Forward Guidance

To get $1,000 off an annual subscription to QI Pro, Danielle DiMartino Booth’s institutional-grade research service, go to https://quillintelligence.com/register/qi-pro-friends-of-farley/.$3,000 instead of $4,000 for the first year, offer ends in July. Interested parties may request a sample report of QI Pro by emailing Danielle DiMartino Booth at danielle@dimartinobooth.com.Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance on a mission to dispute the notion that the U.S. economy is strong.Booth challenges the apparently-rosy economic data and points to where the data is either very lagging or, as she says about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) data, “painfully corrupted.”Booth explains why she expects inflation to continue to fall very sharply, and why she expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at least one more time in July (and perhaps again in September). Filmed on June 20, 2023.--Follow Danielle: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:47) Laying Inflation To Rest(07:43) Shortages Have Become Gluts(09:32) Housing Is Strong, Right?(14:04) Hidden Cracks In The Labor Market(16:49) Official Bureau of Labor Data Is "Painfully Corrupted"(24:23) Global Economic Impulse Is Disinflationary(28:56) Liquidity Is NOT Increasing, Says Danielle(35:04) QI Pro Discount(39:06) Fed Will Likely Hike Rates In July (And Maybe September), Says Danielle--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s special guest is a true expert in global money. Robert McCauley’s life work on the international monetary system is authoritative and seminal, and he joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang to answer questions such as:- how do Eurodollars actually work?- is the rest of the world long or short dollars? (the answer may surprise you)- how does the level of the dollar mechanically impact offshore dollar credit?McCauley confirms many rumors about Eurodollars (offshore dollars), as well as debunks several of their myths. He shares his view on the dollar’s role in the future of global money, and he details the astronomically large sums in the FX swap market used to hedge dollar exposure. McCauley also asks Joseph Wang a question about the fall of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) and the rise of SOFR (secured overnight financing rate). Filmed on June 21, 2023.Robert McCauley is the Senior Fellow at the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. He previously served as senior advisor to the monetary & economics department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as well as at the New York Fed.--Robert McCauley’s Eighth Edition of “Manias, Panics, and Crashes”:https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/03/22/manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/On Amazon:https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/303116007XRobert McCauley’s papers referenced during the show:“The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions”:https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/02/09/the-global-domain-of-the-dollar-eight-questions/“Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing”:https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf“Seven decades of international banking”:https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2109e.pdf“The International Economic and Financial Order After the Pandemic and War,” pages 123-128:https://media.iese.edu/research/pdfs/76606.pdf“London as a financial centre since Brexit: evidence from the 2022 BIS Triennial Survey”: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull65.pdfJoseph Wang’s latest piece on SOFR (paywalled): https://fedguy.com/long-live-sofr/--Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(01:33) Origin Of The Eurodollar System(19:46) Eurodollar Deposits Rarely Take Losses, But Silicon Valley Bank's Eurodollars Are In Limbo And May Be Lost(26:12) Can Non-U.S. Banks Print Dollar Deposits At Will?(39:50) Banking As A Percentage of GDP Peaked Many Years Ago(43:14) Is The Rest Of The World Long Dollars, Or Short Dollars?(53:49) Is The De-Dollarization Narrative Just A Lot Of Hot Air?(01:11:49) Who's Going To Buy U.S. Treasurys?(01:20:38) The Dollar's Role Does Not Give The U.S. An "Exorbitant Privilege"(01:24:29) $35 Trillion Dollar Hidden Debt Via FX Swaps(01:38:05) Robert McCauley's Question For Joseph Wang On SOFR & LIBOR--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what it’s like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol). Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023.--Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://twitter.com/KsidiiiFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Ambrus’ paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options:https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling+False+Narratives+About+0DTE+Options.pdf--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:16) Market Volatility Is At A Three-Year Low(07:34) Implied Volatility Could Go Even Lower(15:14) Tail Risk Strategies(36:01) The Stunning Rise Of Zero Days To Expiration (0DTE) Options(41:29) Huge Amounts Of Unregulated Leverage In 0DTE Options(52:31) Market Crash Is "Inevitable" Because Of Zero Day To Expiration Options(01:04:14) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk(01:07:52) Performance Reporting of Tail Fund Risk Funds--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiMFollow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX__This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week.With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!—Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_—Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/—Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity.--Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercapFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market(07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here?(27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn(32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples(40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan(47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds(54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds(56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates?(01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us(01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System(01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual"(01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections(01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC)(01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up)(01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Louis Camhi, founder and chief investment officer of RLH Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to provide a strategic update on the world of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies).___Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalystFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos___Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:58) "A Lot Of The Optionality of SPACs Is Dead"(17:25) State of SPAC Dealflow In Summer 2023(32:08) Warrant Arbitrage(59:43) SPAC LIquidiation Wave in December 2022 Because of Stock Buyback Tax Threat In Inflation Reduction Act(01:06:49) "SPACs Are A Bull Market Product"(01:20:02) How SPAC Yields Have Changed With RIsing Interest Rates(01:29:17) Macroeconomic Implications(01:32:07) View on Banks(01:38:26) Cannabis___Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionlessResearch, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplan’s website: https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing(01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting)(05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes(06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress?(15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves(16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present(24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt?(25:10) Future Economic Outlook(29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil(39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle(41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve(50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now(53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)?(55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy(59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital(01:02:41) Closing Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing.Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFundsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Finding Opportunities Using A Macro Trend Strategy(04:21) Why Eric Has Been Long Japan, U.S & Europe In 2023(08:54) Generating Returns Using A Quantitative Strategy(15:27) How Market Structure Has Changed Since The 1980's(18:06) Shorting Oil In 2023(20:45) Permissionless(21:22) Market Hedging(27:53) Market Liquidity(29:49) Launching Standpoint In 2020(33:18) Artificial Intelligence(39:49) Blockworks Research(40:49) Harvesting Risk Premium(49:51) Eric's Principles For Successful Trading(55:19) What Will AI's Role Be In Financial Markets?(59:39) The Psychology Of Macro Trend(01:03:39) Gold--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.