ARC ENERGY IDEAS

This week, our guest is the Honourable Tim Hodgson, Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources. The conversation was recorded at CERAWeek in Houston on March 24, 2026. Here are some of the questions Jackie asked Minister Hodgson: How is Canadian energy being perceived at CERAWeek, particularly in the context of the war in the Middle East? Do you expect that Canada will meet the Prime Minister’s targets of 50 million tonnes per annum of LNG exports by 2030 and potentially double that by 2040? What steps is Canada taking to attract the hundreds of billions in capital required to advance and build major projects, particularly amid strong competition from the United States? With the first deadline for the Alberta–Ottawa Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) just one week away, what progress has been made, and what are the prospects for advancing a 1 MMB/d oil pipeline to access Asian markets? Is Canada fiscally competitive, especially given its carbon pricing and policy framework compared to the United States? And finally, what opportunities lie ahead for Canada in electricity generation growth? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Over the past decade, the Canadian economy has been driven largely by consumption and government spending, while business investment has remained relatively flat. To accelerate Canada’s economic growth, an objective emphasized by Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada will need stronger business investment, particularly investments with the “one-two punch” of growing the economy through increased capital spending in the early years and greater exports in the longer term. To explore the historical drivers of GDP and what expanded export capacity could mean for Canada’s economy, Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, joins Jackie and Peter on the podcast. The discussion ends with answering the question: What would an additional 1.5 million barrels per day of oil pipeline export capacity, including a West Coast pipeline to Asia and other expansion projects, mean for Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth and jobs outlook over the next decade? Studio.Energy and ATB have collaborated on a series of reports examining Canada’s GDP and the potential economic impact of increased oil export capacity. The series also includes background articles explaining how GDP is calculated and historical trends. These articles are available on both the Studio.Energy and ATB websites (see links below). Content referenced in this podcast:Peter Tertzakian’s op-ed in The Hub.ca: The next act in the oil crisis: Time to get ready for rationing and hoarding? (March 13, 2026)  Seeking Shelter: Iran and the Next Structural Shift in Global Oil Markets (March 9, 2026) Studio.Energy reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines:  The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) Canada’s GDP Dilemma: The Illusion of Growth (March 5, 2026) Other background reports on GDP: Canada’s Economy Under Siege (January 30, 2026) and What is GDP, Really? (February 5, 2026) ATB reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines: The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) See all GDP reports at: Special Reports | ATB Financial Background report on productivity and the importance of the oil and gas sector, “Productive diversification: Maintaining Alberta’s productivity edge”  (August 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Re

War-related attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tanker avoidance of the Strait of Hormuz. A sharp WTI spike and steep backwardation in futures markets. SPR release talks, inventory draws, and rationing risks. LNG price shocks and scramble for shipments. Potential winners: renewables, nuclear, EVs, Russia, and secure Canadian supplies.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader along with other senior leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In his initial statements following the attack, President Trump signaled that regime change was a potential objective. Iran responded aggressively, targeting a range of military, civilian, and energy infrastructure across nine countries at the time of recording. Energy facilities have been hit, including a refinery in Saudi Arabia and LNG export facilities in Qatar. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows and a key corridor for Qatar’s LNG exports, is effectively blocked. Shipping companies and insurers are unwilling to risk moving through the narrow chokepoint amid ongoing missile and drone attacks in the region. Several tankers have also reportedly been struck. As a result, oil and natural gas prices have risen. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, even higher prices are expected. This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie are joined by Josef Schachter, President and Founder of Schachter Energy Research Services Inc. They discuss the recent events, oil prices, available spare production capacity, and inventories, and what these developments could mean for the Canadian oil and gas industry. Content referenced on this podcast:Learn more about the Schachter Energy Report and the Eye on Energy Report Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Sean Strickland, Executive Director of Canada’s Building Trades Unions, represents over 600,000 skilled tradespeople. He discusses granular trade demand profiling and the challenge of matching workers to many simultaneous major projects. He covers regional feast-or-famine dynamics, barriers to labour mobility and certification, the role of temporary foreign workers, and recruitment and training timing for long-lead trades.

Edward Fishman, Columbia international-affairs scholar and author of Chokepoints, discusses U.S. geoeconomic strategy and sanctions. Robert (RJ) Johnston, Canadian energy policy director, brings a Canada-focused perspective. They explore tariffs as economic weapons, middle-power responses and market diversification, China’s growing self-sufficiency, and what could weaken dollar-era leverage.

Brandon Moffatt, Chief Development Officer at StormFisher Hydrogen, builds green hydrogen and e-fuel projects in North America. He explains why e-methanol is gaining traction for shipping and aviation. He contrasts Canada’s low-carbon grid and tax-credit edge with global competitors. He outlines needed changes to Canadian policy and walks through the Varennes low-carbon methanol project timeline and local job potential.

A lively look at BloombergNEF’s finding that energy-transition investment hit a record $2.3 trillion in 2025. They debate labels for the energy shift and which technologies count. Charts show electrification surging, driven by renewables, grids, and a big AI/data-center capex boom. China’s EV scale and truck electrification get attention. Venezuela’s oil sector reforms and fiscal challenges round out the discussion.

Marcus Rocque, Vice President of Research at the ARC Energy Research Institute, is a policy analyst focused on carbon pricing, methane rules, and energy competitiveness. He discusses Canadian federal carbon policy and industrial pricing. Short talks cover recent methane regulations, the Canada–Alberta MOU and pipeline plans, carbon market reforms, and what carbon competitiveness means for investment and infrastructure.

Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy, shares his insights on energy trends leading to 2026. He discusses the possible shift in focus from net zero ambitions to power security and AI, alongside a bullish outlook for LNG demand driven by rising coal costs. Rob explores the potential growth in global oil demand, the increasing need for grid-enhancing technologies, and the role of electrification in meeting rising electricity loads. Additionally, he evaluates backup power options for home outages, comparing costs and effectiveness.