ARC ENERGY IDEAS

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter are joined by Marcus Rocque, Vice President of Research at the ARC Energy Research Institute. This episode focuses on how the oil and gas shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the outlook for clean energy, including how governments are rationing oil and gas use through policies such as work-from-home measures and lower speed limits. There is already evidence of increasing sales of alternatives, including EVs, heat pumps, and electric cookstoves. The shortage, however, is also expected to increase demand for coal as an alternative in countries like India and China, which have abundant domestic resources that provide energy security. The podcast discusses whether this could change long-term demand for oil and gas and the implications for Canada. They also consider some of the latest news in Canada, including last week’s visit to Ottawa by IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, and reports that the federal government is proposing to reverse the order of environmental approvals, allowing cabinet to green-light projects prior to the completion of technical assessments and approvals, along with implementing a maximum one-year review period. Finally, Premier Danielle Smith also traveled to Ottawa last week and left with a confident message about the delivery of the MOU.Content referenced in this podcast:Globe and Mail, “Canada should accelerate new energy infrastructure as market shifts, IEA chief says” (May 4, 2026) Latitude Media, Jigar Shah, “This isn’t demand destruction. It's rationing.”  (April 24, 2026) Premier Danielle Smith’s post on X regarding her positive meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney on the MOU agreement (May 8, 2026) FT, Spencer Dale, “Why the Iran war might not spur a faster transition to low carbon energy” (May 4, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, our guest is Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, and, among other things, the host of the Oil Ground Up podcast.  Peter and Jackie open the show with highlights from the federal government’s economic update, Polymarket bets on the Middle East conflict, and the shift in AI companies toward pay-per-use models over unlimited access. They then turn to oil markets, asking Rory: What’s your take on the UAE’s announcement about leaving OPEC? You recently wrote on your Commodity Context Substack that the oil market reaction has been shockingly sanguine; why? How do you interpret broader equity markets trading near all-time highs? What might upstream oil and gas investment in the Middle East look like under a fragile post-conflict scenario? With some Western countries shutting down refineries and becoming more reliant on imported products, which is now obviously a vulnerability, do you expect renewed investment in refining capacity? And in Canada’s pipeline debate, with expansions and greenfield projects proposed, which direction should be prioritized: routes to the U.S. or west-coast access to tidewater and Asian markets?Content referenced in this podcast: Futurism, “Bosses Are Blowing More Money on AI Agents Than It’d Cost Them to Just Pay Human Workers” (April 27, 2026) Rory Johnson on Commodity Context, “Sanguine Strait Stoppage” (April 23, 2026) Oil Ground Up PodcastPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

The podcast opens with major news: Shell’s agreement to acquire ARC Resources, signaling strong confidence in LNG Canada Phase 2, the broader Canadian LNG sector, and the quality of the Montney resource. It also marks a shift, as this is the first major multinational acquisition in Canada following a long period of exits. Jackie and Peter discuss additional developments, including Minister Hodgson’s comments on major projects reaching FID or construction within a year and Prime Minister Carney’s announcement of a C$25 billion sovereign wealth fund. The episode then features the Honourable Tim Houston, Premier of Nova Scotia, who outlines Nova Scotia’s energy priorities, including offshore wind, oil and gas, and potential for onshore natural gas. Jackie and Peter ask Premier Houston: How does the recent agreement with the federal government to streamline environmental reviews affect project timelines and certainty? What are the barriers to advancing the Wind West project?  What factors led to the decline in offshore oil and gas production, and what actions is the province taking? What is the opportunity for onshore natural gas in Nova Scotia, and what is the history of the 2014 hydraulic fracturing ban? Content referenced in this podcast:ARC Resources Announces Agreement to be Acquired by Shell PLC (April 27, 2026) Globe and Mail, “Slew of new major natural resource projects will be under way by next year, Hodgson predicts” (April 24, 2026) Prime Minister Carney announces the Canada Strong Fund – Canada’s first sovereign wealth fund (April 27, 2026) The Hub.ca, “Peter Tertzakian: Want to get pipelines built? Let Canadians own a piece of the action” (April 25, 2025)  Nova Scotia Government Wind West Strategic Plan Information on Nova Scotia’s recent call for bids process for offshore oil and gas Nova Scotia onshore natural gas opportunityPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie are joined by Stewart Muir, President and CEO of Resource Works, a leading voice in Canada’s natural resource sector with a focus on British Columbia. Peter and Jackie open the episode with a discussion of the latest geopolitical developments, including escalating tensions involving Iran and the resulting volatility in oil prices over the weekend, as the Strait of Hormuz opened and then quickly closed. They also review the news of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s newly elected majority government, what it could mean for energy policy, and his recent video address, “Forward Guidance with Prime Minister Mark Carney.” The conversation then shifts to British Columbia, where Stewart provides insight into the province’s current political landscape, starting with the controversy surrounding proposed changes to B.C.’s United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA) and Premier Eby's unexpected decision not to proceed with them. Peter and Jackie also ask Stewart: Will the Major Project Office (MPO) help advance final investment decisions (FIDs) amid ongoing uncertainty around DRIPA? Is the B.C. government’s proposed royalty increase hurting the competitiveness of LNG projects and investment? Is there potential for B.C. to weaken its greenhouse gas policies to better align with federal-provincial agreements, including elements of the Alberta–Canada MOU?  What is the current level of support for oil pipeline development in B.C., including among Premier Eby and Indigenous communities, particularly along the northern route?  With B.C. increasingly importing electricity and facing potential supply shortages in the future, what are the options to expand generation capacity?Content referenced in this podcast: YouTube, Forward Guidance with Prime Minister Mark Carney (April 19, 2026) Power Struggle Podcast with Stewart Muir Financial Post Opinion by Deborah Yedlin: The world has an energy problem and Canada is the solution (April 6, 2026)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Rich Kruger, CEO of Suncor Energy, leads a major integrated Canadian energy company and drove a recent operational and cultural turnaround. He discusses Suncor’s safety and reliability overhaul, oil sands competitiveness versus shale, capital allocation and shareholder returns, pipeline and export strategies, carbon pricing and Pathways CCS, and regulatory predictability for future growth.

This week on the podcast, we welcome back Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. Deborah returned to the show to discuss the April 1 deadline for key deliverables under the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), signed in late November 2025. The conversation covered a wide range of topics, including: The Iran conflict, the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure, looming energy shortages, and global oil prices  Progress on the four key deliverables from the Canada-Alberta MOU, including the agreements in principle reached before April 1 on methane regulations and the “One Project, One Review” framework where Alberta would lead environmental reviews. The discussion also covered delays in reaching an agreement on carbon pricing and the large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. While the latter two items missed the deadline, both Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney signaled confidence that agreements will be reached. The discussion also explored whether shifting priorities due to the global energy shortage and affordability concerns could lead to greater flexibility in these requirements West Coast oil pipeline developments, including a discussion of the potential for alternative financing models for a greenfield 1 million barrel a day pipeline, considering the urgency and strategic importance of expanding export infrastructure for both Canada and Asian buyers at this time Content referenced in this podcast: Canada and Alberta MOU (November 27, 2025) Canada and Alberta reach agreement-in-principle on methane equivalency (March 25, 2026) Canada and Alberta reach an agreement in principle to accelerate the construction of major projects in Alberta (March 6, 2026)  Financial Post: Daniel Smith expects foreign investment to play a role in funding a new pipeline (March 3, 2026) Studio.Energy: The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) TC Energy President and CEO François Poirier: Canada can turn ambition into results, speech made at the Château Laurier (March 31, 2026) Studio.Energy: Beyond the Spike: What Oil Markets are Signaling (April 2, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter unpack key themes from the CERAWeek conference held in Houston from March 23–27, 2026. Highlights from the conference include: Canada is back on the global stage: Senior political leaders promoted energy investment opportunities, with notable alignment between federal and provincial governments.  Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz: Experts from multiple perspectives shared views on the conflict and the challenges of reopening the Strait, with general agreement that doing so would be difficult.  U.S. energy dominance and permitting reform: Senior U.S. officials shared goals to expand energy production and streamline permitting processes to accelerate project development.  Energy security for importers: Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is reinforcing the need for diversified energy supply (across energy types and geographic sources) and increased domestic production among importing countries.  AI and electricity demand: While innovation continues, electricity supply is still considered the key constraint on the pace of AI-driven growth.  Quiet momentum in clean energy: Despite reduced policy support and funding, companies continue advancing technologies, with potential for meaningful breakthroughs in the years ahead.  Content referenced on this podcast: National Petroleum Council study on permitting reform, “Bottleneck to Breakthrough: A Permitting Blueprint to Build” (2025) NVIDIA and Emerald AI Join Leading Energy Companies to Pioneer Flexible AI Factories as Grid Assets (March 23, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, our guest is the Honourable Tim Hodgson, Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources. The conversation was recorded at CERAWeek in Houston on March 24, 2026. Here are some of the questions Jackie asked Minister Hodgson: How is Canadian energy being perceived at CERAWeek, particularly in the context of the war in the Middle East? Do you expect that Canada will meet the Prime Minister’s targets of 50 million tonnes per annum of LNG exports by 2030 and potentially double that by 2040? What steps is Canada taking to attract the hundreds of billions in capital required to advance and build major projects, particularly amid strong competition from the United States? With the first deadline for the Alberta–Ottawa Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) just one week away, what progress has been made, and what are the prospects for advancing a 1 MMB/d oil pipeline to access Asian markets? Is Canada fiscally competitive, especially given its carbon pricing and policy framework compared to the United States? And finally, what opportunities lie ahead for Canada in electricity generation growth? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Over the past decade, the Canadian economy has been driven largely by consumption and government spending, while business investment has remained relatively flat. To accelerate Canada’s economic growth, an objective emphasized by Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada will need stronger business investment, particularly investments with the “one-two punch” of growing the economy through increased capital spending in the early years and greater exports in the longer term. To explore the historical drivers of GDP and what expanded export capacity could mean for Canada’s economy, Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, joins Jackie and Peter on the podcast. The discussion ends with answering the question: What would an additional 1.5 million barrels per day of oil pipeline export capacity, including a West Coast pipeline to Asia and other expansion projects, mean for Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth and jobs outlook over the next decade? Studio.Energy and ATB have collaborated on a series of reports examining Canada’s GDP and the potential economic impact of increased oil export capacity. The series also includes background articles explaining how GDP is calculated and historical trends. These articles are available on both the Studio.Energy and ATB websites (see links below). Content referenced in this podcast:Peter Tertzakian’s op-ed in The Hub.ca: The next act in the oil crisis: Time to get ready for rationing and hoarding? (March 13, 2026)  Seeking Shelter: Iran and the Next Structural Shift in Global Oil Markets (March 9, 2026) Studio.Energy reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines:  The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) Canada’s GDP Dilemma: The Illusion of Growth (March 5, 2026) Other background reports on GDP: Canada’s Economy Under Siege (January 30, 2026) and What is GDP, Really? (February 5, 2026) ATB reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines: The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) See all GDP reports at: Special Reports | ATB Financial Background report on productivity and the importance of the oil and gas sector, “Productive diversification: Maintaining Alberta’s productivity edge”  (August 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Re

War-related attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tanker avoidance of the Strait of Hormuz. A sharp WTI spike and steep backwardation in futures markets. SPR release talks, inventory draws, and rationing risks. LNG price shocks and scramble for shipments. Potential winners: renewables, nuclear, EVs, Russia, and secure Canadian supplies.