Forward Guidance

Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now “cautiously bullish” on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabia’s significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023.____Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_JohnstonFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Johnston’s latest Substacks on Commodity Context:https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9____Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:21) An "Exhausting" Oil Market(02:59) The Cautious Bull Case For Oil(11:28) OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices(24:20) Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop?(31:36) Guyana(34:22) Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies(49:13) The Russian Supply Question(54:55) Price Cap(59:02) Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil(01:03:10) The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls(01:09:02) Futures Curve(01:15:07) Recession Risk____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023.Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) Introduction(00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up(11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability?(20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate(29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits(38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending(46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending(49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No!(01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen?(01:06:34) When Recession?—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode Michael Robbins, CIO of Larson Financial & Professor Of Quantitative Investing at Columbia University joins the show for a discussion on the quantitative investing strategy.Authoring the book "Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing" Michael takes us back to the very basics in answering what is quantitive investing, what actually causes markets to go up, why most investors are NOT stock pickers and how a quantitive strategy can help manage risk & create sizeable returns. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Referenced In The Show:Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29076Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing: http://quantitativeassetmanagement.com/--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:39) What Is Quantitative Investing?(02:24) Selling Fast & Buying Slow(05:26) What Causes Stocks To Go Up?(09:02) Are Rising Rates Actually Bad For Stocks?(15:11) Stock vs Bond Arbitrage Strategies(17:37) The VXX ETF(24:11) Most People Are NOT Stock Pickers(29:54) Risk Management(35:14) What Are The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make?(44:31) Being Early Is The Same As Being Wrong(49:37) What Indicators Are Worth Following With A Quantitative Strategy?(56:41) Liquidity(01:00:07) The Five Factors Of Investing(01:05:55) Investing Using Artificial Intelligence--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming plans to increase capital requirements for U.S. banks. Filmed on July 11, 2023.____Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Kelly’s latest “Without Warning” Substack: https://www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-story-of-svb-isnt-just____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(02:45) Bank Capital Ratios, Explained(18:52) Busting Myths About Banks' Interest Rate Hedging(38:15) Accounting For Unrealized Losses(46:56) How Much Money Is Leaving the Banking System?(54:16) U.S. Banking System Is "Stable But More Fragile"(01:02:47) The Basel III Endgame(01:05:54) Interest Rates And Financial Stability____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vítor Constâncio witnessed firsthand severe recessions, inflationary bouts, and a global financial crisis, as former Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) (2010 to 2018) and Governor of The Bank of Portugal (1985-1986, 2000-2010). He brings this considerable experience to examine the current challenges facing central bankers at the ECB as well as the Fed.Constâncio argues that while U.S. inflation is driven by a strong demand generated by loose fiscal policy, the primary agent of European inflation was the surge in energy prices in 2022. However, he recognizes that what began as supply-side pressure has broadened out to other sectors of the Euro area economy, so the ECB’s hiking of interest rates to 4% was necessary. Constancio expects that a mild recession in Europe will tame inflation and that substantial further rate hikes from the ECB will likely not be needed. Filmed on July 6, 2023.____Follow Vítor Constâncio on Twitter https://twitter.com/VMRConstancioFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:48) Euro Area Inflation Is Mostly Due To Energy Shock, Not Demand(08:13) I Would Support A Pause In Interest Rate Hikes, Says Constancio(10:11) Recession In Europe Is Likely For 2023(14:35) ECB Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates During A Mild Recession(16:20) There Pressure on The European Central Bank (ECB) To Follow The Federal Reserve?(20:44) Exploring The Logic Of Negative Interest Rates(25:29) Interest Rates' Impact On The Economy(32:04) Fixed vs. Floating Mortgages(34:48) ECB's Reaction Function During The 2008 Great Financial Crisis(44:16) Recent Bank Failures (Silicon Valley Bank)(49:51) Credit Suisse(51:51) Basel III Regulation of Held-To-Matuity Accounts and Interest Rate Hedging(54:47) Fighting Inflation In 1970s Portugal____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023.After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:52) The State Of Airlines In 2023(03:09) How The Pandemic Impacted The Airline Industry(10:32) We're Not Seeing An Economic Slowdown Yet(20:40) International Travel(25:06) Why Airlines Aren't A Great Business(29:15) The Airline Industry Would Have Gone Bankrupt If Not For Government Assistance(36:20) The State Of Freight In 2023(51:44) Consolidation In The Freight Industry(57:40) What Can Freight Tell Us About The U.S Economy?(01:10:02) How Do Airlines Hedge?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.” Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.“The Price of Time”: https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069____Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitter https://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=enFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featuredJoseph Wang’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles(11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard(18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad(30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital(37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity(45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos(46:44) Unicorns and Zombies(54:20) Elite Overproduction(57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go?____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June.What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S.Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the “lender of second-to-last resort.” Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SEC’s move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFR’s replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023.____Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudgeFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Kathryn Judge’s book, “Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source”: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct“The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort”: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven"(03:06) What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System?(07:24) Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s(11:22) Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And Glass–Steagall)(17:31) FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC)(25:14) "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances"(33:54) FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop(34:28) Permissionless(41:24) What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like?(50:38) Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations(53:42) Blockworks Research(54:42) Held-To-Maturity Accounting(58:37) The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business(01:06:00) SEC's War With Crypto(01:08:04) The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

--On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets.Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023.Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboyFollow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenHFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(06:37) Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023(13:47) Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply?(23:43) Forecasting Oil Prices(31:05) European Gas Prices(33:37) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball(38:41) Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis(41:34) Chinese Oil Demand(01:01:33) Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market(01:17:23) Oil Has Further Downside Risk(01:24:13) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiMFollow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX__This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week.As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing? —Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_—Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/—Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.