Hold Your Fire! Will Myanmar’s Devastating Earthquake Impact its Civil War?
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Apr 4, 2025 Richard Horsey, a senior analyst and Myanmar expert at the International Crisis Group, delves into the aftermath of a devastating earthquake in Myanmar. He discusses the significant challenges faced by relief efforts, including the impact of U.S. aid cuts and the military's absence from rescue operations. The conversation highlights China’s rapid response and its geopolitical implications, the potential political risks for military leader Min Aung Hlaing, and the role of ethnic armed groups amidst ongoing conflict. Horsey also explores ASEAN's limited yet constructive role in the crisis.
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Chaos Rooted In Preexisting Policies
- The junta's prior obstructive policies and lack of updated contingency plans have produced a chaotic response.
- Horsey argues the regime continues pre-earthquake practices rather than adapting to deliver aid effectively.
Military Largely Absent From Rescues
- Myanmar military was largely absent from search-and-rescue; local volunteers and foreign teams led rescues.
- Horsey links this absence to overstretch on front lines and deep community revulsion toward the army.
Blockades Hamper Aid To Opposition Areas
- Delivering aid into areas outside junta control will be extremely difficult due to blockades and the military’s strategic intent.
- Horsey notes relief into opposition-held zones would undermine the regime's blockade strategy.