The Lumber Word EP 157: Euro Pressure, Pine Pivots & A Flattening Curve
This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market.
Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium?
Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think.
We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain.
If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters.
- 00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads
- 06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing
- 10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs
- 17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze
- 21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math
- 27:00 – Canadian shipment declines
- 31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means
- 35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability
- 40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth
- 45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlook
Advertiser:
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Product
Guest: Thomas Mende
https://www.binderholz.com/
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com