UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Economist Paul Donovan discusses the US June consumer price inflation data and its implications, highlighting US Federal Reserve Chair Powell's views. The podcast also covers UK GDP data, German consumer price inflation figures, and political updates from the US and France.

Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist at UBS, discusses the performance and future expectations of Emerging Market equities for the second half of the year. Topics covered include sector performance, regional impacts, market leaders with strong earnings growth prospects, opportunities in technology stocks, and key market moving events like the Federal Reserve's first hike timing and China's growth recovery.

Economist Paul Donovan from UBS discusses the US Federal Reserve Chair Powell's stance on rate cuts, inflation trends, and the impact of political decisions on global markets. From comparing US and Chinese economies to speculating about UK rate cuts, the podcast delves into various economic and geopolitical factors affecting the financial landscape.

Discussion on Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony and the issue of US inflation compared to Europe. Analysis of the Fed's decision-making process and potential rate cuts in September. Speculation on data dependency and policy effectiveness amid economic slowdown and retail sales performance in the UK and Europe.

In the wake of the June Jobs Report, we take a pulse on the state of the US Labor Market and how the Fed might be interpreting the latest round of data. We also review expectations for monetary policy in the coming months, along with the current asset allocation recommendations from CIO. Featured is Brian Rose, CIO Senior Economist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On the mid-year outlook edition, we spend time reflecting on the drivers of fixed income performance over the first-half of the year, and outline expectations for the second-half, including for rates and monetary policy. We also spend time sharing views when it comes to positioning within fixed income. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ashok Bhatia, Co-Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income with Neuberger Berman. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Tune in for to hear commentary on the first debate between President Biden and former President Trump. How might the debate impact the election in November and your investments?

France’s second-round legislative election produced an unexpected result, with the far right Rassemblement National pushed into third place. This highlights again a market problem—politics is becoming more important to markets, but opinion polls are less reliable as a guide to outcomes. Polarization means financial institutions try to strike a neutral tone—“opinion polls suggest” rather than “we believe that”, but if polls are less reliable market mispricing is more common.

The UK general election result is now clear (for the benefit of US readers, many countries are able to get a definitive result within hours of voting having concluded). The result was entirely as expected by markets, with the Labour Party winning a sizable majority. Former Prime Minister Truss (who presided over the Truss debacle in markets) lost her seat.

US markets are closed as the country celebrates its attempt to escape rule by a monarch. There has been media speculation about US President Biden’s candidacy for re-election. Markets are not likely to react to such speculation at this stage. Politically, markets primarily focus on the probabilities of economic policy change.