FDD Morning Brief The splintering axis of evil | feat. Ilan Berman
Mar 27, 2026
Ilan Berman, Senior VP at the American Foreign Policy Council and Iran/Russia/China analyst, joins to assess an Iran-centered multi-front war. He discusses military gains and U.S. political ambiguity. He weighs whether degrading Iran can avoid regime collapse. He explains Russia and China’s growing support and urges stronger regional air and maritime defenses.
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Military Operations Are Effective But Strategically Ambiguous
- The military campaign is proceeding methodically with U.S.-Israeli air superiority and degradation of Iran's defense industrial base.
- Ilan Berman notes synchronized strikes, leadership targeting, and continued attrition despite strategic ambiguity about end goals.
Information Warfare Amplifies Strategic Confusion
- The conflict is also an information war shaped by Iranian allies and digital influence operations.
- Berman highlights Russian bots, Chinese AI, and Iranian messaging exploiting ambiguous U.S. political signals to muddy perceptions.
Lack Of A Clear U.S. Theory Of Victory Creates Operational Tension
- There is no clearly articulated U.S. theory of victory driving allied operations.
- Berman says absence of a narrow political objective complicates tasks like securing Iran's nuclear material that require ground custody and overwatch.