The Munk Debates Podcast Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: at this point, what is Iran's incentive to negotiate?
Mar 25, 2026
Andrew Coyne, Canadian columnist known for sharp political and foreign policy analysis, joins to unpack U.S.–Iran tensions. He discusses how Iran can 'win by not losing.' He examines the lack of clear U.S. strategy, economic and tactical pressures, risks from erratic leadership, and what Canada should prepare for in a volatile regional fallout.
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Iran Can Win By Not Losing
- The Iran conflict has put Tehran in the driver's seat because prolonging the war inflicts economic pain on the US without decisive Iranian military defeat.
- Andrew Coyne argues Iran wins by 'not losing', using threats to the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices to weaken Trump politically and economically.
Markets Are A Rare Restraint On Trump
- Trump is stuck because war imposes finality he cannot easily bluff his way out of, limiting his ability to 'declare victory and go home'.
- Coyne notes market reactions, especially bond and oil markets, are one lever that appears to have restrained Trump.
Limited Military Options Make Escalation Risky
- Andrew Coyne highlights Trump's profound ignorance of military strategy and lack of constraint by law or principle as a major danger.
- Coyne warns tactical options like seizing key oil infrastructure or forcing open Hormuz are militarily daunting and politically risky.