Eurodollar University

Is "inflation" back? A big part of the answer to that question comes from the oil market, though not at all in the way you might think. A revisit of the 2008 crude oil bubble/shock to see what it can tell us about a lot more than consumer prices in 2024.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisOPEC March 2024 Announcementhttps://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htmRemarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke October 21, 2004https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20041021/James D. Hamilton Brookings Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2009a_bpea_hamilton-1.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Today is the last day for new loans from the Fed's BTFP, and there is still $165 billion being borrowed from it. In fact, that balance increased just last week. What are the implications of the shutdown? We keep coming back to the same factor which was all over last March. And with CRE looming in the background, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

As serious economic weakness begins to increasingly show itself, the Fed is going to pivot and thereby try to sell the public on lower rates as somehow being something positive. A small bit of economy insurance and nothing more. And they'll point to 1995 as for why. In reality, this is already nothing like thirty years ago.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence for US recession and labor market woes are getting much stronger. While everyone fixates on the growing absurdity of the payroll revisions, the CPS data threw up THREE very strong recession signals, each historically validated, showing this isn't a short-term fluctuation or narrow, isolated occurrence. Plus, a fourth signal that is entire consistent with those other three. Employment recession changes everything.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Full Disclosure: Jeff has worked with Mr. Saxe as a trustee for a stablecoin project Ryne is the COO for. The mainstream image of cryptocurrencies is cowboys and charlatans playing around with technology that doesn't seem to have any practical use. Kids are getting rich - many going broke - on what can appear to be trivial functions. Reality couldn't be farther from the truth. As Ryne points out, one key problem is that those who are indeed making a good-faith effort at making something and making it work are losing at the narrative. Worse, the government is no help (no surprise). Even so, there is tremendous progress being made right now in turning these digital projects into useful, usable money. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's 10-year government bond yield just reached a 20-year low. UST yields are moving down again. What does it all mean; more importantly why do we need to care? It isn't just the signal bond curves provide, it is just as much the lack of direct access to the information we truly need. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript February 1999https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19990203meeting.pdfBIS CGFS Papers No 65 US dollar funding: an international perspectivehttps://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs65.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence continues to show we're in half a recession already. There is a huge discrepancy between the "strong" US employment in the media and what's actually happening. Even mainstream sources are being forced to deal with how different the jobs market is to those actually experiencing it. These aren't isolated cases or stories, the data backing them up continues to pile up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Economists say the labor market is strong — but job seekers don’t share that confidence. Here’s whyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/why-it-feels-so-hard-to-get-a-job-right-now.htmlInsight Global https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unemployed-and-unmotivated-new-survey-finds-that-over-half-of-unemployed-americans-are-feeling-the-job-hunt-burnout-big-time-301909524.htmlReddit r/jobshttps://www.reddit.com/r/jobs/comments/16aetk9/the_job_market_is_awful_2023/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold is high but not on Waller. Fed Governor Chris Waller seems to have sparked the most recent jump in the metal, with people jumping all over their inference of some incoming Reverse Operation Twist. Untangling the fedspeak from so many huge misconceptions about gold - it is a TERRIBLE inflation hedge, as you'll see - in order to make sense of another legit red flag. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Christopher Waller Thoughts on Quantitative Tightening, Including Remarks on the Paper "Quantitative Tightening around the Globe: What Have We Learned?"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240301a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's bad enough that China's shakiest real estate firms are going to be creating big losses and not just for other Chinese financials. Now comes word the last remaining investment grade developer is rumored to be experiencing liquidity trouble, too. It is a sign of further progress - in the wrong direction. We need to understand what it means when Beijing is this impotent.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Digital technology is revolutionizing every aspect of our lives, now including money. The first in a three-part series as Jeff travels to ETH Denver, the world's preeminent Ethereum conference, to start digging in to digital with those who are actually doing it, the insiders. Up first, world-renowned scholar, investor and, yes, philosopher-historian Manny Rincon Cruz.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Manny Rincon Cruz