State of Play

Nick Szechenyi, vice president of Geopolitics and senior fellow on Japan at CSIS, breaks down Sanae Takaichi’s landslide win. He covers Japan’s rapid defense spending push. He explores fiscal tradeoffs and public support. He assesses Japan‑China tensions and deepening U.S.‑Japan ties. He examines Takaichi’s strategic continuity with Abe and what to watch next.

At Davos, the Canadian prime minister argued that the rules based system is fading and middle powers must work together to build a new world order. Chris Hernandez-Roy and Kristi Govella join Will to discuss whether or not key U.S. allies like Canada and Japan could do this, what it might look like, and what the risks are. Mark Carney, "Davos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada," January 20, 2026. Kristi Govella, "Japan’s Response to Trump 2.0: Sustaining U.S. Ties, Strengthening International Partnerships," CSIS, October 6, 2025. Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Juliana Rubio, Jessie Hu, and Sam Smith, "President Trump’s Latin America Policy: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Risks," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

In a special live episode to mark the launch of a new book on China's weaponization of trade, Will sits down with its main author Dr. Victor Cha and panelists Bethany Allen and Dr. Melanie Hart. They discuss how China's economic strategy is evolving, how it compares with President Trump's own form of economic coercion, and what states and firms can do to push back. Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, and Andy Lim, "China's Weaponization of Trade: Resistance Through Collective Resilience" (Columbia University Press), January 2026. Victor Cha, "How to Stop Chinese Coercion," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2023. Watch video of the discussion.

After a momentous year of geopolitical shifts, 12 CSIS experts join Will to share what they consider the most significant developments in different parts of the world in 2025. They also share their predictions for what they expect to happen across the world in the year ahead. "Indo-Pacific Forecast 2026," CSIS, January 14, 2026. 

Nicolas Maduro was a key ally of the so-called CRINK countries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) in Latin America. But President Trump’s actions in Venezuela seemingly support an attempt to alter the balance of power in the Western Hemisphere.   The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a special episode of State of Play on the lessons these states are learning from Maduro’s capture and what it means for their interests going forward. The discussion will feature Dr. Ryan Berg, Henrietta Levin, Dr. Vali Nasr, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman.

2025 was a transformative year for geopolitics. Victor Cha and the Brookings Institution's Dr. Tom Wright join Will to discuss how the United States' global strategy changed, how its allies and adversaries are responding, and what to watch for in the year ahead. Thomas Wright, "A Strategy That Ignores the Real Threats," The Atlantic, December 8, 2025. Victor Cha (ed.), "Navigating Disruption: Ally and Partner Responses to U.S. Foreign Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

After a flurry of diplomacy on Ukraine and the release of the new U.S. National Security Strategy, Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya join Will to discuss what we should expect from ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine and how the growing crisis in transatlantic relations might shape the contours of a deal. Max Bergmann, "The NSS That Could Destroy the NATO Alliance," CSIS, December 5, 2025. Mark F Cancian and Maria Snegovaya, "The Unfinished Plan for Peace in Ukraine: Provision by Provision," CSIS, November 24, 2025.

The visits of the Saudi crown price and the Syrian president to the White House resulted in large investment deals and new defense announcements. Mona Yacoubian and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney join Will to discuss how successful the visits really were, what failed to materialize, and what surprises emerged.  Michael Ratney, “A Crown Prince with a New Set of Priorities,” New York Times, November 17, 2025.  Mona Yacoubian and Michael Ratney, “MBS in Washington: What’s Next for U.S.-Saudi Relations?” CSIS, November 6, 2025. 

President Trump has staked much of his economic and foreign policy agendas on his expansive use of tariffs. Navin Girishankar and Phil Luck join Will to discuss what they are intended to achieve, their economic effects, and the geopolitical shifts they are precipitating. Philip Luck, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Duc Minh Nguyet (Moon) Nguyen, "When a Trade War Becomes a Food Fight," CSIS, October 21, 2025. Navin Girishankar, "Fighting a Trade War Could Mean Losing the Tech War," CSIS, March 28, 2025. 

After a whirlwind trip through Asia, President Trump touted big economic deals, a peace treaty, and a successful meeting with Xi Jinping. Victor Cha and Brian Hart join Will to discuss if the trip met expectations, what surprises emerged, and what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations.