Hold Your Fire!

In this discussion, guests include Ali Vaez, Crisis Group's Iran director, shedding light on the impact of Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities. Mairav Zonszein, Israel expert, reveals the prevailing sentiments among Israelis and Netanyahu's goals. Yasmine Farouk offers insights into Gulf states' views on the escalating conflict. Michael Hanna highlights Trump's shifting stance, posing questions about U.S. involvement and the potential for diplomatic resolutions amidst rising tensions. Together, they navigate the intricate landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Comfort Ero, President and CEO of Crisis Group, recently visited Mali, sharing insights on the diverging political paths of Sahelian countries. Jean-Hervé Jezequel, the Sahel director, highlights the military regimes' sovereignty claims and the growing public frustration linked to stagnating economic and security conditions. They delve into the jihadist coalition JNIM, discussing its increased attacks and the challenges of potential peace talks as military leaders prioritize operations. A complex analysis of foreign relations within the shifting dynamics of the region rounds out the conversation.

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director, about Israel’s strikes on Iran, which badly damaged nuclear and military sites and killed senior military officials. They discuss the scale of the attacks and their aims, focusing on whether they were primarily about setting back Iran’s nuclear program or weakening its regime. They also talk through how Iran might respond and what further escalation would look like. They explore how the crisis may affect nuclear diplomacy between Washington and Tehran and what options the Trump administration and Middle East actors may have to prevent the situation from spiralling further out of control.For more, check out our Iran country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Ivan Briscoe about the Trump administration’s Latin America policy, responses from the region and the future of Washington’s influence.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Latin America Program Director Renata Segura and Senior Policy Director Ivan Briscoe to look at how the Trump administration is recalibrating U.S. policy toward Latin America. They examine ideological divisions within Trump’s team between officials promoting a confrontational stance toward states like Venezuela and more pragmatic, transactional elements focused on curbing migration and drug flows. They also explore Washington’s approaches to regional hotspots, including Haiti, and assess how Latin American leaders are adjusting their strategies in reaction to shifting U.S. policies. Finally, they discuss the future of U.S. influence in a region where China is increasingly viewed as an important partner.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Latin America & Caribbean program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on DR Congo from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.In this episode, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking.For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and our DR Congo country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Max Rodenbeck and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s new ground offensive in Gaza and its contentious efforts to take over control of aid distribution amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. Richard first speaks to Mairav, Amjad and Max about “Operation Gideon’s Chariots”, Israel’s military campaign that appears aimed at fragmenting Gaza territorially while linking military operations to the management of humanitarian aid. They examine how the war is affecting Israel’s domestic politics and whether public sentiment is shifting. They also discuss how the war has affected Israel’s international standing, with European leaders voicing growing criticism of Israel’s conduct. Richard then turns to Rob to take a closer look at Israel’s aid distribution plan and its reported aim to provide only minimal levels of food after months of blockade, despite most Palestinians in Gaza already facing severe hunger.For more, check out our recent statement “Saving Gaza from Starvation” our Analyst’s Notebook entry “The Vanishing Line between Starvation and Famine in Gaza” and our Israel/Palestine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Samina Ahmed, and Pierre Prakash about the India-Pakistan ceasefire after days of clashes sparked by militant attacks in Kashmir and how to prevent the next crisis from spiralling out of control.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi, South Asia Project Director Samina Ahmed, and Asia Program Director Pierre Prakash to discuss the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which followed days of intense clashes between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Richard first speaks with Praveen about the mood in India following the ceasefire and its investigation into the late-April attack in India-administered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists – an assault India blames on Pakistan-sponsored militants and which triggered last week’s brief war. With Samina, they unpack the view from Pakistan, the toll the fighting took across the country, and safeguards the two sides can put in place to prevent future crises from escalating. Finally, Richard talks with Pierre about what diplomacy over Kashmir and tensions between India and Pakistan might entail and why South Asia deserves greater outside attention.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our India-Pakistan (Kashmir) page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Yasmine Farouk, Ali Vaez, and Michael Wahid Hanna, experts at Crisis Group, dive into Trump’s anticipated Gulf trip. They discuss the significant interplay of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and regional security, highlighting Iran's urgent need for a deal amidst crises. The conversation spans the humanitarian disaster in Gaza and its international implications, Saudi Arabia's pivotal role in U.S. policy, and the potential for normalization with Israel. Their insights illuminate the complex geopolitical dynamics shaping the Middle East today.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreeing not to pursue membership in NATO. They examine Ukraine and its European backers’ counterproposal and the U.S. response, and Moscow’s position. They also explore Washington’s negotiating tactics, including its threat to withdraw from the talks if an agreement isn’t reached soon, and the minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine. Finally, they discuss the likelihood of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire given Putin’s belief he has the battlefield advantage, and whether Moscow’s position on negotiations to end the war has shifted.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our recent statement “Deal or No Deal, a Basis for Talks about Peace in Ukraine” and our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Richard Horsey, a senior analyst and Myanmar expert at the International Crisis Group, delves into the aftermath of a devastating earthquake in Myanmar. He discusses the significant challenges faced by relief efforts, including the impact of U.S. aid cuts and the military's absence from rescue operations. The conversation highlights China’s rapid response and its geopolitical implications, the potential political risks for military leader Min Aung Hlaing, and the role of ethnic armed groups amidst ongoing conflict. Horsey also explores ASEAN's limited yet constructive role in the crisis.