The Munk Debates Podcast

Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School and international security expert. She analyzes mediation signals and whether talks could halt the Iran conflict. She discusses market and oil fallout, Gulf states' fears over Hormuz control, and the risk that continued war speeds Iran toward a bomb. Short, sharp takes on bargaining, deterrence, and who might blink first.

Andrew Coyne, Canadian columnist known for sharp political and foreign policy analysis, joins to unpack U.S.–Iran tensions. He discusses how Iran can 'win by not losing.' He examines the lack of clear U.S. strategy, economic and tactical pressures, risks from erratic leadership, and what Canada should prepare for in a volatile regional fallout.

Janice Gross‑Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs, gives sharp geopolitical and energy analysis. The conversation centers on the Strait of Hormuz and control of oil flows. They discuss possible US moves against Kharg Island, regional escalation risks, and how China and Russia might respond to disruptions in Iranian exports.

They unpack Iran's widening attacks on Gulf infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting global oil. They debate whether U.S. leaders misread Iran's strategy and the role of removed intelligence and gut-driven decisions. They consider energy winners, reduced support for Ukraine, and whether rivals can exploit U.S. overextension to widen the war.

Rudyard and Janice start today's show with the big surprise from this week: Iran striking its Gulf neighbours in an effort to get them to persuade Donald Trump to end this war, which was a serious miscalculation on their part. In fact, the lasting consequences from this conflict will be a rupture between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran that will be hard to repair. Meanwhile America's military success in Iran has been overshadowed by inconsistent messaging from its political leadership. What is the U.S. trying to accomplish? How will they know if they have succeeded, and when it is time to stop? And will rising gas prices and inflation affect Donald Trump's commitment to seeing this through? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to Mark Carney's messaging on this conflict. How should international law play into Canada's position? Carney indicated at Davos that Canada aims to be “both principled and pragmatic". But when it comes to the war with Iran, can we be both? Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.

Rudyard and Andrew try to make sense of Trump's decision to start a war with Iran so contrary to the premise that created the MAGA movement and opposition to America's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. How did we end up at this point? And how will this war affect the upcoming midterm elections? Andrew thinks Trump persuaded himself that strike would be easy - just like Venezuela - and thus he has no clear strategy. What is the long term goal here? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to Canada's response to this unfolding conflict, specifically Carney signalling support of the US offensive. What is the calculation going on in the background? How are his goals domestically for bolstering trade informing his foreign policy? And finally, what role should Canada have - if any - in this region-altering conflict? Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to full episodes of Munk Dialogues with Andrew Coyne. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.

Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Rudyard and Janice focus today's episode on the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Trump's negotiating team has dropped their demands on ballistic missile production and support for militia groups in the region, but the Islamist regime will not give up their nuclear program. Why is Iran unwilling to negotiate when it is so weak politically and militarily? Why would it risk getting into a fight with an opponent with whom they are so unevenly matched? And how much of their position is tied to the religious fundamentalism of its revolutionary movement? In the back half of the show Rudyard and Janice try to make sense of what is motivating Trump to pursue this strike without significant support from his base. What does Iran have to agree to so that Trump is able to back down from this fight and claim a win?

For 72-hour advanced access to the full-length editions of Munk Dialogues with Andrew Coyne consider becoming a donor to the Munk Debates for as little as $50 annually, or $1.00 per episode. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Rudyard and Andrew react to the fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariffs and the President's angry response. How will Trump being denied this authority affect upcoming CUSMA negotiations? Andrew suggests we should expect to see demands from the Trump administration that go far beyond the traditional trade grievances. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to AI and how this new technology will displace white collar jobs. What kind of policy response should we expect from the government in Ottawa? Andrew is more optimistic that this will not be as upending as some are predicting; the history of technological change suggests it will take longer than people suspect for AI to be adopted. There will be jobs lost, but will there be new jobs created? And finally, given that this is a global action program, and we cannot silo ourselves off from the United States and China, what can the Canadian government do to reduce the risk to our economy?

A tense U.S.–Iran standoff and the recent American military build-up near Iran take center stage. They explore Iran's refusal to yield on enrichment and missile demands and debate legal and practical limits of peaceful nuclear activities. The conversation questions whether brief strikes can become sustained conflict and considers global backers and political pressures shaping any U.S. response.

Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. This week, the U.S. President became a troll under a bridge, we learned AI is coming for our jobs, and America could be headed towards war with Iran. But amidst it all, a big story in Minnesota did not get the coverage it deserves: in a major retreat, the Trump administration is withdrawing significant numbers of ICE agents from the area. This story shows the importance of local people on the ground organizing and recording unseemly and unlawful behaviour for the public. Meanwhile there are musings that the President is considering pulling out of CUSMA negotiations as relations with Canada continue to decline and his behaviour gets more erratic. What will happen if he loses in the midterms? A defanged Trump is a more dangerous president than the version we are currently witnessing. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice talk about the likelihood of the Liberals calling a spring election to seize on high poll numbers, presenting their case to Canadians as needing a national mandate as they enter into tough CUSMA negotiations. Rudyard and Janice suggest, however, that there is more going on behind the scenes that is driving Canada towards a snap election.