The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

If you enjoyed this video, please share it.A rant for you this Sunday morning. Enjoy!If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.By the way, in case of interest, I have the following comedy shows coming up int he next fortnight.* Bath, April 3. Tickets here. SOLD OUT* Bordon, Hampshire. April 12. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, May 14. SOLD OUT. (Waiting list only)* London, Backyard, May 20. The Mid Year Review Tickets here* London, Crazy Coqs, Sept 24. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Nov 5. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Dec 3. Tickets here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

How I boosted my testosterone with no TRT—exercise, sleep, fasting and diet.Based on this article: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

You can read the story below or the video version here: From this week’s Moneyweek Magazine …Two rumours have been swirling around the gold markets for many years. Some have called them conspiracy theories. Others note that conspiracy theories often prove true. What’s the difference between conspiracy and truth? About 30 years.The first is that China has far more gold than it says it does. We actually now know this to be true. The other is that America has far less than the 8,133 tonnes of gold it says it possesses.This rumour has been doing the rounds since 1971, when Peter Beter, a lawyer and financial adviser to former president John F. Kennedy, said he had been informed that gold in Fort Knox had been removed. He went on to write a best-selling book about it: The Conspiracy Against the Dollar.The problem is a total lack of transparency on the part of the US authorities, something that according to current US president Donald Trump, and the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musk, will not be the case for much longer.Roosevelt triggers a boomBut to understand this situation we need to go back in time, all the way to 1933, when US president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously devalued the US dollar and revalued gold upwards by 70%, from $20 an ounce (oz) to $35/oz, in order to bolster growth. US gold reserves would increase to unprecedented levels in the next 15 years.Some of the gold came from US citizens. It was now illegal for them to own gold and they had to hand any they owned over to the authorities. Some came from the fact that the government then bought all US mined supply (the upwards revaluation of gold triggered a mining boom) and any gold imported to the US assay office. The US even began buying gold on foreign markets to protect the new higher price.Thus US official holdings in 1939 on the eve of World War II totalled 15,679 tonnes. They would only increase. With Nazi invasions, European nations sent all the gold they could across the Atlantic, either for safekeeping or to buy essential supplies; 1949 saw the high watermark of US gold holdings – 22,000 tonnes, as much as half of all the gold ever mined.In July 1944, with it clear that the Allies were going to win the war, representatives from the 44 Allied nations met at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference to design a new system of money for the new world order.International accounts would be settled in dollars, and those dollars were convertible to gold at $35/oz. Countries had to maintain exchange rates within 1% of the US dollar. In effect, the US was on a gold standard, and the rest of the world was on a dollar standard.The system relied on the integrity of the US dollar to work, and that integrity was in question, even before the end of the war. The June 1945 Federal Reserve Act reduced required gold reserves for notes outstanding from 40% to 25%, and against deposits from 35% to 25%. Between 1944 and 1954, because of increased supply, the dollar lost a third of its purchasing power, though the $35 Bretton Woods price remained.“Six major European countries,along with the UK, co-ordinated sales to suppress the gold price”US government spending was soaring, and it began running balance of payments deficits – made worse by the costs of foreign aid, America’s new welfare systems and maintaining a military presence in Europe and Asia. Gold began leaving the US. By 1965 reserves had fallen by 9,500 tonnes, down 40% from the 1949 peak.Successive US administrations tried to stop the outflow, without success. Dwight D. Eisenhower banned Americans from buying gold overseas, Kennedy imposed the “equalisation tax” on foreign investments, and Lyndon B. Johnson discouraged Americans from travelling altogether. “We may need to forgo the pleasures of Europe for a while,” he said.Fears that the dollar would devalue following the election (won by Kennedy) sent the gold price in London to $40/oz. The Bank of England, in collusion with the Federal Reserve, began increasing gold sales to keep the price down.Thus did the London gold pool begin, with the addition of six major European nations the following year (Belgium, France, the Netherlands, West Germany, Italy and Switzerland), which co-ordinated sales to suppress, or “stabilise”, to use their word, the gold price and defuse unwanted, upward market pressure.But the pool struggled against growing demand. In 1965, an ounce of gold was still $35, but the purchasing power of the dollar had decreased by 57% from 1945, while gold reserves had also fallen sharply. The culprit was the costs of the US government, in particular the Vietnam War and president Johnson’s enormous welfare spending.If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Bretton Woods under pressureWith inflation rising at home and international confidence in the dollar waning, these programmes were not just costly – they undermined Bretton Woods. Non-American nations felt aggrieved that they had to produce $100 worth of goods and services to get a $100 bill, when the US could just print one. French finance minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing called it “America’s exorbitant privilege”.President de Gaulle, meanwhile, had had enough. He ignored the pool to turn all French dollars and sterling balances into gold. The French even sent battleships to New York to collect their gold. De Gaulle became the target of several assassination attempts – coincidence, I’m sure. There were rather more US dollars in the world than there was gold to back them, he felt, and he was right.By 1967, US foreign liabilities were $36bn, but it only had $12bn in gold reserves – a third of what was needed to back the dollar. West Germany, Spain and Switzerland began demanding gold for their dollars. Even the British, with sterling going through one of its quadrennial collapses, asked the Americans to prepare $3bn worth of Fort Knox gold for withdrawal. Private gold demand was overwhelming.“The floor of the Bank of England’s weighing room collapsed under the weight of all the bullion”In November 1967, the British government devalued the pound by 14%, from $2.80 to $2.40, in order to “achieve a substantial surplus on the balance of payments consistent with economic growth and full employment”.In that month, the London market saw greater bullion demand than it would typically see in nine: as much as 100 tonnes per day. To stem demand they banned forward buying, leverage and the purchase of gold with credit. The pool still lost 1,400 tonnes that year, more than a whole year’s mined supply.Selling pressure on the US dollar only increased when the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese People’s Army of Vietnam launched the first of a series of surprise attacks on US armed forces in South Vietnam in January 1968.Desperate to prop up the system, US military aircraft flew tonne after tonne of gold to RAF Lakenheath from where it was trucked in military convoys to the back entrance of the Bank of England: at one point the floor of the Bank of England’s weighing room collapsed under the weight of all the gold.You really should subscribe to this amazing publication.Shoring up the systemIn the four days between 11 March and 14 March 1968, some 780 tonnes were sold to market. The effort to protect the price was deemed hopeless. On 15 March, UK chancellor Roy Jenkins declared a bank holiday, and the gold market was closed for a fortnight, “at the request of the United States”.Zurich also closed. Paris stayed open with gold trading at a 25% premium. All in all, the final 15 months saw over 3,000 tonnes sold to market to protect that $35 price. The pool had lost more than an eighth of its reserves.Two days later, in the rushed-through Washington Agreement, governors of the central banks in the gold pool declared there would be one fixed gold marketfor official government transactions at $35/oz and another, free-market, price for private transactions. Not for the last time, central bankers were living in a world of their own.Gold is one thing. Gold standards are another. They tend not to last, particularly bogus ones such as this one, under which citizens themselves did not handle gold. Keynes called them barbarous – ironic, perhaps, given that he was one of the architects of this one.In August 1971, president Nixon took the US off the gold standard, a “temporary” measure that remains more than 50 years later. For the first time in history, gold – Switzerland aside – played no part in the global monetary system.Of course it was the fault of the speculators. It always is. “I have directed the secretary of the Treasury to take the action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators,” Nixon said, deflecting responsibility, and “to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold”.High time for a US gold auditThe US keeps its gold in four places: at Fort Knox, Kentucky (roughly 56% of its 8,133 tonnes); at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (8%); and the remaining 36% at the mints in Denver and West Point. There has not been a proper public audit of this gold since 1953. There have been internal audits, especially between 1974 and 1986, but these were not transparent.There are many people, among them gold experts, who do not believe the gold is there. The US spent it trying to suppress the gold price in the 1960s, theysay. But in this new age of American transparency, both Trump and Musk have repeatedly pledged that this gold will be audited.There is talk of it being done on a livestream. Trump has even suggested the gold has been stolen. “We’re actually going to Fort Knox to see if the gold is there,” he said, “because maybe somebody stole the gold. Tonnes of gold.”They’ve been making such light of it, one has to assume they know the gold is there. Musk was laughing about the conspiracies on podcasts, and he even posted a picture of a Fort Knox starter kit: a brick and some gold spray. I can’t see how they would be joking if there were any serious doubts.Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, has said quite categorically that the gold is there. The last audit was in September 2024, he said in a recent Bloomberg interview, before looking down the camera and assuring the US people that “all the gold is present and accounted for”. But this would only have been an internal audit, and it would not have been a full audit.According to the US Mint, “the only gold removed has been very small quantities used to test the purity of gold during regularly scheduled audits”. No other gold has been transferred to or from the depository “for many years”. How long is many years, though? As far back as the 1960s?It’s quite astonishing just how secretive the whole thing is. They opened the vaults for a congressional delegation and certain members of the press to view the gold in 1974. There were rumours swirling about then too. “We’ve never done this before and we’ll probably never do it again,” said the then director of the US Mint Mary Brooks.“The gold commonly confiscated under Roosevelt contained some copper, and is not pure enough for sale”Then in 2017, during Trump’s first administration, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell were invited to view the gold. “The gold was there,” Mnuchin said. He is “sure” nobody’s moved it. There are “serious security protocols in place”. But there are more than 4,000 tonnes in Fort Knox. A tonne would be about the size of a medium to large suitcase. Did he see all 4,000 of them?The other big issue is the purity of the gold. What is there might not all be of good delivery quality, meaning it would not be readily accepted in international bullion markets. If much of the gold is the bullion Roosevelt confiscated in the 1930s, it will be in the form of “coinmelt”: melted down coins.The commonly confiscated coins, such as the $20 double eagle, were only 90% pure and mixed with copper to make them harder. When melted down, they were not always properly refined to modern standards, while the bars they were melted into weighed 320-330 ounces, not the 400 oz bars of good delivery standard today. In practice, this means Fort Knox gold would not be accepted without additional processing.But, until a proper audit takes place, this is all speculation, albeit reasoned speculation. We don’t know the full facts. The reasons given for not conducting a full audit are flimsy: we don’t need to, it would be too much of an undertaking. Please!If the US gold turns out not to be there, then the gold price goes up – potentially a lot. If it is there, it’s business as usual.For now, I’d say the markets are behaving as though it is business as usual. They are climbing, and every dip is being bought, largely, it seems, by central banks (especially in Asia), who are diversifying their holdings and de-dollarising. But this audit cannot come quickly enough.Large volumes of physical gold - over 1,000 tonnes by some counts - have recently been transferred from London to New York. One theory is that was the gold was transferred in anticipation of tariffs. Another is that it was the US buying ahead of its audit. We will soon find out.Finally, I would just like to debunk one theory doing the rounds. US gold is currently marked to market at $42/oz. After the audit, those 8,133 tonnes – assuming they are there and of good delivery quality – could be marked to market at current prices, meaning a significant uplift in the value of holdings.The theory doing the rounds is that Treasury ecretary Bessent will use some of the upwards revaluation to monetise the balance sheet – not unlike how Roosevelt did in 1933 – to create funds for, among other things, the strategic bitcoin reserve. But Bessent has quite clearly stated that is not his intention.This article first appeared in Moneyweek Magazine. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comEverything looks decidedly shaky all of a sudden. Trump is swinging the wrecking ball. Markets are tanking. What to do?A bear market was long overdue, but now that we are teetering on the edge of one, it doesn’t feel very nice.Markets don’t like uncertainty, and there is a lot of it about at the moment. President Trump likes to create it. It’s one of his negotiating tactics. And he is creating one heck of a lot of it.Unlike his previous presidency, when he made a lot of noise but wasn’t able to get much actually done, this time around he seems to be shaking up a world order that has been in place for decades, both internationally and at home.Is he serious about America no longer being the world’s policeman? It seems he is. It began with a global freeze on most U.S. foreign aid as part of his “America First” policy, and USAID’s closure is reverberating internationally. Many have lost their jobs; some 10000 grants and contracts have been canceled, disrupting global aid programmes and more. So much of it was illegitimate, bent, or wasteful. Elon Musk called it “beyond repair” and an “evil criminal organization,” boasting of feeding it “into the wood chipper.” Maybe so. Doesn’t mean ending it will be easy. Anything but.There have been cuts to the federal workforce; numerous bodies, such as the Social Security Administration and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, have been targeted.But at present, the administration is moving quickly and breaking things. Many support what is happening. Many don’t. Nobody knows quite how far this will go, but it seems a lot further than anyone anticipated.Europe is going to have to pay its way, and he really means it. What are the implications of that?What is going to happen between Russia and Ukraine? What deal does he have in mind? Will Presidents Putin and Zelensky go along with it?What’s going on with tariffs? Are they really about the revenue (I don’t think so) or about something else? What are the implications there?What is the reaction from Trump’s political opponents going to be? They’ve started attacking Tesla factories. They hate him so much they could not even bring themselves to applaud when a terminally ill child with brain cancer was given an honorary Secret Service award. Whether it’s in the courts or on the streets, they will oppose everything he does. They would rather have corruption, waste, and no transparency than have Donald Trump.The amounts that have been saved so far are disputed. DOGE claimed $55 billion in the first month. Others have it closer to $15 billion. Either is peanuts in the context of the $2 trillion figure Elon Musk touted during the campaign and reiterated post-inauguration. This would represent roughly 30% of the federal budget ($6.75 trillion 2024). We are a long way from that. There are a thousand billions in a trillion.Musk is aiming for $1 trillion to be cut from the U.S. deficit in the first year. We are a long way from that too. Even with all the cuts, one Reuters analysis shows that spending has actually increased under Trump, largely due to the increase in interest payments on that extraordinary $36 trillion U.S. national debt. President Joe Biden increased that debt by $8 trillion—31%. Though, to be fair to him, Trump increased it by almost $8 trillion (40%) in his first term.I remember when it was below $10 trillion, and that seemed like a lot.If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Was he right?Remember this freaky interview I posted back in October?The preacher man who described Trump’s assassination with uncanny accuracy, then talked about a mighty crash. People are always predicting crashes and getting it wrong, but this guy was amazing.Aaaaagh. Scary!As I say, if there is one thing markets don’t like, it is uncertainty. And we have that in abundance. Nobody quite knows how this is going to pan out. I, for one, am incredibly optimistic. The sooner the system is drained of corruption, waste, rent-seeking, non-productive endeavour, crony capitalism, non-accountability, and all the rest of it, the better, in my view.But I recognise there is a mountain, and more, of upheaval to get through first.Thank goodness we have such a large allocation to gold. It is behaving like a trooper. Who knows? A mining boom might even come out of this.But the stock market does not like it one bit.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comBeware: imposters! Anyone appearing to be me, but soliciting you to chat on Telegram or WhatsApp or anywhere is NOT ME. It is someone trying to scam you out of your money.Video version of this article here: We are talking testosterone today.I posted this video on YouTube the other day of me breaking the Lewisham dead hang record. Dead hangs are not the greatest spectator sport, so it might be one to watch sped up. In any case, somebody in the comments asked if I had been taking some kind of testosterone supplement. The answer is, “sort of.”Testosterone is something I have been meaning to write about for a while, and it is something I have been experimenting with, so here goes.I haven’t had TRT - testosterone replacement therapy - or anything like that, but I have been looking to improve my testosterone levels, and I think I have had some success.Getting your levels up, whether man or woman, will make you feel A LOT better.Physically, higher testosterone levels mean more energy, more muscle, more fat burn, better sleep, better cardiovascular health and blood flow, better bone density and less inflammation. These are all super important once you pass 50.You’re stronger, basically.Mentally, with more testosterone, your concentration improves, you become more targeted - that’s another way of saying your focus improves (I don’t like the word focus) - your spirits are higher, your confidence improves, you get bolder, more assertive and more driven. I have noticed improvements to all of the above.One thing, in particular, I have also noticed is a lower tolerance of fools, a higher appetite for risk and much more of a DNGAF attitude, which is something I’ve always wished I had more of. I had a blood test in September 2023 and it showed my testosterone level as 577 ng/dL. The normal range is 200-750ng/dL. An athlete in his early 20s might have levels above that. So my levels were above average - upper-middle - without being amazing. Testosterone peaks at 18 (probably why young men get into such trouble), then declines ever after. After 30 it declines at 1% per annum. But once you pass 45 - take note - there is an acceleration in decline. That is what we need to address.I haven’t done another test, but I know my levels have improved. I can feel it. And I think I am well above 600ng/dL.Here is how to improve your testosterone1. ExerciseLift weightsRegular strength training boosts testosterone production, especially in the short term. Resistance training stimulates muscle growth, which signals the body to release more testosterone. Intensity matters - heavier weights with lower reps has a bigger impact. Compound movements such as squats, press-ups, bench presses and deadlifts are particularly effective.SprintSprints are more effective than light jogging. In fact, any kind of HIIT is good. I usually jog for 2 or 3 miles then do 4 30-second sprints up a hill at the end. It takes me about half an hour in total. Short, maximum-effort sprints (even just 6-10 seconds at 90-100% effort) with full recovery periods (1-2 minutes) work best. Play some competitive sportAny kind of competitive sport is good. Tennis, table tennis even. I still play footy - 6-a-side. I’ve found in the last year I am going in for challenges that I would not have attempted ten years ago.But, of the above three, resistance training is the most important.2. Other habitsSleepGood sleep is as important as exercise, perhaps even more so. The majority of your testosterone is produced when you are asleep. 7-9 hours is optimal. 5-6 hours and your levels drop by 10-15% in just a few days. One 2011 study found young men restricted to 5 hours of sleep had testosterone levels closer to someone 10-15 years older.My guide to sleeping better is here, but … go to bed an hour earlier.Use mouthtape when you sleep - breathing through your nose is better for testosterone. Lord knows why but that’s what the bros say.What next?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comAt the moment it is relentless. I suppose I should take it as a compliment, but every day, sometimes several times per day some new account masquerading as me pops up. I block, report and delete as soon as I get wind of it, but I can’t be in front of my computer 24/7. Please be aware: I don’t use Telegram. I never invite people to chat on WhatsApp. So if somebody who appears to be me solicits you to join them on Telegram, WhatsApp or anywhere else, it is not me. It is someone who is trying to scam you.Let me start today’s note with a very warm welcome to the many new readers who have signed up the Flying Frisby. Many have signed up because of the recent promotion for Lifetime Membership. That ends today, so if it’s caught your eye, time is running out. For a one-off payment of just £450/$570 you will get full access to the Flying Frisby for life.Click the button below and you will see the option - I stress this is a one-off paymentToday, with stock markets looking very wobbly indeed, I thought it would be a good time to check in on the Dolce Far Niente portfolio.Dolce Far Niente, as I’m sure you know, means “the sweetness of doing nothing”, and the idea was to create a strong, long-term portfolio * which will grow and thrive* with which you will not have to constantly tinker* about which you will not to have to constantly worry. You can just leave it alone and let it be.It emphasises strategic asset allocation - being in the right market - above individual stock picking.So, with so many new readers, and with it being six months since we last looked, let’s check in on it today.1 Gold (15% allocation)Gold is the ultimate Dolce Far Niente asset. It does nothing but sit there and look sweet. The shine may be coming off everything else, but it will never come off gold. It’s up 55% since inception in October 2023 and going strong.My firm belief is that everyone should own some gold. Especially now.My guide to investing in gold is here. If you are looking to buy gold, try the Pure Gold Company.2. Bitcoin (5% allocation)HODL is another way of saying Dolce Far Niente, and, even with the current shake out, bitcoin has been another winner. It has more than tripled since inception (a 233% gain).Some will argue bitcoin has no place in a “low risk” portfolio such as this. I’d argue that the greater risk is not owning bitcoin.For those in the UK who can’t buy it directly or buy the ETFs, our vehicle to play bitcoin via a UK-broker, and circumvent/satisfy ill-conceived-FCA regulation, was to own Nasdaq-listed Strategy Inc (Nasdaq:MSTR).This is one volatile stock, and the chart now looks nasty, but its President Michael Saylor is a genius. He embraces volatility, seeing it as a feature not a flaw. And the company has been another winner, up 9x since the inception of the portfolio, even after the recent correction.By the way, Strategy is proving a leading indicator for bitcoin - it was already falling when bitcoin was re-testing its old high. That makes it a super-useful forecaster. Take note.3. Special Situations (10%)This is the fun/painful part of the portfolio. Lightbridge (NASDAQ:LTBR) was a big winner here, as was and the tax-loss trade (time to exit this one if you haven’t already). Junior miners, Condor and tax-loss trade aside, continue to suck.By the way, check out this nuts Lightbridge chart. The bots must have got hold of it. Surely one be one to buy on the dips and exit on the spikes.4. Uranium (5% allocation, reduced to 2.5%)I reduced the uranium allocation to 2.5% in February 2024, because it all felt too frothy. That has proved a good decision, as the price has since come down. We are in proper bear market now.I don’t like uranium miners. Most of them will not see any production for years, decades even and are, therefore, drains on capital. We own the metal itself.

Another video for this Sunday morning, based on the very popular New Year’s How To Win piece. I hope you draw some inspiration from it. (I meant to put it out in Jan, but didn’t).Please like, watch, share and all those other things.All the bestDominicPS Could I draw your attention to a couple of things…Lifetime Membership Many people do not know about this, so, for one week only, I am running promotion. For a one-off payment of just £450/$570 you will get full access to the Flying Frisby for life. Click the button below and you will see the option - I stress this is a one-off paymentPlease consider upgrading your subscription - and if one of last year’s flyers - Lightbridge, Novavax or Microstrategy worked for you, then consider this a way of saying thank you!PPS As always, if buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company with whom I have an affiliation deal. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.PPPS This week’s commentary about my recent experiences in the US and, in particular, Tesla, went down a storm. ICYMI here it is: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

If you missed last week’s special report, I urge you to take a look. Some of these are already starting to move, and fast .And so to today’s piece. Tesla .I am just back from a two-week trip to the States, and what a time I had.I felt so privileged to be there at what feels like the dawn of a new golden age for this most amazing of countries.The first week I spent in Palm Springs, California, visiting my mum, and the second in Naples, Florida. Quite the contrast. One was Meltdown Central, the other was in a state of jubilation. Everyone everywhere was talking about the USAID revelations.I did not know Naples. What a stunning place. Hot, sunny, green, humid, beautiful (the architecture is lovely, even the newbuilds—that’s traditional measures for you), polite, safe, cultured, healthy, delicious food. Life seems to slow down as soon you arrive. What’s happening elsewhere no longer seems to matter. Were I to go there and settle, I think I would lose all ambition.The problem with settling there, though, is price. It has the most expensive real estate in the US. One house was for sale for $295 million. Even Satoshi Nakamoto would wince at paying that.“I told my kids, when they were growing up,” said Mike, who I was having dinner with, “this is not the real world. Naples is not reality. It’s something else. They needed to know that.”I turned to his son—Matty Ice—the man who had brought me to Naples to talk tax, bitcoin, and other such things on the Runway Pod, an entrepreneur and family man in his early 30s. “Well, I’m not leaving. Why would I?”It turns out lots of people come to Naples on a temporary basis, then decide to stay.It’s not just Naples real estate that is expensive, by the way. The whole of the US has got super dear. I paid $18 for a pint of beer in Miami airport. I had dinner at a friend’s—he paid $60 for three steaks for the barbeque. I thought steak was cheap in the US. In a Palm Springs supermarket, I paid $4.99 for three organic onions. They saw me coming.In general, I would say food is twice the price it is here in the UK. And that’s with a strong dollar. The country has got very expensive. Inflation is a big, big issue.My eldest son works in recruitment—in the chemicals industry—and most of the time he is recruiting in the US. He says US workers get paid three times the money for doing the same job as a UK worker - in that industry at least,But, whether it’s Naples, neighbouring Fort Myers, or Miami, Florida; or Los Angeles or Palm Springs, California, there is also a lot of money in America. You can see it everywhere. It is several standard deviations of wealth up from the UK. The wealth is visible in the houses—even the middle-class houses—in the cars, in the clothes, in the prices. We in the UK have been left behind. It was not always like this.That wealth gap is only going to get bigger, as the UK continues to pursue high taxes, big regulation, mass migration, and zero growth, while the US goes in the other direction. The place is full of opportunity.Go to the US. Move there if you can, especially if you are young. The US was already something special, but something really special is happening there: the Washington purges are cleaning the place up. You’ve read the news, you’ve been on X, you’ve seen what’s going on. You really don’t need me to tell you.But watch what you eat. I put on 5 pounds (2 kilos) in just two weeks. Mind you, I couldn’t stop eating. The food is yum. (People in the gym kept asking me how I got to be so lean - “by not living in America, and not eating American food” I explained).I don’t believe this level of political reform would have happened to anything like the same extent without the involvement of Elon Musk. He really is doing God’s work rooting out all that corruption. What emerges will be so much cleaner, more efficient, more honest, and more united.But of all the things I actually witnessed in person, do you know what most blew my mind?I did not expect this.It wasn’t $295 million dollar houses. It wasn’t all the private aircraft in Naples airport next to where we were recording.It was driving in a Tesla on autopilot. I’d never done it before. I know I am late to this, but OMG.Matty typed our destination into his computer, put the car into self-driving mode. Off it went.The Tesla was a noticeably better driver than I am. It positioned itself on the road well, staying in the middle of the lane at all times. It cornered beautifully. It maintained the exact right distance to the car ahead. It knew the speed limits of all the roads we drove on. It knew when the lights were changing and set off straight away. It has a 360-degree awareness—a human can only look in one direction—and knew exactly what other cars nearby were doing. It didn’t get impatient and start doing silly things like jumping lights.With machine learning, each Tesla is feeding info back to HQ, so that every car is learning from the others’ experiences. Teslas know the roads - every inch of them - better than you, even the local roads. They are learning how to deal with every conceivable traffic incident. This data-driven driving constantly updates.I am a backseat driver. I often push my foot down on the imaginary brake. As I was getting over my control issues, I did this at a red light in the distance. Turns out it was miles away. The Tesla braked at exactly the right time.It got us to our destination and then reversed and parked with precision into a tight spot. I’m a good parker. The Tesla was better. Of course it was. It has 360-degree vision, and my neck is getting stiff.The driving conditions were good. But how much better would it be in rain, fog or ice, I wondered.Tesla, Matty pointed out, is as much a software company—a platform like Airbnb, Facebook or TripAdvisor—as it is a car company.The next day, I had an Uber drive me from Naples to Miami airport.The Uber driver was good, but sometimes he was doing things on his phone—changing the podcast he was listening to, updating the map. “Look at the road,” I found myself thinking. Sometimes overt the 2-hour journey he strayed from the centre of the lane. One time he braked sharply. No such imperfection in the Tesla.Transport as we know it is about to changeThe main barriers to Tesla’s self-driving progress are regulatory, but a certain Elon Musk is now in a position of influence. One of the reasons he is doing what he is doing is to clear out the regulators and bureaucrats who were so biased against him and blocked his progress—whom he came to despise.I think the regulatory barriers to self-driving vehicles start to come down quickly. Self-driving vehicles will soon be a feature on US roads. Then what happens?“I will have my car drop me at the office,” said Matty, “instruct it to pick me up at five, and then in the meantime I’ll put it to work”. In other words, his car will not be idly parked all day. It will spend the day ferrying other people about. It will earn him money.Other Tesla owners will do the same. Suddenly owning a Tesla will become potentially profitable. A car will not be quite such a depreciating asset. No doubt some will buy fleets of them. Like any platform, Tesla itself is going to take a cut of the profit.Just to get the self-driving capability added to the software of the vehicle, you must pay another ten grand. Then comes the rent.Leaving your car parked 95% of the time, as most of us do—my car in London can stay parked for weeks at a time—is so inefficient. Not for much longer. At least, in the US. It’ll be years before we allow it here in the UK or Europe. Of course, it will.What happens to American roads in the meantime? Fewer people are going to own cars, especially in cities. They won’t need to. They can just call a Tesla. What happens to the rest of the auto industry? Fewer car sales. The cost of taxis though comes down. Drivers lose their jobs to robots. I guess something similar happens to the trucking industry too.The roads themselves are used more efficiently, as robots drive demonstrably better, leading to better traffic flow and less congestion.Public transport will see fewer users. Why use such a smelly system when you can travel privately in a Tesla? Self-driving cars were a pipe dream. That is about to change. American roads are about to change.There are other self-driving operators - Waymo, Cruise, or Mobileye - which are already fully operational in limited areas (ie driverless). They have partnered with the likes of Jaguar, Mercedes, Volvo and Hyundai, but they do not have Tesla’s end-to-end autonomy. Nor do they have Tesla’s immense network effect.The network effect is an incredibly powerful force in the evolution of a business. It’s often more important that the tech itself (why, for example, VHS beat Betamax or CDs obliterated minidisk). It’s why I advocate bitcoin ahead of other sh*tcoins. Tesla’s dominance of roads could be on a par with Apple’s dominance of the smartphone market. It is ahead of the pack.So should we all be buying stock in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)?Let’s take a financial overview.Phew! It’s an expensive company. A lot of what I’ve already described must already be priced in.With a market cap now over $1 trillion, it is among the world's most valuable companies.Annual revenue in 2024 was $98 billion, with minimal growth on the previous year. The pro-electric narrative of a few years ago has dissipated over the last couple of years.EBITDA for the twelve months ending in December 2024 was $15 billion. The EV-to-EBITDA, which compares the company's enterprise value to its EBITDA, stands at around 72, indicating a “premium valuation” relative to its operational earnings.Its trailing P/E ratio is high, high, high at 177, as is its forward P/E of 124. A lot of earnings growth is expected. This could reflect anticipation of Tesla’s expansion into new markets, battery technology, and/or the self-driving revolution I have described, but it also points to a richly priced stock, for which investors are paying a substantial premium. The Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio, at 8.5, also implies Tesla is overvalued.Any setback—some kind of bad accident, a large insurance claim, a rival technology becoming suddenly competitive—and this stock can take a big hit.Turning to the company’s financial health and profitability, Tesla's Return on Equity (ROE) is 10.4%—I’ve seen worse—and its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is 6%, which denotes an efficient use of capital, something Musk is known for.Tesla maintains a relatively low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18, suggesting a conservative approach to leverage, which should reduce volatility. The current ratio of 2.02 indicates good short-term liquidity, allowing Tesla to meet its short-term liabilities comfortably.But it is a volatile stock—so perhaps one to buy on weakness. The 52-week high is $488, the low $139. You can more than double your money if you buy this well. Currently at $350 we are in the middle of the range—well up from the lows, but also well off the highs—and in a downtrend.Analysts, meanwhile, are divided. Predictions range from $115.00 to $550.00. reflecting a wide range of expectations.Tesla is unique. It has the potential to transform transport as we currently know it. It could have enormous first-mover advantage and a near monopoly on roads, as more and more people “put their car to work,” and what is currently an expense becomes a secondary source of income. It is the market leader, it is the technological leader, it could enjoy something of a monopoly on roads as it drives ahead of its competitors.To maintain and grow this valuation, it needs to stay ahead of rivals, it needs to overcome the regulatory barriers it faces, and it needs to manage the many inherent risks of the automotive and tech industries.But one thing Elon Musk has is vision. He will have seen all of this and be working towards it.I can quite easily envisage a scenario where Tesla’s dominance of roads is near monopolistic—like Apple’s dominance of phones or something.In such a scenario, its valuation will be a lot higher.It’ll make money on the car, on the software, then on the rental.It will also be the most common car on the roads. Transport is about to change.Disclaimer:I am not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other regulatory body as a financial advisor. Therefore, any information provided in this newsletter does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is solely an expression of opinion. Stocks are inherently risky. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor if you have any doubts. Remember, markets can both rise and fall. I am not aware of your individual financial circumstances, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Join me for my next live video in the app This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comHundreds of tonnes of gold - so much so that there is now something of a shortage in London - have made their way across the Atlantic to the US to get ahead of Trump tariffs. Something like 400 tonnes have gone to the Comex alone, never mind what's gone to the private vaults of HSBC, JP Morgan et al.With a shortage of physical gold for delivery in London, waiting times now as long as eight weeks, and the Bank of England refusing to comment, there are all sorts of rumours flying about. It's not a great situation for London, which is normally the epicentre of the physical gold markets.I don't think we're going to get a proper run on gold, but it's possible nonetheless, and if we do, talk about unintended consequences...A bit of zip in the normally quite sleepy physical markets.Today, however, I wanted to give my outlook on gold for 2025. Before I do this, I have two things to plug:One is my mate Charlie Morris' newsletter, Atlas Pulse. This monthly gold report is, in my view, the best out there bar none, and it's free. More here.And, two, if you are thinking of buying gold - and I think everyone should own some - my preferred bullion dealer is the Pure Gold Company. You should get your gold or silver from them.Gold’s Silent SurgeThe gold price has been rising relentlessly since November 2022.Here we are in early 2025, within a few dollars of all-time highs at $2,800.Gold is at or close to all-time highs against the Japanese yen, the euro, the Swiss franc, the Great British peso, the Aussie and Canadian dollars, and pretty much any other fiat currency you care to mention.And yet I don't recall seeing much mention of this anywhere. This is very much a stealth bull market, the best kind of bull market. It means there is plenty more hype left in the can.Private investors are almost completely ignoring gold. In Germany, normally one of the biggest buyers of physical, I gather we are seeing net selling in the retail markets. One reason is there's profit to be had, especially for those who bought during Covid - of which there are many . Two, because the economy is in the toilet and people need the money. Higher rates in recent years have dampened both investment and speculative demand for gold.A lot of the money that fuels the junior end of the mining markets also comes from retail buying, and if they're not buying bullion, they are certainly not buying miners: hence the atrophy there.So who is buying then, if the price keeps on going up? The answer, as regular readers of the Flying Frisby will be able to tell you straight away, is central banks, especially in Asia. This trend accelerating after the US began freezing Russian assets following its invasion of Ukraine.China imported 124 tonnes just in November, writes Jan Nieuwenhuijs of the Gold Observer. It has bought 1,050 tonnes since the Russian Freeze, and it is buying 400 oz bars from London, which are almost certainly making their way to the People's Bank of China - 400 oz bars do not trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. It is also buying roughly three times as much as it declares.The explanation is obvious. Central banks need reserve assets which other governments can't freeze, so-called bearer assets. Gold, which is value in and of itself, is the answer. There is no equal.Here we see gold as a percentage of central bank reserves is now at 20%.I doubt we go back to the heady pre-WWII days when gold made up 80-90% of reserves - money was not fiat then - but you can see the trend is very much up. It has been for 10 years now. The percentage has doubled in that time. I see no reason why it can't double again in the next ten years. 40 % of reserves held in gold seems like a reasonable number, a conservative number.Nations are, says Nieuwenhuijs, "obviously preparing for a multipolar world in which the dollar's role as a reserve asset will be gently reduced."You can look at all this and describe the process as natural and sensible asset allocation: diversification away from other government currencies, especially the US dollar. Or you can proclaim that other nations are preparing to abandon the dollar and for a new gold standard. It's probably about 80% former and 20% latter. That may well change - but we are not there yet.While nations might not be so much abandoning the dollar as they are simply increasing their gold holdings, they, are, however, reducing their holdings of US Treasuries. De-dollarisation and diversification.At the moment, the whole process is covert and benign, but it may become a lot more significant a few years from now.I urge you too to be diversified and own plenty of gold. It may well be that you are going to need it, and you're better off booking your seat on the lifeboat now while they are still available. This is especially the case if you are in the UK: there has never been a Labour government that didn't devalue, and this particular lot are flip-flopping and clueless. My guide to buying gold is here, in case of use:I don't see any reason for this central bank buying to abate, by the way. My prognosis is that it continues.What about the new President?I want to, briefly, consider gold and President Donald Trump.Here is what gold did last time he was in power.