Odd Lots

In this discussion, Isabella Weber, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, dives into Germany's strategy to combat rising gas prices during an energy crisis. She explains the urgency behind government interventions, including price controls and subsidies, to protect vulnerable households. The conversation highlights the complexities of implementing these measures amid inflation and supply chain issues. Weber also touches on historical examples of price controls and the need for equitable policies in navigating the current energy landscape.

Josh Younger, JPMorgan's global head of asset and liability management research, explores the shadows of financial history. He dives into the pivotal year of 1953, revealing its surprising parallels to today's economic turbulence. Younger discusses how early decisions shaped the repo market and the enduring impacts these have on current bond stability. The conversation examines the Federal Reserve's strategies in navigating post-war economics and the evolution of a complex shadow banking system that still influences modern finance.

Mark Bergen, a Bloomberg reporter and author of "Like, Comment, Subscribe," dives into the shifting online ad landscape. He discusses how Apple's privacy policies are reshaping user data collection and impacting revenue for major tech players. Bergen explores the fierce competition from platforms like TikTok and the clash between privacy and profit in digital marketing. He also highlights how companies like Google and Facebook are adapting to these changes, raising questions about the future of targeted advertising and digital business.

Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research for the Bank for International Settlements, sheds light on the unique dynamics of the current dollar rally. He explains how this cycle differs from past trends, examining its significant impact on global markets. Shin discusses the implications for trade and investment, exploring how the dollar's strength affects commodity prices and inflation. Policymakers are challenged to navigate these complexities, especially in emerging markets, while the dollar's position as the dominant currency remains a focal point.

The Midwest has been gripped by drought this year and water levels on the Mississippi River have fallen to their lowest marks in decades. That's bad news for farmers growing crops and for anyone trying to actually move those crops down the river to buyers. On this episode, we speak with grains expert and president of Ostebur & Associates, Ben Scholl, about the latest supply chain snarl in the US. We also speak with Mercury Group CEO Anton Posner and President Margo Brock about the important role that the Mississippi plays in the global supply chain. They walk us through the potential impact on a number of commodities — including steel, coal and other vital resources — and why the disruption might reverberate for some time to come.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rachel Premack, editorial director at FreightWaves and author of the MODES newsletter, discusses the evolving legal landscape of the trucking industry. She highlights how truck drivers, the original gig workers, are navigating complex regulations, especially in California. The conversation covers the distinction between owner-operators and leased operators, underscoring implications for employment and costs. Premack also addresses the industry's unique labor dynamics, challenges from rising costs, and the need for regulatory safeguards to support truck drivers.

Guillermo Roditi Dominguez, managing director at New River Investments and a mortgage-backed securities expert, tackles the recent surge in U.S. mortgage rates, now at a two-decade high. He dives into the widening gap between mortgage and Treasury rates, examining its historical context and current market dynamics. Dominguez also illuminates the complexities of mortgage-backed bonds and the challenges homeowners face when refinancing. Additionally, he discusses the pivotal roles of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac amid significant market shifts.

Chris Miller, a professor at the Fletcher School and author of "Chip War," dives into the recent U.S. export restrictions on semiconductors to China. He unpacks the significance of these measures for China’s tech ambitions and national security. The conversation touches on the historical context of semiconductor diplomacy, the impact of the pandemic on supply dynamics, and the potential consequences of military action in Taiwan on chip production. Miller paints a vivid picture of the strategic importance of semiconductors in today’s global landscape.

Rachel Notley, the Leader of Alberta's official opposition and former Premier, discusses the Alberta NDP's unique strategies for succeeding in a deeply conservative province. She emphasizes the party's pragmatic approach to the oil and gas industry, balancing economic growth with climate commitments. Key topics include the importance of public support for innovative climate policies, the complexities of Alberta's resource-dependent economy, and the potential of carbon pricing to foster both emission reductions and job creation. Notley also navigates the political tensions surrounding pipeline politics.

Nouriel Roubini, a renowned economist and author of "MegaThreats," discusses the grim economic outlook. He predicts a downturn worse than the 1970s due to ongoing supply shocks and high private sector debt. Central banks, he warns, will struggle to combat rising inflation as financial markets face mounting pressure. The conversation also touches on the need for digital transformation during these challenging times and highlights the urgent risks of a stagflationary debt crisis for both the U.S. and global economies.