Lowy Institute

In March 2019, Islamic State officially lost its caliphate. The last remaining sliver of territory under its control was overtaken by Coalition forces, and US President Donald Trump declared the militant group “100% defeated”. Yet Islamic State remains defiant. Its reclusive leader has made two public pronouncements encouraging his followers since the fall of the caliphate. It retains affiliate networks around the world, and in the wake of its defeat, it committed one of the largest terrorist attacks ever – the Easter Bombings in Colombo, Sri Lanka. But what does Islamic State mean without its caliphate, and in what ways does the organisation still pose a global threat? How are we to deal with the thousands of supporters, mostly women, who remain held with their children in camps run by Syrian Democratic Forces? How has Islamic State managed to maintain its presence in Asia while it has lost its caliphate? Has Asia become a new growth area for the group after its decline in the Middle East? Daniel Flitton, the Managing Editor of the Lowy Institute's digital magazine, The Interpreter, discussed these questions and more with Lowy Institute Research Fellow Lydia Khalil, following her latest analysis on the future of Islamic State.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What made America a great power? What is Trump doing to weaken America on the global stage, and what must the US do to revive its global leadership after the Trump presidency?Distinguished American diplomat Nicholas Burns, the Lowy Institute’s 2019 Rothschild & Co Distinguished International Fellow, gave a speech at the National Gallery of Victoria in MelbourneNicholas Burns is a Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and served for 27 years in the US Foreign Service. Ambassador Burns was Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, US Ambassador to NATO for President George W Bush and to Greece for President Bill Clinton, and State Department spokesman for Secretaries Warren Christopher and Madeleine Albright.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former US Ambassador to NATO Nicholas Burns talks about the instability of US foreign policy under Trump and how to recover from it, the significance of US alliances in great power competition with China, and also why he rejects former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ pointed criticism of Senator Joe Biden’s foreign policy record.Ambassador Burns is the 2019 Rothschild Distinguished International Fellow at the Lowy Institute. He is one of the US’s most eminent former diplomats, having served under Republican and Democrat administrations in a 27 year career in the foreign service. He was US Ambassador to NATO and later Under Secretary for Political Affairs, the State Department’s third-ranking official. He is now a Professor of Diplomatic Practice and International Relations at Harvard University; and has more recently joined Senator Joe Biden’s campaign as foreign affairs advisor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On October 10, the Lowy Institute hosted Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte for a public address. Mr Rutte spoke about the future of the global rules-based order. Following his speech the Institute’s Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove conducted a Q&A session with Mr Rutte.Described by the BBC as a “modest but steely liberal”, Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte is an important figure in European politics. He has been at the centre of Europe’s Brexit negotiations with the UK, has led the Netherlands’ response to the Malaysia Airlines MH-17 tragedy, in which 193 Dutch citizens and 27 Australians lost their lives, and he has witnessed and fought the rise of populist parties in Dutch elections. He has served as Prime Minister since 2010.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How should the US and Australia plan for a future of both strategic competition and cooperation with China? How do we get the balance between them right? The distinguished American diplomat Nicholas Burns, the Lowy Institute’s 2019 Rothschild & Co Distinguished International Fellow, addressed these questions in the 2019 Owen Harries Lecture. The annual Owen Harries Lecture honours the enormous contribution Mr Harries, a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute, has made to the international policy debate in Australia.Nicholas Burns is a Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and served for 27 years in the US Foreign Service. Ambassador Burns was Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, US Ambassador to NATO for President George W Bush and to Greece for President Bill Clinton, and State Department spokesman for Secretaries Warren Christopher and Madeleine Albright.The Lowy Institute acknowledges the generous support of Rothschild & Co for the Fellowship.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The next phase of China's massive Belt and Road Initiative is shifting emphasis after foreign criticism about debt-trap diplomacy, and concerns about corruption, local impacts and environmental issues. Less talk about grand infrastructure projects like ports and rail; more about ‘soft infrastructure’ like special economic zones and people to people exchanges. The new BRI, China says, will be ‘lean, clean and green'. But how much in the BRI has really changed, and is there any harm in the West embracing China’s vision for an interconnected world? Episode 11 of the Lowy Institute’s podcast takes a look at the second phase of the BRI, from two perspectives. Chinese foreign policy expert and former Chinese diplomat to the EU, Professor Wang Yiwei outlines China's perspective; and the US-based, French BRI expert Nadège Rolland (at 15:30) takes a more critical view. Rules Based Audio is hosted by Kelsey Munro and powered by the Lowy Institute.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. The relationship between Australia’s traditional ally, the United States, and its largest trading partner, China, continues its precipitous decline. Four out of Australia’s top five trading partners are embroiled in trade wars, and a global economic slowdown is underway. At the same time, Beijing’s deepening embrace of authoritarianism and expanding global ambitions continue to rattle Australia’s regional allies and partners.As our political leaders grapple with new and daunting foreign policy challenges, what do Australians think about the world? The Lowy Institute Poll has surveyed Australians on their views for the past 15 years. In the span of a generation, the Poll has uncovered striking changes in public opinion about Australia’s most important neighbours and partners as well as the challenges to national security and prosperity.What is driving these changing views? And how should our political leaders respond?The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion with Natasha Kassam, Director of the 2019 Lowy Institute Poll; Greg Sheridan, foreign editor for The Australian; Dr Danielle Chubb, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Deakin University, and David Olsson, former Managing Partner of international law firm King & Wood Mallesons; moderated by Daniel Flitton, Managing Editor of the Lowy Institute’s international magazine, The Interpreter.This event was presented by Lowy Institute at the NGV.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Washington Post Beijing bureau chief and author Anna Fifield talks with host Kelsey Munro about life and politics in North Korea today. Kim Jong-un has permitted strategic changes to the economy of the isolated country, even as he keeps an iron grip on politics and citizens' freedoms. These days, for the wealthy urban dwellers in Pyongyang, there are gleaming apartment towers, yoga classes and craft beer bars - even if they don't have a reliable electricity supply. Fifield argues the dictator’s grandson, who few thought would last a year in the job, has surprisingly proved a ruthless, adept and confident leader and diplomat, forcing China and the US to the table without giving up anything, including his nukes. Anna Fifield is the author of the new book ‘The Great Successor: The Secret Rise and Rule of Kim Jong-un’. She has been to North Korea over a dozen times, and interviewed hundreds of escapees from the country, including tracking down members of the Kim family and former inner circle living in exile. She was formerly the Post's bureau chief in Tokyo from 2014 to 2018, covering Japan and the Koreas.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Pacific Islands region has vaulted back to the centre of Australian foreign policy thinking. Prime Minister Morrison has positioned Australia’s “step up” in the region as his signature foreign-policy initiative. Other governments have responded with their own “redial”, “pivot”, “uplift”, and “elevation” plans.Much of this reaction is being driven by China’s rise, with analysts fearing China will try to leverage its influence – be it debt, diplomacy, or trade – to achieve strategic outcomes, including setting up a military base. Great power competition has returned to the Pacific.Foreign aid is often the first tool used by nations to engage in this vulnerable region. Each year, more than US$2 billion in foreign aid is invested in the Pacific from more than 60 donors. But aid is often opaque and hard to trace, lacks detail, and is difficult to access. The Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map fills this gap, providing an analytical too that collates and analyses data on all aid projects in the Pacific.This event launched the second-year update of the map, which incorporates new data and new functionality, and presented new analysis of Chinese debt diplomacy and its impact on debt sustainability in the Pacific.Lowy Institute researchers discussed what’s new in the Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map, and what it can tell us about the broader geopolitical developments playing out in Australia’s immediate region.Jonathan Pryke is Director of the Lowy Institute Pacific Islands Program. Alexandre Dayant is a Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute Pacific Islands Program, and lead researcher of the Pacific Aid Map. Roland Rajah is Director of the Lowy Institute International Economy Program. The discussion was moderated by Lowy Institute Research Fellow Natasha Kassam.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The news today is dominated by trade issues in a way not seen since perhaps the clash between the United States and Japan in the 1980s. The headlines point to a trade war between the United States and China, and strained trade relations between South Korea and Japan. The trading system has not delivered new multilateral agreements during the last five years. The WTO dispute-settlement system appears to be breaking down. It appears to be getting easier to depart from international agreements. What is the current status of these issues, how do they affect the operations of the WTO, and what (if any) is the good news? What can be achieved by June 2020, when the next formal WTO ministerial meeting will be held? What is the long-term picture for multilateralism? Are regional arrangements going to be the new architecture of the trading system? Is the pendulum swinging permanently away from global value chains?The Lowy Institute hosted Alan Wolff, Deputy Director-General of the WTO, for a discussion of the risks and opportunities facing world trade at this decisive moment.Mr Wolff became WTO Deputy Director-General in October 2017, after a long career in international trade, including as chief trade lawyer of the US executive branch, Chairman of the National Foreign Trade Council, as a senior US trade negotiator, and private law practitioner. He has served and advised both Republican and Democratic administrations in the US.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.