UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Federal Reserve Chair Powell said yesterday that the strength of the US economy and labor market meant the Fed could take its time in cutting rates. This is a rather risky point of view. US inflation has collapsed more than eight percentage points, and the harmonized measure is below 2%. Taking time means tightening policy further. Can the US economy withstand more tightening?

The British Retail Consortium shop price index (measuring prices in selected stores in the UK) sank to a 0.2% y/y rate. Is this the end of profit-led inflation? Profit-led inflation occurs when retailers use a dominant narrative to disguise profit increases when raising prices. However, at some point, price increases become the dominant narrative and consumer rebellion defeats margin expansion.

The first round of the French elections produced results broadly in line with opinion polls (as to the popular vote). An unusually large number of second-round votes could be three-way contests. That makes the final outcome harder to predict. In the past, there has been a “front républicain” with third-placed moderate candidates withdrawing to increase the chances of defeating a more extreme party (in this election, the Rassemblement National). It is not clear how many constituencies will follow such a strategy.

Polls immediately after the US presidential debate declared former President Trump the winner. While incumbents often “lose” debates, US President Biden reportedly lost by a large margin. This invites increased investor scrutiny of Trump’s policies, especially around trade. The economic consequences of tariffs are relatively obvious, but there is uncertainty about how many campaign pledges will translate into policy action.

Financial expert Burkhard Varnholt discusses global election developments, including US Presidential debate, UK and France snap elections impact on markets. Strategies for investors during election-induced volatility, risks of fiscal deficits, and importance of US Treasuries. Analysis of European elections' impact on markets, government debt, EU policies, and implications for Eurozone and US dollar. Stay informed on global election updates and UBS content offerings.

Shane Lieberman previews the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump, discussing potential focus areas. Analysis of latest national and swing-state polling trends. Mention of debate conditions and expectations for the candidates.

Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas at UBS, discusses the evolution and performance of emerging market bonds, comparing them to US Treasuries and investment grade bonds. He also provides insights on short-term opportunities and long-term projections, clarifying misconceptions around investing in emerging market bonds in the second half of the year.

UBS global chief economist Paul Donovan discusses the unreliability of current GDP data revisions and the disconnect between GDP growth and real living standards. He also touches on the political manipulation of GDP figures and the potential market impact of upcoming personal consumer expenditure deflator prices. Additionally, he provides insights into the Riksbank rate decision in Sweden and Japan's surprising retail sales boost.

Our conversation revisits the possibility of a ‘Roaring 20s’-style economy to take shape in the US, as we review the updated assessment of such a scenario from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.