Alpha Exchange

Rob Flatley, founder and CEO of TS Imagine and former electronic trading lead at Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, brings market-structure and risk-systems chops. He discusses AI moving from LLMs to RL-driven workflow automation. He explores prediction markets moving toward institutional use and how tokenization, atomic settlement, and stablecoins could reshape custody, collateral mobility, and 24/7 trading.

It was a pleasure to host a conversation with Hari Krishnan, Head of Volatility Strategies at SCT Capital, on the changing nature of volatility markets, portfolio hedging, and why commodities may offer increasingly valuable diversification in today’s environment. Hari reflects on his book Second Leg Down, which explores practical approaches to tail-risk hedging and the cyclical nature of volatility. He discusses how investors often ignore protection in calm periods, only to rush toward hedges after markets have already repriced risk. That dynamic leads to a broader conversation on planning, budgeting, and approaching hedging as an ongoing portfolio discipline rather than a reactive decision. We then turn to option markets more broadly, including volatility risk premium, skew, and the challenge of protecting against fat-tailed outcomes. Hari explains why moderately out-of-the-money options often embed persistent premium, while deeper tail risks can be difficult to price with confidence. The conversation then shifts to commodities, where Hari sees a differentiated opportunity set. We discuss how producer hedging, end-user demand, and forward-curve dynamics create a very different volatility ecosystem than that in equities. He outlines a strategy focused on gaining long exposure to select commodities while using options structures to reduce carry costs and preserve upside convexity. We close with a discussion on cross-asset dislocations, the recent divergence between oil, gold, and equities, the role of commodities in a world where bonds may be less defensive, and how AI tools are accelerating research, customization, and hypothesis testing across markets. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Hari Krishnan.

Rob Kaplan, former Dallas Fed president and current Goldman Sachs vice chairman, blends central-bank experience with market instincts. He reflects on steering policy through liftoff and COVID. The conversation covers limits of monetary policy, long-term structural forces like demographics and debt, shifting Treasury dynamics, regulation and private credit risks, and how AI and geopolitics reshape corporate and financial risk.

Wayne Dahl, Co-Portfolio Manager of Global Credit Strategy at Oaktree Capital, draws on a background in convertible arbitrage, structured credit, and multi-asset investing. He discusses managing sensitivities across rates, credit and equity. Topics include convertible arbitrage’s risk lessons, positioning in RMBS and short-duration credit, AI-driven dispersion, energy risks, and portfolio construction across sectors and structures.

Dean Curnutt, host and creator of a long-form finance podcast and organizer of the MacroMinds charity conference, reflects on why long conversations about market risk matter. He walks through a four-fold risk framework: economic, monetary, financial, geopolitical. The discussion highlights flash events, derivatives and convexity, mispriced credit/volatility, and plans for live events and education.

The conversation questions whether US government bonds still act as a safe insurance asset when the US itself may be a growing source of risk. It covers how AI and fast tech shifts, fractured consensus, and liquidity strains can trigger violent repricings. Geopolitical tensions, polarized institutions, trade leverage, and fiscal stress are explored as forces that could reshape global reserve behavior and bond demand.

Kris Abdelmessih, founder of an options analytics firm and author of the Moontower Substack, breaks down option pricing, volatility regimes, and trader mental math. He discusses rapid repricing of crude and silver skews, how skew alters vertical spreads and implied move probabilities, when spot moves lift volatility, and quick heuristics for converting vol to prices. He also shares his work teaching compounding to young investors.

Zach Buchwald, Chairman and CEO of Russell Investments who oversees hundreds of billions and leads its open-architecture portfolio approach. He discusses portfolio construction using best-of-breed managers. He talks about retirement’s shift from pensions to 401(k)s and how defaults, glidepaths and income solutions can help. He also covers OCIO services, manager selection, private markets, and using technology to improve investing.

Alberto Gallo, founder and CIO of Andromeda Capital Management and veteran credit investor, discusses the long effects of extended QE on markets and inequality. He explores Andromeda’s asymmetric credit strategies, the rapid rise and risks of private credit, and positioning toward hard assets, convertibles, and shorting richly priced paper.

Michael Contopoulos, Deputy CIO at Richard Bernstein Advisors and former sell‑side credit strategist, joins to discuss portfolio construction amid extreme US equity concentration. He explains underweighting mega‑caps, overweighting international markets, and applying a Merton framework to credit. He raises concerns about 40–50 year hyperscaler debt tied to AI infrastructure and the risks for lenders.