The Lumber Word

Summary Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market. Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check. The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher? Timeline 0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility 2:00 – Truck vs rail market split 4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy 6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply 8:00 – Euro supply dropping off 12:00 – Tariffs (AR6 → AR7) breakdown 15:00 – Mills still losing money 18:00 – Logistics driving everything 25:00 – Macro + economy check 27:00 – SYP gaining market share 38:00 – Futures shifting (contango → tighter) 46:00 – Just-in-time buyers vs distributors Guest Kip Fotheringham kip@telus.net   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction. The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts.  They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration trends, and policy decisions could reshape housing, labor, and the broader economy. If you want to understand where lumber demand is heading (and why), this one delivers. Timeline 00:00 – Brian Wesbury joins + macro setup  03:30 – Taxes, migration & policy shifts  08:30 – Government spending vs affordability  14:00 – Housing completions & demand outlook  16:00 – Freight spikes & supply chain issues  18:30 – Southern vs Northern demand  24:00 – The “K-shaped” economy explained  30:00 – Growth, incentives & middle class  41:00 – AI, jobs & future risks  Guest Brian S. Wesbury Chief Economist / First Trust www.ftportfolios.com       Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first! The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market, and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos, pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think. Timestamps: 0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel) 4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why nothing’s changing soon 9:00 – Freight explosion: rail surcharges + trucking volatility crushing margins 13:00 – Back-to-back trading vs. real value in a chaotic logistics market 14:00 – Pine vs. Spruce: why SYP ripped and SPF lagged hard 20:00 – Contracts vs. spot market—are they distorting price discovery? 29:00 – Freight as the real driver of the pine rally (canary in the coal mine) 33:00 – Bull market or head fake? Supply cuts vs. pipeline restock debate 35:00 – “Seller arrogance” = warning sign of a potential top 40:00 – Buyers scrambling to rebuild inventory + hot items emerging fast Takeaway: Freight is the hidden force, Pine led the charge, and now the market’s walking a tightrope between a continued grind higher… or the early signs of a summer reset.   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com  

Mike Logelin (Gulf Coast Shelter) is back and breaking down what it really looks like to build a lumber business from the ground up—team building, growing pains, and why patience matters in today’s market. Then the crew dives headfirst into one of the most dynamic setups we’ve seen in a while: tightening supply, exploding low-grade pricing, and a freight market that’s turning everything upside down. From Southern Yellow Pine ripping higher to spruce and hem-fir tightening fast, this episode connects the dots between species spreads, trucking chaos, and why the next “panic buy” moment might be closer than you think. If you want to understand what’s actually driving this market—and where the opportunity (and risk) is—this one delivers. Timestamps 0:00 – Intro + Mike Logan returns 1:00 – Building a trading team from scratch (startup realities) 5:00 – Hiring, training, and the next generation in lumber 7:45 – Market kickoff: everything moving higher 9:00 – Texas demand, low inventories, and species substitution 12:00 – Low-grade explosion (why #3 is driving the bus) 16:00 – Hem-fir + western market tightness 17:45 – Southern Yellow Pine surge + short positions 19:30 – Freight chaos: trucks disappearing, costs spiking 23:00 – Why logistics = real pricing power right now 27:00 – Regional markets tightening due to freight 29:00 – When does the “panic buying” moment hit? 30:30 – Global flows (Euro, Middle East disruption) 33:30 – Macro curveballs: rates, crypto, housing demand 36:30 – Inventory positioning: who’s exposed right now Guest Mike Logelin President-Gulf Coast Shelter mlogelin@gulfcoastshelter.com Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market just flipped. What looked slow turned into real buying, tightening supply, and rising prices—fast. This week, the crew breaks down why low-grade and studs are leading, freight is becoming a major constraint, and order files are pushing into April. Buyers who waited are now chasing, while supply cuts and steady demand raise a bigger question: are we already short of wood? If so, this move may just be getting started. Timeline 0:00 – Market flips from slow to active 2:30 – Low-grade & studs lead strength 7:00 – Prices up ~$100+ since Nov 10:00 – Order files into April 12:00 – Freight tightening supply 15:00 – Buyers now chasing 28:00 – Supply vs demand imbalance 35:00 – Early innings of the move Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run. The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species. Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle. Spotify Timeline (Chapters) 00:00 – Intro & market setup 03:00 – Freight costs jump 07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing 12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay 18:00 – Demand drivers (R&R and housing) 26:00 – Second‑half market outlook 31:00 – Buyer strategy in this market 38:00 – Futures & trade ideas 41:00 – OSB and other materials Guest Sig Thoma Sig@XMICO.com   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market. The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time? If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market. Chapters 0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market 1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs 6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring 12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing 16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics 20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength 24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying 27:00 – Lumber price outlook 30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand 33:00 – Western supply shifts 36:30 – Final market takeaways     Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled. Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean. So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move? In this episode, the guys debate: Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada Southern Pine regional price spreads What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?   Strap in. Timestamps 00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins 02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect 04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments 10:00 – Southern Pine update 18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion 24:00 – Trading range debate 36:00 – Why mills keep running 42:00 – Tariff clarification   Guest:  Kip Foteringham Independent Trader and Market Analyst  kipf@telus.net   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com    

This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market. Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium? Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think. We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain. If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters. Timestamps 00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads 06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing 10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs 17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze 21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math 27:00 – Canadian shipment declines 31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means 35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability 40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth 45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlook     Advertiser: Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Product djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Guest: Thomas Mende Thomas.Mende@binderholz.com https://www.binderholz.com/   Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Is the lumber market quiet… or is it weak? That’s the debate this week on The Lumber Word Podcast. Charles breaks down how SYP is trading — some items are moving, but others are dug in tight. Matt walks through what he’s seeing in Texas as activity starts to open up, and why low-grade SPF is creeping closer to #2 in ways that matter. Gregg zooms out to the macro, unpacking monetary supply and asking the big question: what kind of price move would hurt the most people the most?  Ashley connects the dots on what he knows is happening in real-time supply and demand. Did we leave the studio sucking our thumbs… or bulled up and ready?  Crush the follow button and find out. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com