What 1.5 Million Barrels per Day Could Mean for Canada’s Economy

Over the past decade, the Canadian economy has been driven largely by consumption and government spending, while business investment has remained relatively flat. To accelerate Canada’s economic growth, an objective emphasized by Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada will need stronger business investment, particularly investments with the “one-two punch” of growing the economy through increased capital spending in the early years and greater exports in the longer term. 

To explore the historical drivers of GDP and what expanded export capacity could mean for Canada’s economy, Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, joins Jackie and Peter on the podcast. The discussion ends with answering the question: What would an additional 1.5 million barrels per day of oil pipeline export capacity, including a West Coast pipeline to Asia and other expansion projects, mean for Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth and jobs outlook over the next decade? 

Studio.Energy and ATB have collaborated on a series of reports examining Canada’s GDP and the potential economic impact of increased oil export capacity. The series also includes background articles explaining how GDP is calculated and historical trends. 

These articles are available on both the Studio.Energy and ATB websites (see links below). 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Peter Tertzakian’s op-ed in The Hub.ca: The next act in the oil crisis: Time to get ready for rationing and hoarding? (March 13, 2026)  
• Seeking Shelter: Iran and the Next Structural Shift in Global Oil Markets (March 9, 2026) 
• Studio.Energy reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines:  
  • The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) 
  • Canada’s GDP Dilemma: The Illusion of Growth (March 5, 2026) 
  • Other background reports on GDP: Canada’s Economy Under Siege (January 30, 2026) and What is GDP, Really? (February 5, 2026) 
• ATB reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines: 
  • The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) 
  • See all GDP reports at: Special Reports | ATB Financial 
  • Background report on productivity and the importance of the oil and gas sector, “Productive diversification: Maintaining Alberta’s productivity edge”  (August 2024) 

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