflection on the broader geopolitical landscape, urging listeners to consider the complexities of international relations and the potential for escalation in the region. Freedman's insights provide a nuanced understanding of the ongoing conflict and the challenges of achieving lasting peace.Subscribe to the YouTube channel and Substack newsletter for the latest content. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SummaryThis conversation delves into the complex and evolving tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, focusing on the recent ceasefire, the role of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the broader geopolitical implications of the Taliban's legitimacy. Michael Kugelman provides insights into the historical context of the violence, the political instability in Pakistan, and the international mediation efforts by countries like Qatar and Turkey. The discussion also highlights the challenges Pakistan faces in managing its relationships with militant groups and the potential future scenarios for border security.Subscribe to the YouTube channel and Substack newsletter for the latest content. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SummaryIn this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Mitch Mechigian discuss the evolving landscape of geopolitics and finance, particularly focusing on the role of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. They explore Trump's shift from skepticism to support for crypto, the normalization of digital currencies among nation-states, and the implications of geopolitical events on the crypto market. The discussion also highlights the rise of stablecoins as a significant player in the financial system and the potential for emerging markets to lead the next wave of crypto adoption.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.