The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

I thought I might share a few random bits and bobs from my little life for you to ponder today, starting with various interviews.Here I am on the mighty James Delingpole’s podcast, talking about most subjects, though squabbling about conspiracy theories.Then there is this interview with Jasmine Birtles for the Money Magpie podcast, talking mostly about gold and property. (Audio on Spotify; video on YouTube). Also this radio interview with ABC Australia, I was quite pleased with. Here it is.And, if bitcoin is your thing, here I am on the Discovering Bitcoin podcast.Right. That’s all the interviews done.A Thief in our MidstTurning to matters closer to home, there is a beautiful cat, pictured below, which belongs to a Chinese lady, who lives three doors up. She visits my garden every morning (the cat not the Chinese lady) as I am getting my 15 minutes of sun, purrs seductively, gets stroked, and then wanders off on its day to do who knows what. If I leave the back door open, she will come into my house and visit me at my desk, stretch out luxuriantly and, if I pick her up, start padding my chest pleasantly. I thought we had become friends.Well, you can’t trust anyone.I now discover this feline fiend has been sneaking into my son’s room to steal his socks, which it then brings back to its owner three doors up. Here it is. Caught red handed.A Rare Trip to the TheatreOn Wednesday I went to see The Comedy About Spies in the West End. It’s not something I would have normally gone to watch, but my friend Tom Woods had some tickets he couldn’t use and so off I went with my next door neighbour. I thought it was terrific. Thank you Tom!I’m obsessed with farce. Always have been since I first watched Fawlty Towers as a little boy. (I actually did my university thesis on Fawlty Towers). It’s my favourite form of theatre by a country mile. I love the precision of it, along with the heightened emotion and panic. Done well there is no better narrative form, in my opinion. Films like Midnight Run and TV series like Curb Your Enthusiasm, in my view, embrace farcical plot schemes. But if you want a farce in its purest form on film, watch What’s Up Doc. Just the best.The premise of The Comedy About Spies is a little bit forced, but the jokes are fab, there are hundreds of them, one after the other, they are brilliantly executed and with incredible precision - it’s wonderful to see a show this tight. By the end I even found myself moved by the characters. I LOLed many times. What can I say? It’s really good. What’s your favourite farce? Let me know in the comments.The South Africanisation of EverythingIn other, less positive news, on Tuesday evening I found myself walking down the Kilburn High Road for the first time in about 25 years. It was always a bit rough around the edges - up there with Elephant & Castle and Streatham High Road as one of London's most worst thoroughfares - but my God it was eye-opening as to where the UK is going / has gone.Litter everywhere, people off their faces, drugs being dealt openly on the street, beggars, a woman knocked over by a bloke cycling a Lime bike on the pavement, the bloke unapologetic, little trust between visible between people in this multi-cultural mayhem. Talk about lack of cohesion. (I drove through Harlesden the other night and that was bad too).It confirmed my theory of the South Africanisation of everything. (Actually it’s my friend Alex’s theory, but I have purloined it). It prompted me to dig up this piece from a couple of years back, which at one point was the most read piece on this ‘ere Substack. On re-reading it now, I’m rather proud of it. Recommended.The Secret History of GoldIn personal news, I am glad/relieved to say I submitted the final proofs for my new book on gold which comes out in August - the Secret History of Gold (I haven’t actually announced it yet, which I will in due course). Writing a book is an enormous undertaking. Publicising it is an even greater one. I’m glad stage one is complete.How about this for a fact?In 1930 the price of gold was £4.25 per ounce, as it was in 1716 when Isaac Newton set the price over 200 years earlier. FOUR POUNDS 25p. Today it's £2,475 per ounce. From £4.25 to £2,475. That's how much we've been robbed by currency depreciation.How have they (successive governments) been able to get away with this?Because representative democracy does not work is why.Thank goodness for gold. Thank goodness for bitcoin. Speaking of which:As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.The Mid-Year ReviewWearing my satirical comedy hat, I have a big gig coming up on May 20 in East London. These nights are usually pretty memorable - and for the right reasons.If you are free, come along. You can get tickets here. It would be great to see you.Finally, in case you missed this week’s commentary, here it is:Have a lovely bank holiday weekend.Fun fact: Mayday - not as in the bank holiday, but as in the distress call for a ship or a plane is actually from the French, “M’aidez” - help me. May Day is an ancient festival to celebrate the beginning of summer (or as is the case in the UK this year, the end of summer), though socialists hijacked it with International Workers’ Day. So now we are all crying “M’aidez” on May Day.Tell your friends about this entertaining catch up. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI spoke about gold this week to ABC Australia. This little interview may be of some interest. Here it is. Meanwhile …It’s as though the whole tariff thing never happened, the way stock markets are rallying. I think it’s seven green days in a row now.Everybody is getting very excited about a rare technical signal we got last Thursday - - there have only been 16 of them since the S&P500 was created in 1957, including the latest on April 24, 2025. But this signal has a 100% reliability record, and has been followed by average 6-month returns of 15% and a 12-month returns of 23%. That’s a pretty stellar record. So I just wanted to offer my 2p.The indicator - the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator (ZBT) - was first observed in the 1986 Martin Zweig book, Winning on Wall Street (which I confess to not having read). It occurs when a market swings from an oversold to an overbought reading within 10 trading days.Eight of them have occurred since the book was published: in 2004, in 2009 (shortly after the March lows at 666), in 2011 after the taper tantrum, in 2013, 2015, 2018 and in 2023 twice. Now we have one coming off the “tariff tantrum”, as I’ve just dubbed it.However, before you go out and gamble your entire life savings, note that back in 2015 technical analyst Tom McClellan published a detailed study of ZBT signals, which went back much further than the 1957 formation of the S&P500 - all the way to 1928.During the bear market of the 1930s Great Depression, there were multiple occurrences of the signal - 14 of them - and it was horribly unreliable: 10 led to losses or negligible gains, 2 preceded strong rallies, and 2 were flat. It was useless, in other words.So, in short, it’s been good since 1957, but was rubbish before. A bit like stereos.There are plenty of reasons to remain cautious. The high levels of volatility we are witnessing are consistent with a bear market not a bull market. There are also high levels of uncertainty: what is actually going to happen with tariffs? Nobody quite knows. I’m not sure even the President. Plus we are going into May, usually a weak time of year for the stock market. And it may be that the consequences of Trump’s tariff talk have not yet been felt in the US on the ground. One argument is that there has been a huge drop off in container ships leaving China. A container would typically take 30 days to reach LA, and another 10-20 days to get to the major cities - Houston, Chicago, New York et al. So the drop-off in container ships leaving China after Liberation Day won’t be felt until mid-May. If there is a pick up in shipments, that wouldn’t be felt till another month after that. Some are saying supply shortages are coming to the US. Have a read of this and see what you think. Markets usually price this kind of stuff in, but you never know. Cui bono?Among the sectors that should benefit from Trump’s America first policies are US domestic mining and manufacturing. Here the regulatory environment is changing fast. Trump signed an executive order on March 20 with the aim of accelerating production of critical minerals. Federal agencies have actually been mandated to look to the US for priority metals - copper, gold, nickel, uranium and so - when they previously looked abroad. We are already seeing faster permitting. I hear that formerly dormant projects are seeing activity for the first time in years. Emails are being answered promptly, applications are being processed, even in states like California. This new environment is positive for oil and gas producers, miners, explorers and developers in the US. The problem is that commodity prices have dropped off a cliff. There’s always a catch.Even so, one company that should benefit from this new macro environment is this potential multi-bagger.On which, note I wanted to give you a related heads up.

We have a video for your Sunday thought piece today, in which I walk round my local supermarket and identify all the foods which have seed oils (spoiler - almost all of them).Ever wondered which foods in your supermarket are packed with seed oils? Join me on a clandestine mission around my local shop to unveil some hard truths about pizzas, hummus, sausage rolls, and even granola. Seed oils infiltrate nearly every packaged item—and you should care. By the way, my original piece on seed oils is one of the most read articles on this substack, interestingly enough. Here is is, if you haven’t already read it:I hope you find it useful and/or entertaining.Have a lovely Sunday.DominicPS ICYMI, here’s my midweek commentary:As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comGold again today. I just can’t stop writing about it.Another day. Another new high. We touched $3,500 in the early hours of yesterday morning.That’s 27 new highs in the gold price so far this year.Yet there is still something about this bull market that doesn’t feel right or complete: it’s not confirmed by silver, which should be trading north of $50. Instead it’s mired around $32. Nor is this bull market confirmed by the miners, which, in most cases, are nowhere near all-time highs.Nevertheless, on the basis of gold’s price relative to equities, commodities and houses, as outlined last week, gold is starting to look expensive. Is it time to have an eye on the exit?In the short term, maybe. It’s overbought. We are going into a weak time of year for gold (May to August). But that’s why I like physical. It stops you trading!How about this for a chart?It now takes more work than at any time in the last 100 years to buy an ounce of gold.This is as much a function of declining wages in real terms, and the erosion in value of fiat, as it is the price of gold, but all the same it’s pretty incredible: how we’ve all been lied to!There are, though, many signs that gold is now fully valued.But these are not normal times.And a “proper” bull market will see blow-off tops in silver and the miners. We don’t have that yet.Let me give you six more reasons (ie largely previously unmentioned reasons) not to be selling your gold.1. You live in the UK.(This is one I have mentioned before). Do not be fooled by the fact that the pound has been performing relatively well in the foreign exchange markets this year. It has lost 37% of its purchasing power since 2020 and has repeatedly proven to be a rotten store of value.The interest on UK gilts is rising, meaning it is getting increasingly expensive for the government to pay for its own debt. We’re above Liz Truss levels and the trend is rising.We’ve got high energy costs too.What this government is actually doing to rein in its spending is one thing. What needs to be done is something else. There is no Elon Musk taking the guillotine to it all. The scale of our government inefficiency, waste, corruption, misallocation of capital is both larger, relative to GDP, and more entrenched than in the US. At the level of government we are not even having a conversation about what needs to be done, let alone actually doing anything.Nor is there any likelihood of this country re-industriali sing. We’ll just have to hope people buy our services, what few we offer. In the meantime we’ll keep borrowing to pay for stuff.The only way is currency debasement. There has never been a Labour government that did not devalue sterling. Think this one will be any different? Do not store your wealth in sterling. They take enough from you in taxes as it is. Don’t let them take any more.As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.2. Chinese retailI’m endlessly wittering on about China’s central bank buying gold, but one thing I confess I’ve overlooked is Chinese retail buying. Its real estate and stock markets have both been rubbish, the former especially, so they are buying gold instead. Then think about the sheer size of China’s retail market: over a billion potential buyers. Never mind central bank buying, the potential scale of this thing is enormous. What if they al buy an ounce each?When do they stop buying and start selling? When their real estate and stock markets pick up … Meanwhile, China’s central bank, the PBOC, which says it bought 5 tonnes last month, actually bought ten times that. (De-dollarisation, which is perhaps the biggest factor of the lot, except re-monetisation, does not even make it onto this list as I‘ve covered it so many times before).3. What about Western retail? What about Western institutions? Western retail and institutional investors have been slow to this bull market and are under-allocated. As my buddy Ross Norman says, “this gold rally has not, to date, been driven by retail investors buying coins and bars, high net clients clamouring for physical, nor institutions buying the gold ETF, not even speculative flows to any great extent. This has been an incredibly low participation rally. A stealth run even”. Portfolios are roughly 2% allocated to gold at present. They were four times that at the peak of the last bull market in 2011. That means a lot of room for more Western buying.Since the confiscation of Russian assets, central banks have bought every pullback to the 50-day moving average. But it’s not just central banks now, retail and institutional investors the world over are coming to the party. And if you think they’re underweight gold, wait until you see how underweight they are gold miners. (Even these are slowly starting to move - MTL anyone :)?)4. Gold vs the Nasdaq - OMGTrends in this ratio tend to go on for a long time, like ten years or more.How about this for a chart?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comCongratulations to all who bought. Gold is now trading above $3,300. Goldman Sachs has raised its target to $4,000/oz. It’s all going swimmingly. But nothing lasts forever.(Actually gold does, but you know what I mean).So, today, I want to ask: when do we sell our gold?To answer that question, I am going to look at some long-term ratios.How is gold looking relative to stocks, to other commodities and against house prices? (We’ll look at gold versus house prices in the US, the UK and Australia).There is a strong argument, by the way, for never selling your gold, especially if you’re in a country such as the UK with an unreliable national currency. If you don’t need the money, keep the gold and pass it on to your heirs - and tell them to do the same. But macro conditions are not always as gold-friendly as they are now. See the 1980s and 90s for more details.What’s more, given how these trade wars are unfolding, with unpayable levels of debt across the western world and China’s extraordinary accumulation of gold, there is a significant chance - say, 25% - that gold ends up being remonetized somehow.(If China wants global reserve status for its yuan, it’ll almost certainly have to make it exchangeable for gold - meaning higher gold prices. But even if not, all China has to do is declare it’s real gold holdings, and the price will rocket).In the event of remonetisation, which also means some kind of crisis, gold prices will be dramatically higher. However, it’s also likely that your gold would either be confiscated or heavily taxed, so that the gains from the revaluation (aka fiat devaluation) pass to the state rather than the citizen, as happened in the US under Roosevelt in 1933.But let us leave such speculation for another day.As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.Gold vs StocksI want to start with the Dow-to-Gold ratio: how many ounces of gold does it take to buy the Dow?There is much history in this chart. It’s quite something.You can see how, most of the time, the ratio stays within that green band. It is only at points of maximum extremity that it goes beyond, such as:* The peak of the stock market in 1929* The Great Depression in 1932* The suppression of gold in the 1960s, ending with the collapse of the gold standard in 1971* The peak of 1970s gold mania, inflation, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan* The end of the gold bear market in 2000 and the peak of DotcomToday, with gold at $3,300 and the Dow at 40,000, it takes 12 ounces of gold to buy the Dow - and we are in the low- to mid-range of that green prediction band.At the peak of the last gold bull market in September 2011, the ratio reached 5.7.To reach such a level again, either the gold price would have to double (possible) or the Dow would have to halve (unlikely, I would have thought). Most probable is something along the lines of the Dow falling 25% and gold rising another 50%.Would this ratio ever go to 1:1, as it did in 1980? If so, we would be looking at a gold price in the tens of thousands.It’s possible, I suppose.I think a ratio of 5-8 is a reasonable possible target. Here’s a similar history of gold against the S&P 500:Today, we are at 1.7. It takes 1.7 oz to buy the S&P.The ratio reached 0.2 in the 1930s and 1940s. It went to 0.13 in 1980.I doubt we’ll see that again.But that 2011 level of 0.6, or perhaps even a little below if things get really spicy, is not an unreasonable target, I suppose. That could mean the S&P500 at 4,200 and gold at $7,000/oz. Something like that.So that’s some bull food for you.In the interests of balance, let’s now put some bearish fodder on the menu.We’ll start with gold versus oil - and the bad news. Then we’ll look at gold and house prices.

I’m excited to share a brand-new video diving into one of the most gripping questions in finance and geopolitics: How much gold does America actually have? You may have read my piece on this from a few weeks back. Here it is in video form: a deep dive into the rumours, history, and high stakes surrounding US gold reserves—and what the upcoming audit might reveal. My thanks go to Will Freeman for all his hard work crafting this. Whether you’re revisiting the mystery or uncovering it for the first time, this is a story that matters in today’s world. Please let me know what you think in the comments.Given everything that is going on in the world, we recommend people to own some gold in the portfolio. Our recommended bullion dealer I recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.And if you missed yesterday’s piece - also on gold - here it is. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Gold broke out to new highs on Friday: $3,237/oz. It is proving one of the prime beneficiaries of all the market mayhem, and no surprise. Gold is your hedge against government, and this is all a creation of government.Where to park capital? Equities are all over the place and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. With US authorities transparent about wanting it lower, the US dollar is not the safe haven it’s been since 2007 in market sell-offs. As for treasuries, they’ve become a weapon in the trade wars.Inert gold, on the other hand, is neutral. It doesn’t care which side of the trade wars, the culture wars, or any other wars you’re on, and at the moment, it seems everyone wants a piece.China, we learn thanks to the sleuthing of analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs, bought another 570 tonnes in 2024. Who knows how much more it has bought in 2025? To put that 570-tonne number in perspective, the UK’s total holdings are 310 tonnes.Tell your friends.What’s driving it all?This move in gold started shortly after the US confiscated $300 billion in Russian state holdings after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It hasn’t been driven by retail. Central bank buying has pushed up the price.If you’re not on Team US or Team G7, why own assets they can confiscate, like dollars or treasuries?Own gold instead. The US would have to invade you to take your gold—or send in Kelly’s Heroes.In 1950, gold made up 70% of international reserves. In the noughties, it was just 10%. The dollar, meanwhile, reached 60%, with the euro at another 20%.Now gold is at 20%, the dollar at 45%, and the euro at 15%. The trend is clear, as this cool little video from Nieuwenhuijs and Money Metals shows:In my opinion, we’ll be at 40% five years from now.Here’s gold since late 2022. Every pullback has been bought. It’s as though someone with deep pockets is saying, “Buy the pullback every time it hits the 50-day moving average (red line).”The UK seems to have been forgotten in this global rout, but I have little doubt the chickens of our shocking national finances and woeful productivity will soon come home to roost in the form of a sterling crisis. That’s when we overlooked Britishers will be mighty glad we have our gold.Gold is now £2,475/oz. Another year of this, and we’ll be north of £3,000.Summer is approaching, and May to August is typically when gold is weakest. Take advantage of pullbacks, is my advice. Do what the Chinese are doing. They’re smarter than we are (when it comes to gold, at least).With oil having cratered, we should finally see gold miners fetch a proper bid. (They are already moving a little). Energy can represent 15% to 40% of mining costs. Lower costs and a higher price for the final product should mean they make more money, and thus higher share prices. (I’ll cover miners again soon, I promise, though I am worried I’ll jinx it)Here’s something Charlie Morris observed—and you really should subscribe to his gold newsletter, Atlas Pulse; it’s top dog in a crowded field - it’s free. GDX is the largest gold mining ETF by far. Despite higher gold prices, it’s seen outflows of 25% over the past year. When inflows start, these things will rocket. The sector is tiny relative to the capital out there.Here’s three years of Brent, FYI. It’s almost the reverse of gold. Good for mining.If you’re interested in buying gold, by the way - and you should own some, if you don’t already, given everything that is going on - the bullion dealer I recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.A 2-minute video for your Sunday entertainmentI’ve got lots of content coming up over the next fortnight. I’ve just returned from two days of bitcoin conferences, so I’m fired up about that. I’ve got that gold mining piece to write. I have a lot more to say about gold. I have a fab video to share with you which I will send out tomorrow. And I want to explore where we should deploy capital in all this market mayhem: which sectors will do well in tariff wars, and which won’t. So, plenty to come.You ought to subscribe.In the meantime, as it’s the weekend, enjoy this silly little 3-minute vid I put together for my comedy Substack - not to be taken seriously - about alien invaders on planet Earth stealing our gold at the dawn of civilization. (Click the image below)Finally, if you’re interested in gold and haven’t already seen it, here’s my guide to investing int he shiny stuff. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI don’t normally put out market commentary on a Sunday, especially on a Sunday evening, but the events of last week were so extraordinary I feel I have to.We are in full-on crash mode, it seems. The price action reminds me of the Covid panic or even 2008. It almost doesn’t matter what you own. Portfolios around the world have been battered.The declines in the final two days of last week, since so-called “Liberation Day”, when President Trump announced his tariffs, are roughly as follows:* Bitcoin: -1%* Gold: -3%* S&P 500: -9%* Nasdaq: -10%* Brent Crude: -12.5%* Copper: -13% (phew!)Magnificent Seven:* MSFT: -6%* GOOGL: -7%* AMZN: -13%* META: -14%* NVDA: -15%* TSLA: -15%* AAPL: -17%We are, of course, very long gold and bitcoin here at The Flying Frisby, so I guess we’ve come out of this comparatively unscathed. What’s more, we have a good allocation to wealth preservation in the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. But our speculative positions, like everyone’s, have been hit, and I’m angry with myself for not getting more defensive sooner. I’ve been saying for some time I don’t like the price action one bit- eg here and here - and the words of that freaky preacher keep ringing in my ears.In any case, there’s no point beating myself up. Life is easy in hindsight. Investing is even easier.I spent considerable time on Friday and Saturday reading and watching interviews, trying to understand exactly what these tariffs are about and what the implications are, and I think I have come up with something of a roadmap.We’ll start by explaining the plan. Then we’ll look at what comes next. And, finally, we’ll look at what to do with some of our recent speculations.Why our opinion is irrelevantI’m a free-trade guy, or at least I was. I’m not quite sure what I am any more. But I’m not going to waste my time - or yours - here with arguments about whether tariffs are a good thing or not. There’s no point. My time - and yours - would be as well spent howling at the moon. As far as I know, Donald Trump isn’t a reader of The Flying Frisby. He knows his own mind and he’s not going to turn to this Substack, or any of our social media feeds, for policy advice.Don’t be like DT. Subscribe to the Flying Frisby.Tariffs are here, and they’re here to stay. Trump is attempting a major economic redesign - the kind of reset that those who rail against economic injustice have been calling for for years. Now it’s here, and as we look at our portfolios, many of us aren’t so sure we want it.What I want to understand, first, is the logic behind the tariffs, then their implications, so we can best navigate them.The first thing to note I’ve already said: Trump isn’t going to backtrack. As I watched tumbling share prices on Friday, I thought to myself—he’s going to backtrack. He has to. But Trump isn’t the Conservative Party, or indeed the Labour Party, changing tack at the slightest sign of discontent. Critics say he’ll cave if stocks keep tanking, I’m not so sure. His track record suggests otherwise, and he’s put a loyal and strong team together to back him up and implement his plan.He’s going to give his tariffs longer than a couple of days to have an impact.Many say Trump hasn’t properly thought this through. Of course, he has. He’s been thinking about it night and day for years. He’ll have been thinking about little else as he wrestles with the problem of how to reinvigorate industrial America. That doesn’t mean his plan will work, but the idea he hasn’t thought about it is just a facile invention of Trump perma-critics to use against him.Trump may be a bit of a clown - he has a comedic instinct and can’t resist a gag - but he’s not stupid. Clowns rarely are.Why Trump’s doing what he’s doingTrump intensely dislikes the decimation of industrial America, which began in the 1980s and still continues, with the outsourcing of manufacturing to Asia and elsewhere. Even 40 years ago , he was giving interviews about this (hence why I say he has thought it through) and he wants to restore it. That’s part of what he means when he says, “Make America great again.”He can see that while the American coasts may have thrived, thanks largely to finance and tech, much of what is in between has not. This is the America he wants to make great again.There are two reasons he wants to revive American industry. First, is that he believes the model by which America takes on debt to buy cheap stuff from China is unsustainable and has to stop - and the sooner the better. So it’s for the good of the American economy. Second, is for reasons of security. While China and the US may be trading partners now, they are also rivals, and if your rival is making your essential military and strategic equipment and components, whether it’s semi-conductors, industrial and consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals or battery and energy storage systems, you have a big problem on your hands. Covid exposed just how fragile supply chains are, and Trump has taken it as an early warning sign.Something very similar, as readers of Daylight Robbery will know, happened in the US after its War of 1812 with the British, a war that lasted three years. The war badly exposed US over-reliance on British industrial goods, so the US introduced tariffs in 1816 to try and nurture and grow its own industry. Those tariffs ended up having grave long-term consequences (they were a major factor in the lead up to the civil war - but that was 45 years later). In the short term, they worked. (More on this here).Coming to America“Come and build your factories in the US,” Trump is saying. “Then you won’t pay tariffs. Relocate from China, Mexico, Vietnam.”Here’s a case in point. Jaguar Land Rover has already announced it’s halting shipments to the US for one month. Now, this company’s management - remember its recent rebrand? (see below) - is on the opposing side of the culture war to Donald Trump and MAGA, so that is one factor at play. But when I wrote my piece about how good self-driving Teslas are, a lot of people commented that the Jags are better. I don’t know—I haven’t been in one. But for sure, Jaguar Land Rover won’t want to lose momentum or network effect in this all important arms race, particularly while Tesla is struggling: 45% off its recent highs, victim to nationwide vandalism and Elon Musk no longer the darling but the villain of the eco-warrior left. So what does Jaguar do now? Not sell into the all-important US markets? Pay 25% tariffs? Or build a factory stateside? I think the answer is fairly obvious.Whatever it chooses to do, it’s going to take longer than a couple of days.With DOGE and the shrinking of the US state, meanwhile, there’ll be plenty of workers to fill those new positions. As the US state shrinks, its private sector grows. That’s the idea, anyway.His tariffs may lead to higher prices for American consumers, as many have pointed out, but not as high as widely thought, argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in this recent interview with Tucker Carlson (a recommended watch, by the way). Bessent’s calculations are that tariffs won’t gouge consumers as much as feared. What’s more, the revenue from tariffs could eventually enable lower levels of taxation back home, which will further ease pressure on US citizens, those who work at least.What about the upheaval Trump tariffs cause to the rest of the world? Not his problem. America first.Yet he’s creating enormous uncertainty, and markets are tanking. On Friday, markets were in full panic mode, and the baby was being thrown out with the bathwater. What about that?The amazing stat which shows why Trump won’t give two hoots about the stock market - for nowAt this point, I want to press upon you one of the most telling statistics I’ve seen for some time:* The richest 1% of Americans own 50% of US stocks, worth $23 trillion.* The bottom 50% of U.S. adults hold only 1% of stocks, worth $480 billion.If you expand to the top 10%, that group holds 87% of stocks, valued at $36 trillion. If I’m correctly inferring Bessent’s comments, at this current point, Trump doesn’t care about Wall Street, or Silicon Valley, or the parts of the US economy that have become so rich over the past 40 years. It’s the bottom 50 - or even 80% - that Trump is concerned with. They hardly own any stocks, so the market mayhem won’t matter so much to them. Wall Street has made good for decades. It can suffer a bit of pain while Main Street gets rebuilt.It’s worth noting, by the way, that US equities were enormously overvalued when Trump took office, so some kind of correction had to happen anyway. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was at its third highest level in history (the only times it was higher was 2000 and 2007, and we all know what happened next). That’s why Warren Buffett built up his enormous cash position two months ago ($330 billion). Buffett, by the way, really is a genius.Best to get the inevitable correction out of the way early in the Presidency. What’s more, as Bessent points out, these market declines began several weeks ago with China’s AI announcement of DeepSeek, the app that can do everything ChatGPT and Grok can do with much lower power use. Prior to that, the Magnificent Seven had driven the extraordinary gains seen in the S&P 500 over the previous 18 months. Strip them out, and the picture was much less rosy. (Now the Mag7’re down 30-45%).Trump’s announcement may have pricked the bubble, but a bubble is still a bubble and if one thing doesn’t burst it, something else will.Trump’s plan, meanwhile, (and I’m not saying it’ll work, everyone will have their opinion) is not to boost the stock market. It is to reset the economy. The economy and the stock market are not the same thing.Some numbersThe US is trapped in a vicious debt spiral.$36 trillion is the current US National Debt. The US will spend $6 trillion this year, while only collecting $4 trillion in tax revenue. So there is a $2 trillion deficit. It will borrow the difference, and the debt will grow to $38 trillion. The DOGE plan is reduce the deficit by 1 trillion by getting rid of waste, corruption and more. The tariff plan is to raise another half trillion in revenue. Plus, as a result of tariffs, more business relocates to the US, which also increases revenue. Mass deregulation will also make doing business easier and further add to both economic growth and tax revenue. Then there is Trump citizenship plan. According to Grok, 1 million people worldwide could realistically afford to buy a US residency for $5 million. Let’s say 10% of them did that. That’s another $500 billion and the $2 trillion deficit is eradicated. Suddenly the US is running a surplus.This all means the US gets in a better position to lower taxes, which will further increase revenue (the golden rule of Daylight Robbery), because trade will increase as a result. Trump could lower corporation taxes to 15% which would be a lot more attractive than the rates of 20-30% paid in Europe. So business relocates to the US. He could lower income taxes, especially for high earners, thereby attracting higher earners to the US. Meanwhile, the cost of all that debt starts to come down, thereby freeing up even more capital.And, suddenly, you are in a virtuous cycle.These numbers make it look easy. But to get there takes an enormous fight - standing up to vested interests, taking on a cultural establishment that detests you, the media, the woke, Trump Derangement Syndrome and so on. It’s not easy, and it requires a lot of backbone. The three essential keys to the Trump resetSo what fundamentals does this economic reset need, and how does the US get there?First, it needs cheap energy. Cheap energy is fundamental to economic growth: economies need energy. That’s happening. Crude has fallen more than 10% since “Liberation Day”. Falls were turbocharged when, on Thursday, 8 OPEC nations made the surprise announcement that they were ending output cuts and increasing supply. Plus we have the domestic policy of drill baby drill. What with the plethora of natural gas and other shale energy co-products, we’re going to see a lot of cheap energy. (Which is going to make our own Ed Miliband’s high-energy-cost policies look even more deranged.)Second, it needs a cheaper dollar. A weaker dollar will encourage investment and relocation from overseas (it makes the US cheaper). That’s happening too. Indeed, what was so unique about this week’s panic is that the dollar—usually the first port of call in a financial storm—didn’t rise (at least not at first). Here is the US dollar index. It’s coming down. It’s already down almost 10% from its highs. That means America just got 10% cheaper to invest in. A move back to the low 90s, or even below, would be ideal.What is the third component?And what next for markets?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comTo watch a video version of this article, click here:We have more stock tips for you today with multibag potential.But first, let’s get political.Remember how the Conservative Party from David Cameron onwards effectively abandoned the right and became social democrats?Increased state spending everywhere, so that instead of shrinking the state they grew it, more taxes, higher taxes, more planning and regulation, more quangos and experts, ‘owning’ the NHS, green subsidies, Net Zero, social liberalism, MPs who didn’t represent the views of the membership, increased immigration, weaker policing, increased crime - and so on. Those were the days, eh?The Tories were so bereft of first principle, and so terrified of the left, particularly the left-wing media, that they pandered to it and eventually became it.I remember going on podcasts 18 months ago making the argument that Labour would do the same thing and lurch right. After an insert-disparaging-adjective-here first six months, which saw Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval ratings drop below even those of Rishi Sunak, we are starting to see that happen.With the books not balancing, suddenly spending is being cut. Not by a lot, but it’s happening. Starmer has axed NHS England, something the Tories would never have dared do, criticising “two layers of bureaucracy”. We have what the Independent calls “Austerity 2.0” with cuts to disability benefits and welfare spending. The foreign aid budget has been cut to spend more on defence. All of a sudden he is as champion of small businesses. Heck, he’s even fixing the potholes. Meanwhile, he is boasting on X about “securing our borders” and “removing illegal immigrants at the highest rate in 8 years”.“If you don’t have the right to be in this country, then you shouldn’t be here. It’s that simple,” he said yesterday. Does that sound like a Labour leader or Nigel Farage?When fantasy meets realityThe next right-wing shoe to drop is fossil fuels.Ed Miliband’s fantasies of climate justice and clean energy are slowly being exposed. His green delusion is going to be abandoned. If an economy is to grow, then it must consume more energy, not less. Wind and solar power are too expensive and too unreliable, never mind the damage they do to the environment and the carbon footprint they leave. They are already pledging to paint offshore wind farms black because of all the birds they are killing. Finally, an admission of the wildlife these things destroy.Offshore wind is not going to replace oil and gas. Fossil fuels remain a better, cheaper, cleaner and more reliable source of energy. For an already heavily taxed country that is living well beyond its means, where growth is the only thing that can save it, with the added pressure of Trump tariffs soon coming, needlessly expensive energy is not possible.The Reform party is making the cost of Net Zero one of its main lines of attack. All Labour has to do is further abandon the left of its party, a process which is already half complete, just as the Tories abandoned the right, and let Miliband go, which is inevitable anyway, and the Reform weapon is blunted.All the above is preamble to my main argument today. North Sea oil and gas is going to stage a comeback. This is going to happen, as sure as eggs are eggs. Political and economic reality mean it is inevitable. Otherwise, the national finances, and with them the Labour Government, evaporate. Power is more important to politicians than adhering to any zealotry, green or otherwise.The ban on new North Sea oil and gas licenses will be lifted. The taxes on North Sea oil companies will be lowered to incentivise activity (it’s effectively 78% at present. Are legislators demented?). And all those companies that saw their businesses and market caps decimated by this deluded religion are going to make a comeback. Some will multiply many times over. That’s what I think is going to happen, anyway. This also means, for we observers on the foothills of inconsequence, the time is nigh to buy North Sea oil and gas companies. So what are these companies and how do we invest?

If you enjoyed this video, please share it.A rant for you this Sunday morning. Enjoy!If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.By the way, in case of interest, I have the following comedy shows coming up int he next fortnight.* Bath, April 3. Tickets here. SOLD OUT* Bordon, Hampshire. April 12. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, May 14. SOLD OUT. (Waiting list only)* London, Backyard, May 20. The Mid Year Review Tickets here* London, Crazy Coqs, Sept 24. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Nov 5. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Dec 3. Tickets here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe