The Global Gambit Why the Iran War is Creating Something Even Worse
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Mar 15, 2026 
Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, explains why the conflict has turned into a grinding war of attrition. Short sentences cover Iran’s long‑war preparations, the IRGC’s rising power, limits to a durable ceasefire, risks of regional escalation involving major powers, and why diverging US and Israeli aims complicate any clear resolution.
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Conflict Has Shifted To A Grinding War Of Attrition
- The Iran conflict has become an attritional war neither side can quickly win.
- Ali Vaez explains Iran prepared for a long war with succession, continuity, and dispersed retaliatory tactics rather than expecting rapid collapse.
Iran Chose Endurance To Raise The Price Of Attack
- Iran deliberately planned endurance over sudden victory to force high costs on the U.S. and Israel.
- Vaez notes Tehran spread attacks across neighbors and assets so adversaries would pay over time rather than accept easy strikes.
Economic Strain Makes The Conflict Unsustainable
- The war cannot remain background noise because of broad economic and human pressures.
- Vaez cites disrupted Asian supply chains, filled oil storage, rising Iranian civilian deaths and mounting political pressure as instability drivers.