Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/01/06/a-very-unlikely-chess-game/ Almost 25 years after Kasparov vs. Deep Blue, another seminal man vs. machine matchup: Neither competitor has much to be proud of here. White has a poor opening. Black screws up and loses his queen for no reason. A few moves later, white screws up and loses his rook for no reason. Better players will no doubt spot other humiliating mistakes. But white does eventually eke out a victory. And black does hold his own through most of the game. White is me. My excuse is that I only play chess once every couple of years, plus I'm entering moves on an ASCII board I can barely read. Black is GPT-2. Its excuse is that it's a text prediction program with no concept of chess. As far as it knows, it's trying to predict short alphanumeric strings like "e2e4" or "Nb7". Nobody told it this represents a board game. It doesn't even have a concept of 2D space that it could use to understand such a claim. But it still captured my rook! Embarrassing!

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/01/05/hardball-questions-for-the-next-debate-2020/ [Previously: Hardball Questions (2016), More Hardball Questions (2016). I stole parts of the Buttigieg question from Twitter, but don't remember enough details to give credit, sorry] Mr. Biden: Your son Hunter Biden was on the board of directors of Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company, during your vice-presidential term. The Ukrainian government was investigating Burisma for misdeeds, and Hunter was allegedly one of the targets of the investigation. President Trump alleges that you used your clout as VP to shut down the investigation into Hunter, which if true would constitute an impeachable abuse of power. My question for you is: if your son had been a daughter, would you have named her Gatherer? Mr. Bloomberg: You've been criticized as puritanical and self-righteous for some of your more restrictive policies, like a ban on large sodas. You seem to lean into the accusation, stating in a 2014 interview that: I am telling you, if there is a God, when I get to heaven I'm not stopping to be interviewed. I am heading straight in. I have earned my place in heaven. It's not even close. Let's not focus on what this says about your humility, or about your religious beliefs. I want to focus on a different issue. Despite spending $100 million in the first month of your presidential campaign, you are currently placed fifth – behind two socialists, a confused old man, and the mayor of South Bend, Indiana. In, let's not forget, an increasingly shaky effort to prevent President Donald J. Trump from winning a second term. So my question for you is: what makes you so sure you're not in Hell already?

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/01/02/why-doctors-think-theyre-the-best/ Ninety percent of drivers think they're above-average drivers, ninety percent of professors think they're above-average professors etc. The relevant studies are paywalled, so I don't know if I should trust them. Our recent discussion of therapy books would make more sense if ninety percent of therapists believed they were above-average therapists. I don't know about that one either. But I am pretty sure ninety percent of doctors believe they're above-average doctors. Here are some traps I've noticed myself falling into that might help explain why: 1. Your patients' last doctor was worse than you. Think about it; if somebody has a good doctor, they'll stay with them, and you will never see that patient. If somebody has a bad doctor, they'll go see another doctor instead. That other doctor might be you. So your current patients' last doctor will be worse than average. But this is where most of your chance to compare yourself with other doctors comes from: "my patient's last doctor misdiagnosed them, but I got it right" or "my patient hated their last doctor but says I'm much better". See also You Are Not Hiring The Top 1%.

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/12/30/please-take-the-2020-ssc-survey/ Please take the 2020 Slate Star Codex Survey. The survey helps me learn more about SSC readers and plan community events. But it also provides me with useful informal research data for questions I'm interested it, which I then turn into interesting posts. My favorite was 2018's Fight Me, Psychologists: Birth Order Effects Exist And Are Very Strong, which I think made a real contribution to individual differences psychology and which could not have happened without your cooperation. But last year I also got to debunk a myth about how mathematicians eat corn, fail to replicate supposed dangers of beef jerky, and test a theory of how fetishes form. I expect this year's research to be even more interesting. The survey is open to anyone who has ever read a post on this blog before December 30 2019. Please don't avoid taking the survey just because you feel like you're not enough of a "regular". It will ask you how much of a "regular" you are, so there's no risk you'll "dilute" the results. The survey will stay open until mid-January, and I will probably be begging and harassing you to take it about once a week or so until then.

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/12/26/please-vote-for-acc-winner/ I've now posted all eight adversarial collaborations. In case you missed any, you can find a list of them (with links) here. If you have read all the collaborations, please vote on your favorite. This year I will decide the winner by popular vote; I don't feel like putting my finger on the scale this time. I will give $2000 to the first place winner and $500 to second place. You can vote for your favorite collaboration here. No, you may not vote for the Grinch. Thanks again to all participants, readers, and voters.

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/12/25/acc-how-much-significance-should-we-ascribe-to-spiritual-experiences/ [This is an entry to the 2019 Adversarial Collaboration Contest by Jeremiah Gruenberg and Seth Schoen] 1. Introduction This project seeks to explore the viability of spiritual or religious experiences as empirical evidence for a component of reality that transcends or is radically different from our ordinary experience. The question at hand is not the existence of God or higher powers, nor the failures, successes, or benefits of religion, but rather the role of spiritual experience in the human understanding of the nature of reality. We formulated the topic in controversy this way: The empirical study of the content and nature of people's personal spiritual experiences justifies taking them seriously as evidence of an important component of human life deserving of individual and collective exploration. Our fellow human beings have always had unusual experiences that they found special and meaningful, but often struggled to interpret or place in the context of their ordinary lives. These experiences and their interpretation have aroused intense controversy, both because people have deployed them as support for their views on contested issues about the nature of reality, and because they may arise in settings where one could easily question whether the brain's altered perceptions and understandings are enhanced or impaired. Another source of debate is how radically different individuals' experiences—and their personal interpretations of the origins and meanings of those experiences—can be. Finally, spiritual experiences are often reported through a cultural lens that leads to questions about how accurately and objectively people could perceive and describe the unusual things that they perceived. We emphasize that there is no question, even from the most skeptical perspective, of insisting that individuals alter their own views or memories of what they have witnessed (although we encourage people to question their interpretations and to become aware of factors that could raise doubts about those interpretations). What is rational or plausible for each person to believe at a particular moment can be different, and in any case the way that people interpret their own experience and history will be different. If you have had a spiritual experience whose nature and meaning you find evident and certain, others may offer you alternative interpretations and evidence against your view, but can't demand that you change it. However, we find it interesting to consider what lessons others can draw from accounts of unusual experiences and perceptions: not so much what sort of evidence your own spiritual experiences may constitute for you, but rather what sort of evidence your accounts of them may constitute for others. Can we collectively learn anything from these experiences?

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/12/24/acc-should-you-have-a-merry-christmas/ [This is an entry to the 2019 Adversarial Collaboration Contest by Cindy Lou Who and the Grinch] Christmas Day is a a time full of laughter and cheer which is held in the West at the end of each year. Believers in Jesus traditionally think the day marks his birth; scientists disagree. They point to the shepherds; when carolers sing about fields full of sheep, that occurs in the spring. The Star of the Magi provides further doubt. Simulations can tell us what star it's about: it was most likely Jupiter shining near Saturn, but it's only in autumn one sees such a pattern. It is proven in space and it's proven on Earth – Christmas isn't the real time of Jesus' birth. One of the most popular Yule celebrations is handing out gifts to one's friends and relations. Parents offer the story these presents appeared due to Santa, a jolly old man with a beard. Originally a historical saint, his tale was embellished, with little restraint. He flies through the air in a reindeer-pulled sleigh, and visits all households on Earth in a day. This tradition seems pagan, with some scholars noting the details are pulled from a legend of Odin. Though sources like NORAD appear to support Santa's presence, we think that their data fall short. After reading the pros and the cons, we both feel the consensus perspective is Santa's not real. And what are these gifts' economics effects? According to Goeddeke and Birg, it's complex. Since presents are valuable, one might assume that their giving would cause stores and markets to boom. You give to your parents! You give to your boss! But economists say it is all deadweight loss. You would spend the same money on something, you see, and presents are chosen incompetently. Others' preferences aren't as clear as our own, so when we buy for others, their needs are unknown. Presents don't increase welfare and don't increase growth; all the papers agree they are harmful to both.

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/12/23/acc-will-automation-lead-to-economic-crisis/ [This is an entry to the 2019 Adversarial Collaboration Contest by Doug Summers-Stay and Erusian] Adversarial collaboration on the question: "Automation/AI will not lead to a general, sustained economic crisis within our lifetimes or for the foreseeable future. Automation/AI's effects into the future will have effects similar to technology's effects in the past and, on the whole, follow the general trend." Defending the proposition: Erusian Challenging the proposition: Doug Summers-Stay tldr: Until the pace of automation increases faster than new jobs can be created, AI shouldn't be expected to cause mass unemployment or anything like that. When AI can pick up a new job as quickly and cheaply as a person can, then the economy will break (but everything else will break too, because that would be the Singularity). Introduction As software and hardware grow more capable each year, many are concerned that automation of jobs will lead to some sort of economic crisis. This could take the form of permanent high levels of unemployment, wages that drop below subsistence levels for many workers, or an abrupt change to a different economic system in response to these conditions.

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/12/22/a-maximally-lazy-guide-to-giving-to-charity-in-2019/ [Sorry for the interruption; we will return to our regularly scheduled Adversarial Collaboration Contest tomorrow.] [Epistemic status: I'm linking evaluations made by people I mostly trust, but there are many people who don't trust these, I haven't 100% evaluated them perfectly, and if your assumptions differ even a little from those of the people involved these might not be very helpful. If you don't know what effective altruism is, you might want to find out before supporting it. Like I said, this is for maximally lazy people and everyone else might want to investigate further.] If you're like me, you resolved to donate money to charity this year, and are just now realizing that the year is going to end soon and you should probably get around to doing it. Also, you support effective altruism. Also, you are very lazy. This guide is for you. The maximally lazy way to donate to effective charity is probably to donate to EA Funds. This is a group of funds run by the Center for Effective Altruism where they get experts to figure out what are the best charities to give your money to each year. The four funds are Global Health, Animal Welfare, Long-Term Future, and Effective Altruism Meta/Community. If you are truly maximally lazy, you can just donate an equal amount to all four of them; if you have enough energy to shift a set of little sliders, you can decide which ones get more or less.

Link: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/12/19/acc-when-during-fetal-development-does-abortion-become-morally-wrong/ [This is an entry to the 2019 Adversarial Collaboration Contest by BlockOfNihilism and Icerun] Note: For simplicity, we have constrained our analysis of data about pregnancy and motherhood to the United States. We note that these data are largely dependent on the state of the medical and social support systems that are available in a particular region. Introduction: Review of abortion and pregnancy data in the United States We agreed that it was important to first reach an understanding about the general facts of abortion, pregnancy and motherhood in the US prior to making ethical assertions. To understand abortion rates and distributions, we reviewed data obtained by the CDC's Abortion Surveillance System (1). The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS), Pregnancy Mortality Surveillance System (PMSS) and National Vital Statistics datasets were used to evaluate the medical hazards imposed by pregnancy (2, 3, 4). Finally, we examined a number of studies performed on the Turnaway Study cohort, maintained by UCSF, to investigate the economic effects of denying wanted abortions to women (5, 6, 7, 13).