Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
41 snips
Nov 20, 2025 • 1h 2min
AI’s CapEx Frenzy Hits Wall of Fed Hawkishness | Weekly Roundup
This week, the hosts tackle NVIDIA's impressive earnings and its major impact on the AI landscape. The conversation shifts to how rising bond issuance by tech giants is reshaping risk assessments. They explore mixed signals from the Fed and the implications for market liquidity. In the crypto space, they discuss unexpected forces driving recent downturns and potential signal changes ahead. The podcast also highlights geopolitical currency dynamics and their warning signs for global markets.
64 snips
Nov 19, 2025 • 52min
Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows
Felix Jauvin, a researcher focused on macro and cross-border capital flows, discusses the intricate dynamics of today's financial landscape. He explains how credit growth and geopolitical shifts are currently shaping liquidity more than the Federal Reserve's actions. Felix emphasizes the resilient state of household balance sheets, why recession risks remain low, and emerging trends in auto-loan stress. He also delves into cross-border capital flows and their impact on U.S. assets, alongside insights into the contrasting roles of gold and Bitcoin in today's economy.
83 snips
Nov 14, 2025 • 51min
Hawkish Fed, Credit Stress & A K-Shaped America | Weekly Roundup
Markets are feeling the pinch from a pointless government shutdown and a hawkish Fed, raising concerns about rising credit stress and over-leveraged AI companies. The discussion dives into the widening inequality in a K-shaped recovery, highlighting divergent economic experiences. With tech giants dominating the market, the hosts question whether this concentration poses national security risks. The impact of a hawkish policy on fragile conditions, along with the complexities of decentralization in Bitcoin, adds further intrigue to this week's analysis.
61 snips
Nov 12, 2025 • 1h 2min
LTCM Co-Founder on Risk, Leverage & Simplicity | Victor Haghani
Victor Haghani, co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management and founder of Elm Wealth, shares invaluable insights on risk and leverage in the investing world. He draws contrasts between LTCM's era and today's highly leveraged hedge-fund environment. Victor discusses the pitfalls of return chasing and the importance of fat tails in risk management. He emphasizes the effectiveness of his Dynamic Index Investing approach, advocating for simplicity and discipline over complexity in portfolio construction. Victor's lessons underscore the significance of long-term success and strategy commitment.
79 snips
Nov 7, 2025 • 51min
America’s Two-Tier Economy Is Breaking Down | Weekly Roundup
This week, the hosts explore America's faltering two-tier economy, highlighting stagnation on Main Street amid booming tech sectors. They delve into the struggle of the Fed to manage market imbalances and discuss how younger generations turn to crypto as an escape route from traditional systems. The impact of automation on jobs and the risks of a government shutdown are examined, alongside the evolving landscape of Bitcoin and crypto markets. Finally, the balance between fiscal policy and market distortion raises questions about the future.
8 snips
Nov 5, 2025 • 1h 10min
The Next Chapter For Blockworks | Empire
The discussion kicks off with the surprising closure of Blockworks' newsroom, highlighting the shifting landscape for crypto journalism. 2025 is framed as a pivotal year for the crypto industry, signaling a new bull market. The hosts delve into MegaETH's ICO and its implications for token distribution. Securitize's public plans and Western Union's USDPT on Solana spark intrigue, while the potential acquisition of ZeroHash by Mastercard raises strategic questions. Personal investment strategies add a touch of individual perspective to the broader industry analysis.
83 snips
Oct 31, 2025 • 56min
The Fed's Hawkish Cut & The Financial Hunger Games | Weekly Roundup
This week, the discussion dives deep into the Fed's recent meeting, exploring the end of quantitative tightening and its implications for the financial landscape. The hosts analyze the stark divergence between private and public markets, highlighting how memes and retail trading behaviors are reshaping investing dynamics. They also tackle the rising capital expenditures in AI, questioning whether this will spark new industries or lead to market bubbles. Finally, they consider the concentration of wealth and power in institutions, reflecting on the future of investing.
122 snips
Oct 29, 2025 • 58min
Deficits Are Forcing the Fed Back Into Expansion | Lyn Alden
Lyn Alden, a macro investor and author known for her insights on fiscal and monetary dynamics, discusses crucial economic factors. She explains how tariffs can slow economic growth without halting it and reveals the redistribution of interest payments favoring wealthy savers. Lyn highlights the Fed's likely return to balance sheet expansion, the K-shaped economic recovery, and the tightening labor supply due to immigration declines. With fiscal-driven inflation concerns, she shares her thoughts on the necessity of Fed rate cuts amidst these challenges.
79 snips
Oct 24, 2025 • 1h 9min
How Financialization Broke Markets & Hollowed Out America | Weekly Roundup
Hunter Hopcroft, a writer and former alternative assets professional, joins to explore the impacts of hyper-financialization on capitalism. He discusses how credit creation and passive investing have blurred the lines between debt and equity, changing market structures drastically. The conversation dives into recent volatility, the surge in gold prices as a response to economic pressures, and the influence of government policies on the market dynamics. Hunter also touches on the challenges facing public markets and the potential for a year-end rally.
80 snips
Oct 22, 2025 • 32min
Institutional Demand for Crypto is Accelerating | Matt Hougan
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, joins the discussion with insights on the booming institutional demand for crypto assets. He emphasizes the rapid growth of crypto ETFs and stablecoins, highlighting how institutions are now allocating more significantly—up to 10% in some cases. The conversation covers the evolving ETF landscape due to regulatory changes and the potential of altcoin ETFs to impact smaller chains. Moreover, Matt discusses the importance of education for retail investors as crypto becomes increasingly mainstream in traditional finance.
