FDD Morning Brief

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a Tel Aviv University researcher on Turkish politics, unpacks Ankara’s regional strategy. He discusses Turkey’s stance toward Iran, concerns about Kurds and refugees, and the pragmatic U.S.-Turkey relationship. Conversation covers ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas-related security issues, education shifts toward Islamist narratives, and whether Turkey could follow Iran’s path.

Hagar Chemali, former U.S. Treasury and U.S. Mission official and Atlantic Council fellow, provides razor‑sharp regional analysis. She walks through heavy strikes in Dahyeh and Hezbollah’s rearmament in the Bekaa. They discuss Israel’s ground push south of the Litani and efforts to hunt long‑range and precision missile threats. She also covers mass displacement, sectarian strains, and emerging Lebanon‑Israel normalization efforts.

Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Amir Eshel, retired Israeli Air Force commander and former defense ministry director general, shares frontline strategic perspective. He outlines air and naval strikes and Iran’s shift to economic warfare. He compares chokepoints like Hormuz vs. Bab al-Mandab. He discusses U.S.-Israel operational integration and evolving multilayered missile defenses.

Ilan Berman, Senior VP at the American Foreign Policy Council and Iran/Russia/China analyst, joins to assess an Iran-centered multi-front war. He discusses military gains and U.S. political ambiguity. He weighs whether degrading Iran can avoid regime collapse. He explains Russia and China’s growing support and urges stronger regional air and maritime defenses.

A rapid rundown of the Iran conflict and regional tensions. A deep dive into Iranian military degradation and who really runs the regime. Debate over congressional appetite for troop funding and shifting objectives. Discussion of homeland threat risks, oil and Strait of Hormuz impacts, and the challenge of rallying European support.

Brian Hook, former U.S. Special Representative for Iran and architect of the maximum pressure campaign, outlines the roots of U.S.–Iran hostility and why the 2015 nuclear deal fell short. He discusses design and effects of maximum pressure, shifts during the Biden years, renewed pressure in a potential second Trump term, maritime threats in the Strait of Hormuz, and China’s growing ties with Iran.

Peter Doran, an expert on Russia, Ukraine, and sanctions policy and author on sanctions evasion, explains the Red Queen metaphor for sanctions. He outlines how Russia and Iran share evasion techniques, why sectoral sanctions can lose effectiveness, and why targeting shadow fleets and using stronger secondary measures matter.

Lewis Libby, former Chief of Staff to Vice President Dick Cheney and national-security veteran. He breaks down tactical surprises and U.S.-Israel coordination. He describes secret diplomacy that brought Gulf states in. He revisits lessons from the 1990 Gulf War and contrasts post-2001 decision-making. He analyzes Iran’s proxy campaign and recent provocations.

Ray Takeyh, Iran expert and former State Department official, explains why Tehran faces its worst crisis in decades. He contrasts public narratives of strength with deep domestic weakness. He discusses the mystery around Mujtaba Khamenei, threats to Gulf shipping, and how fractures among elites and ethnic tensions could shape Iran’s future.

Jonathan Hessen, an Israel-based regional analyst on Iran, Lebanon, and proxy activity, and Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral with expertise in naval operations and counter-UAS, break down military aims and tactics. They discuss threats to the Strait of Hormuz, mine and drone warfare, Israel’s objectives in Iran, regional militia dynamics, and how partners could supply counter-drone defenses.