FDD Morning Brief

Ilan Berman, Senior VP at the American Foreign Policy Council and Iran/Russia/China analyst, joins to assess an Iran-centered multi-front war. He discusses military gains and U.S. political ambiguity. He weighs whether degrading Iran can avoid regime collapse. He explains Russia and China’s growing support and urges stronger regional air and maritime defenses.

A rapid rundown of the Iran conflict and regional tensions. A deep dive into Iranian military degradation and who really runs the regime. Debate over congressional appetite for troop funding and shifting objectives. Discussion of homeland threat risks, oil and Strait of Hormuz impacts, and the challenge of rallying European support.

Brian Hook, former U.S. Special Representative for Iran and architect of the maximum pressure campaign, outlines the roots of U.S.–Iran hostility and why the 2015 nuclear deal fell short. He discusses design and effects of maximum pressure, shifts during the Biden years, renewed pressure in a potential second Trump term, maritime threats in the Strait of Hormuz, and China’s growing ties with Iran.

Peter Doran, an expert on Russia, Ukraine, and sanctions policy and author on sanctions evasion, explains the Red Queen metaphor for sanctions. He outlines how Russia and Iran share evasion techniques, why sectoral sanctions can lose effectiveness, and why targeting shadow fleets and using stronger secondary measures matter.

Lewis Libby, former Chief of Staff to Vice President Dick Cheney and national-security veteran. He breaks down tactical surprises and U.S.-Israel coordination. He describes secret diplomacy that brought Gulf states in. He revisits lessons from the 1990 Gulf War and contrasts post-2001 decision-making. He analyzes Iran’s proxy campaign and recent provocations.

Ray Takeyh, Iran expert and former State Department official, explains why Tehran faces its worst crisis in decades. He contrasts public narratives of strength with deep domestic weakness. He discusses the mystery around Mujtaba Khamenei, threats to Gulf shipping, and how fractures among elites and ethnic tensions could shape Iran’s future.

Jonathan Hessen, an Israel-based regional analyst on Iran, Lebanon, and proxy activity, and Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral with expertise in naval operations and counter-UAS, break down military aims and tactics. They discuss threats to the Strait of Hormuz, mine and drone warfare, Israel’s objectives in Iran, regional militia dynamics, and how partners could supply counter-drone defenses.

Einat Wilf, chair of Israel's Oz Party and former Knesset member, brings sharp analysis on Israeli public mood and the drive to decisively confront the Islamic Republic. Short takes cover who will set the war’s end, why negotiations may fail, Iran’s regional strikes and ideological aims, and how Gulf-Israel alignments could reshape Middle East politics.

Eyal Hulata, former Israeli national security advisor with deep military and regional strategy experience, and Ebtesam AlKetbi, Emirati political scientist focused on Gulf security and resilience. They discuss Gulf civilian defenses and UAE alarm responses. They compare Israel’s air-defense systems and long-range attack experience. They explore Gulf political unity, UAE–US military coordination, and shifting regional partnerships.

Jonathan Conricus, former IDF spokesperson now FDD senior fellow, offers frontline Israeli military assessments. Bradley Bowman, FDD senior director and national security analyst, examines U.S.-Israel operational coordination. They discuss Iran’s regional strike strategy, reported axis cooperation, Hezbollah’s actions and responses, and deep U.S.-Israel military integration.