Disorder

This week we examine the regional roles played by Egypt and Iran and discuss British diplomacy towards those countries over the last decade or so. Iran and Egypt offer a fascinating study in contrasts – in terms of their dealings with Israel and Hamas, as well as their posturing relative to the outside world.   So who better to help us understand these countries regional role than Alex’s former boss, Sir Geoffrey Adams, who served as British Ambassador both to Iran (2006-9) and to Egypt (2018-21). He served  also as Consul General in Jerusalem, the representative to the Palestinian Authority; as Foreign Office Director for the Middle East, and as DG Political – the chief political advisor in the Foreign Office. He is now an honorary lecturer at the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews.  Sir Geoffrey relates his experiences of how diplomacy ‘feels’ in Tehran and Cairo and explains why medium powers like Egypt and Iran cannot be dictated to by disunited Western powers. Alex and Jason try to Order the Disorder by discussing Iran’s role as a disordering power, Egypt’s role as a mediating one, and why the medium powers in the region need to step up.  Twitter: @DisorderShow Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/disorderpod/   Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links   Sir Geoffrey’s FCDO bio is available hereHis ‘Reflections on the Arab Spring Ten Years On’ can be accessed here  For more on the role of Iran as Disorderer please consult Ali Ansari in Ep4 here For more on the regional role of Egypt and why Gaza is existential for Egypt according to Nathan Brown: pls consult in Ep16. The Struggle for Leadership of the Islamic World here  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jason Pack and Alexandra Hall Hall open with their thoughts on the EU’s strengths and weaknesses – concluding that the old adage, ‘The EU is an economic colossus and a political pygmy’, is not too far off. To investigate how the EU leverages its trade clout, Alex interviews John Clarke – a British national who worked for more than 30 years as a trade negotiator for the EU. John tells us the tricks of the trade: how the US would steal trade dossiers during negotiations, how the psychology of negotiations works, and how the devil is in the details of free trade agreements.  He also describes how the EU’s trade treaties are like the different reciprocal drinking arrangements down at the pub. And of course, John gives Alex an insider’s perspective of ‘what went wrong’ over Brexit. In Ordering the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss the lack of specific training that US and UK Ambassadors receive about negotiations, how the EU must navigate a fine line between the US and China, and how the rise of Neo-Populism in Europe could spell the end to EU’s trade negotiating prowess.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe  Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links For more visit hereRead more about Europe’s Trade Ambitions hereFor more on the EU’s recent New Zealand trade deal visit hereFind more on the tensions at play within EU read "Poland opposes extension of EU trade preferences for Ukraine” here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the Houthis attack ships in the Red Sea, Arthur Snell and Jason explore: 1) How this horrible crisis is actually an opportunity to create a coalition of orderers; 2) how Iran is not really able to use the Houthis as a proxy; 3) how one interpretation of the Houthi actions is as ‘global disordering’ rather than specifically supporting the Palestinians or a given outcome in Gaza; and 4) how there is an opportunity for a uniquely constructive role for Britain, drawing on its credibility and experience in protecting global shipping especially in a context where China refuses to engage.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe  Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  A good intro to Yemeni history from Time’s ‘Made by History’ can be found here. What the US is doing here What the UK is doing by Elisabeth Braw here And what some think the US and UK should be doing here Context around Anti-Semitism in Yemen here Role of Saudi here Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast, Behind the Lines here  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Guests Jason Pack, Alexandra Hall Hall, and Sam Bright discuss corruption in plain sight in both Britain and Libya. They delve into topics such as 'pay for access' corruption in the British establishment, the failed Golden Visa Programme, cozy relationships between the British media and cabinet ministers, and how subsidies in Libya encourage corruption. They also explore deterrence of corruption in British politics and the cultural phenomenon of corruption in government policymaking, using Libya as a case study.

In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by Arthur Snell, and they speak to Professor Naho Mirumachi. Naho is a specialist on the politics of the environment. She is particularly interested in ‘the wars that were not fought’ over water usage. The trio discuss: what lessons can be learnt from international governance of water usage and other related collective action challenges, will there actually be ‘Water Wars’ in the future, and the challenges of international coordination over the usage of water. Expanding outwards from historical and contemporary examples of water conflict and water sharing in the Nile Basin and Mekong Delta, the hosts ask Naho: given climate change and aridification, will there be enough fresh water to sustain a world population of 10 billion humans for the long term future?  In the Ordering the Disorder segment, the trio conclude that major states just tend not to fight over water. Or at least they haven’t as of yet. In fact, water diplomacy has been surprisingly successful over the past few decades and may point to certain lessons concerning how to incentivize optimal compromises in other fields like tax, security, or borders.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe  Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  Get Naho’s book Water: A Critical Introduction (Wiley) here Read NAHO’s writing at Valuing water: a difficult but crucial step towards greater water justice here Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast, Behind the Lines, here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the 1st of January 2024, BRICS (an international forum of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), are welcoming in new members to form BRICS+. In this episode, Alex Hall Hall talks with Anjali Bhatt about what the bloc aims to achieve and what the addition of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the UAE might entail for the organization. They’ll also discuss Argentina’s new disruptive leader, why he might withdraw from BRICS+, and whether the expansion could mean the strengthening of disordering powers (like China).  In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jason and Alex discuss whether the West should take BRICS+ seriously as a global force, what some of their ideas might mean for global economics, and whether the institution of BRICS+ will function more as an ordering force or more as a disordering one.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe  Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links No One Knows What BRICS Expansion Means by Anjali Bhatt here And for a broader overview of BRICS, its history, and role in the world, pls consult here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In our Christmas special, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall look back at the first year of the disorder pod, and forecast a bit about the next. They discuss 2024 as a record-breaking year of global elections, answer some listeners’ questions about topics like Central Asia, Gaza, Western hypocrisy, and Palestinian History.  They also share a bit about themselves, their families’ holiday menus, and their escape routes. Like, who knew that Alex likes doing puzzles so much and that Jason is a super fan of the Netflix show Fauda.  During the Ordering the Disorder Segment, they discuss why we urgently need to get the Christmas spirit back into diplomacy.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links At the start and end of the podcast, we heard some lovely Xmas music from Evoke, a London-based vocal ensemble founded and directed by Victoria Ely. Full credits: Pat-a-pan: traditional Burgundian carol, arranged by David Conte. Jingle Bells: arranged by Audrey Snyder Music performed by Evoke, directed by Victoria Ely Facebook: www.facebook.com/evokemusicuk Youtube: www.youtube.com/@evoke1439 Website: www.evokemusic.org/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Alex and Jason investigate if major Islamic nations can exercise global leadership over the Israel-Palestine conflict and propose implementable solutions. They also examine the leverage that Arab Gulf States now have over the West, in general, and Britian, in specific. Jason talks to James M. Dorsey, host of the Turbulent World podcast, to investigate three of the principal countries battling simultaneously for leadership of the Islamic World and to set the direction of ‘moderate’ Islam in the 21st century: the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia.   Zooming in on how these dynamics bear upon the diplomacy surrounding the Gaza conflict, Jason speaks with Nathan Brown; a keen observer of Palestinian politics over the last six decades. They explore how the Palestinian question has traditionally been connected to both struggles over Muslim identity and leadership of the Islamic world. They analyse how the current struggle for Islamic Leadership could actually provide opportunities to forge solutions to the Israel-Gaza conflict. At the end of the show, Jason and Alex return to the question of what it means that the UK has become ever more reliant on money from the Gulf States, and whether that’s taken away any leverage the West may have over these countries in the current conflict.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/struggle-for-global-leadership   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  Listen to James M. Dorsey’s podcast, The Turbulent World here Nathan’s first gloomy premonition, “There Might Be No Day After in Gaza here And his “Arab Peace Initiative II: How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine” here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week’s episode, Jason and Alex are joined by Kurt Volker, former US Ambassador to NATO and former US’s Special Representative to Ukraine. The wide-ranging discussion tries to unpick NATO’s role in our increasingly disordered world. They also examine what makes NATO successful where the UN and other international organizations falter. They discuss both the 2023 NATO summit in Lithuania and the 2023 Tbilisi International Conference, entitled “Defeating Putinism.” They also look forward to next year’s supremely important NATO summit in Washington with bated breath. That moment not only marks 75 years since NATO’s creation, but it ‘should be’ the moment that NATO offers Ukraine concrete steps to membership. Plus: they look at the late Senator John McCain’s legacy and the US’s role in NATO, as the momentous 2024 election approaches.   Alex and Jason Order the Disorder by postulating why Ukraine needs to join NATO as soon as possible – even if the war with Russia is still ongoing.  Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/nato-and-adversaries   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  Previous episode on NATO here Read Kurt Volker’s NATO assessments here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this bonus episode, Jason discusses his mom’s Thanksgiving stuffing recipe as he is joined by our roving correspondent – David Patrikarakos – who missed Turkey Day in London choosing to go to Ukraine and Gaza instead. The pair ‘drone’ on about the use of Iranian Shahid drones in both conflicts, the similarities and differences in the moral and military calculus in Ukraine as opposed to Gaza, and how today’s easy access to technology means traditionally lesser military powers can achieve a modicum of leveling up with their more 1st world opponents. The pair also try to step away from the current news cycle to debunk some historical misconceptions about both conflicts.  In the Ordering the Disorder segment, the discuss the role of historical narratives and mythmaking, the West’s need to hold the line in the Ukraine, and why there are no easy solutions for the day after the War in Gaza.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  More on David’s recent trip to Ukraine here  And his thoughts on the chances of a regional Middle Eastern escalation here And back to Jason’s solutions, ‘The Road to Middle East Peace Runs Through Doha’ here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices