The Numbers Floor-crossing + Byelections = Carney majority?
Mar 12, 2026
A deep dive into Lori Idlout’s move to the Liberals and how it shifts the House math. A clear breakdown of the upcoming by‑elections and what three seats could mean for a majority. Analysis of recent national and Alberta polls showing Liberal momentum. Updates on NDP leadership fundraising and a playful political history quiz for fun.
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Liberals One Floor Crossing From Majority
- The Liberals are within reach of a majority primarily because of recent floor-crossings and favourable by-election math.
- Lori Idlout's switch moved the Liberals to 170 seats and combined with three upcoming by-elections could raise them to 172–174 seats, changing committee dynamics.
One Seat Changes Committee Control
- A single extra seat beyond the 172 technical majority materially matters for House mechanics, not just optics.
- Reaching 173 (e.g., winning Terrebonne) removes tie reliance on the Speaker and allows the government to change committee ratios.
Recent Wave Of Unusual Floor Crossings
- Four MPs crossing the floor in a few months is highly unusual in Canadian federal politics.
- Philippe and Éric note the last comparable wave was during the 1917 conscription crisis, underlining the rarity.