The Numbers

Three federal byelections that could give Mark Carney a majority government are now less than two weeks away. Pierre Poilievre is trying out some new approaches against the Liberal government as he tries to close the gap and the NDP now has a new permanent leader in Avi Lewis. Meanwhile, a new poll out of Quebec shows the provincial election in October could prove to be a toss-up.Stuff is about to get real out there.This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and where things stand as this political spring starts to heat up. Plus, we take a peak at some leaked data about how NDP members ranked their ballot on the weekend. We also chat about a new poll out of Quebec, where the provincial election slated in October is looking tougher and tougher to predict.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Quick reactions to Avi Lewis clinching the NDP leadership with a first-ballot victory. A breakdown of vote percentages and surprising low results for rivals. Discussion of internal party tensions and provincial leaders’ concerns. Talk about strategy challenges like finding a seat and how Conservatives might respond.

The most predictive indicator of most leadership races is money. And in the NDP leadership race, Avi Lewis has raised the most of it — by far. Does that make him the favourite to win the NDP crown on Sunday?This week on The Numbers, before we both jet off to Winnipeg, we set our expectations for how the vote will unfurl this weekend. We also take a look at what some new poll numbers say about the candidates for the leadership as well as the future of the NDP. Then, we break down the new federal polls (including on views of Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast) and take a quick look at some new provincial numbers out of Manitoba and Ontario before we close with an NDP-themed Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With some polls suggesting the Liberals are nearing 50% support while the Conservatives are slipping toward 30%, one has to wonder: has Mark Carney hit his ceiling and has Pierre Poilievre hit his floor?This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polling numbers and the unprecedented scores being put up by the Liberals. We also discuss provincial polling from across the country as a new poll shows which premiers are up and which premiers are down. Then, Philippe has another Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A deep dive into Lori Idlout’s move to the Liberals and how it shifts the House math. A clear breakdown of the upcoming by‑elections and what three seats could mean for a majority. Analysis of recent national and Alberta polls showing Liberal momentum. Updates on NDP leadership fundraising and a playful political history quiz for fun.

Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre were overseas this week, as the prime minister made stops in India, Australia and Japan and the opposition leader visited Germany and the United Kingdom. But while the trips were foreign, the politics are always domestic.This week on The Numbers, we take a look at polling numbers that shed some light on what Canadians think about a few hot button foreign policy issues and what bearing that could have on Liberal and Conservative support. We also chat about some of the latest federal polling numbers, including a new Léger poll that awards the Liberals a 14-point lead. Plus, we discuss some new provincial polls in Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec, where support for independence has hit a new low.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can find this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the polling gap widens between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a surprising new trend has emerged. In Alberta, three new polls suggest the margin between the two parties has closed significantly. What is behind this shift in the polls, is it the real deal and what could it mean for the next election?We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the results of the Chicoutimi byelection as well as some new provincial polling out of Quebec and Ontario, where Doug Ford has dismissed numbers that show he might be losing a step on his rivals.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

They debate a surprise MP floor-crossing and what it means for local races. They walk through seat math that could hand Carney a majority. They unpack an annulled Terrebonne result decided by one vote. They consider a potential NDP resignation and fresh polling from BC, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Quebec.

With the polls showing a spike in support for the Liberals, speculation has also spiked about an early election. What do the polls say about whether Mark Carney’s Liberals or Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives should want to head back on the campaign trail in 2026?This week on The Numbers, we break down the state of the federal race and discuss whether or not Carney’s bump is an extension of his honeymoon or an entirely new thing. We also chat about the round of byelections that we can expect in the next few months and what they mean for both federal and Ontario politics. Plus, a new poll on Alberta independence shows some stark divides in the province that complicate things for Danielle Smith (and Poilievre).Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Pierre Poilievre received 87.4% support in his leadership review at the Conservative convention in Calgary — a number we said in last week’s episode would be the “most boring” because it would be neither extremely high nor problematically low. But now that Poilievre has passed this test, he has to face his next challenge: closing the widening gap in the polls between his Conservatives and Mark Carney’s Liberals.This week on The Numbers, we discuss the aftermath of Poilievre’s leadership review and what the polls are saying about the state of the national race. We also chat about the NDP leadership contest, where Avi Lewis has opened a wide fundraising lead. Plus, we have some new provincial polls out of B.C., Alberta and Quebec.(Our discussion of the upcoming federal byelections was before the Liberals announced they had nominated Ontario NDP MPP Doly Begum as their candidate in Scarborough Southwest.)Scheduling note: Starting next week, new episodes of The Numbers will be published on Thursdays. Look for the next episode of The Numbers on February 12!Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.