Eye On The Market

Exploring the impact of geopolitics on financial markets, including the Middle East situation and US energy sensitivity. Discussing the implications of new pillar two rules in Europe and the challenges of dealing with the US federal debt. Exploring the problems and gratitude in the United States along with creating a new American identity.

Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness. View transcript View video here View deck here

This podcast explores the achievements and limitations of generative AI models, discussing their uses in economics, markets, energy, and politics. It highlights the potential impact of large language models in various fields such as management consulting, programming, and medical diagnosis. The podcast also addresses the challenges faced in incorporating these models into workflows and the negative aspects of generating fake content and exploiting automated advertising processes.

Global resilience to higher rates View transcript View video and charts here

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs View transcript with chart references

Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while View transcript with chart references

Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.  This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon sequestration, a whydrogen update, the Russia-China energy partnership, methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore, for now. View transcript with chart references