Lowy Institute

Rules Based Audio takes a look at China's interests, influence and intentions in the Pacific.Reports of a planned Chinese naval base in Vanuatu in 2018 helped focus policy makers’ attention on China’s strategic intentions and economic influence in the island nations of the south Pacific. But in many ways, the debate in Australia and the US lagged far behind the reality on the ground. These days the Chinese presence – from state owned enterprises, infrastructure projects, commercial ventures and a significant new wave of immigration – is, according to the director of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands program Jonathan Pryke, everywhere in these tiny island nations. Jono talks us through the many dimensions of China in the Pacific. But first, a case study: Vanuatu is reaping over $100 million a year from the sale of passports, mostly to Chinese nationals; while there has been a big step up in Chinese loans and direct investment. But when earlier this year, Vanuatu-based journalist Dan McGarry reported on the secret dawn arrest of six Chinese nationals – by local police in the presence of Chinese security officials – who were then deported without charge to China, he apparently crossed a line for the island nation’s government. Mr McGarry has been refused re-entry to Vanuatu. I spoke to Mr McGarry about the ways the authoritarian giant’s influence is playing out in the tiny democratic nation of 280,000. Jonathan Pryke is the director of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands program and Mr McGarry is the media director of the Vanuatu Daily Post. Rules Based Audio is a half-hour, fortnightly podcast covering stories from the cracks and faultlines in the global order, hosted by Kelsey Munro and powered by the Lowy Institute.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia faces no more difficult international challenge than managing its relationship with the People’s Republic of China, our largest trading partner and a peer competitor of our great ally the United States.Former prime minister Tony Abbott gave an address on China, followed by a Q&A session chaired by Dr Michael Fullilove, Executive Director of the Lowy Institute.The Hon. Tony Abbott was the 28th Prime Minister of Australia, holding that office from 2013 to 2015. Before being elected prime minister, Mr Abbott served as the leader of the opposition, a minister in the Howard government, and the member for Warringah.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hyperpartisan and foreign-state sponsored disinformation targeted at voters through social media is undermining democracy and interfering with elections from the US to India, from Indonesia to Taiwan. Authoritarian adversaries, partisan domestic actors, and weak democratic governments are using the platforms and the extensive data they hold on individuals to manipulate voters and spread false narratives. The implications for the health of democracies everywhere are troubling. And with the US Presidential election looming in 2020, many argue that not enough is being done to halt the spread of deliberately false and misleading information. How can democracies fight back? Kelsey Munro, host of the Lowy Institute's Rules Based Audio podcast, together with Katherine Mansted from the ANU’s National Security College and Harvard’s Belfer Center, and Lowy Institute Southeast Asia Project Director Ben Bland, had a thought-provoking discussion on democracy in the disinformation age. Katherine Mansted is a Senior Adviser at the ANU National Security College and a Nonresident fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center. Her research and policy analysis focuses on emerging technologies, cybersecurity, and international relations. Her publications cover information warfare, cyber-enabled foreign interference, and internet privacy. Katherine previously practiced law and served as a ministerial adviser in the Australian government. Ben Bland is the director of the Southeast Asia project at the Lowy Institute. Ben’s personal research interests span politics, economics, and diplomacy across Southeast Asia, with a particular focus on Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, as well as China’s growing role in the region. Ben is an award-winning former foreign correspondent for the Financial Times, with postings in Hanoi, Hong Kong, and Jakarta.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Lowy Institute hosted the Aus–PNG Network Melbourne social evening at the State Library of Victoria. Opening remarks for the evening were delivered by Mr Bruce Davis, Australian High Commissioner to PNG.Lowy Institute Research Fellow Shane McLeod chaired a panel discussion, 'PNG-Australia Education Links: Empowering girls and women in science and technology'.The panel included: Mary Mulcahy (AUS), Director, Education and Outreach for CSIROEdea Bouraga (PNG), Mechanical Engineer and current chair of Women in Engineering.Sarah Chapman (AUS), Head of Science, Townsville State High School. Nylah Torova (PNG), PNG student at Rockhampton Girls Grammar School. Mr Sakias Tameo, PNG Deputy High Commissioner to Australia, gave closing remarks. The Aus–PNG Network is a Lowy Institute project aimed at strengthening people-to-people links between Australia and Papua New Guinea. The Lowy Institute acknowledges the ongoing support of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for the Aus–PNG Network.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Since 2012 several hundred Australians have travelled to Syria and Iraq to undertake jihad with Islamic State, al-Qaeda or other radical Islamist groups. Dozens more supported them financially or in the planning of attacks. There are many preconceptions about the types of people in Australia attracted to jihad, but there has been little data publicly available on which to base these assumptions. For the first time, Lowy Institute Fellow Rodger Shanahan has collected and analysed data on 173 individuals known to have joined radical Islamist terrorist organisations or who have been charged with terrorism offences. This new analysis provides comprehensive information on the backgrounds of Australians who have undertaken jihad, which will enhance our understanding of the typologies and motivations of those who are likely to be attracted to similar messaging in the future.Rodger Shanahan had a conversation with Lowy Institute Research Fellow Kelsey Munro to discuss this unique analysis of the Australian terrorist scene.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“The fog of Australian politics on climate change has obscured a fateful reality: Australia has the potential to be an economic superpower of the future post-carbon world,” argues Dr Ross Garnaut in his new book Superpower: Australia’s low-carbon opportunity. The Lowy Institute hosted a conversation between Dr Garnaut and Roland Rajah, Director of the Lowy Institute International Economy Program, about the role Australia can play in meeting this critical global challenge. Ross Garnaut is Professorial Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Melbourne. In 2008, he produced the Garnaut Climate Change Review for the Australian government. He is the author of many books, including the bestselling Dog Days (2013).See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The mass commercialisation of artificial intelligence, machine learning technologies and automation, combined with outsourcing to lower income countries is about to cause massive upheavals and hundreds of millions of job losses in developed economies, according to my guest this episode of Rules Based Audio, economist and globalisation expert Professor Richard Baldwin. He warns that the next phase of globalisation is different, because of the speed and scale of the likely changes, and the expected impact on the middle classes in rich countries. Professionals who thought their jobs were safe are now directly in the firing line. There’s likely to be earth-shaking political consequences.It sounds pretty grim for the developed economies, but Professor Baldwin says he’s an optimist about where this will get us to in the future – if we can survive the socio-political earthquakes in the meanwhile. Richard Baldwin is a professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva; and the author of several books on globalisation, trade and European integration. In this episode of Rules Based Audio, we discuss his latest book, 'The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics and the Future of Work'.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen has written a provocative new book, 'Our Very Own Brexit', arguing that the political conditions which created Brexit also exist in Australia. But forget what you have read about populism and the rise of right-wing xenophobia. What Australia has in common with Britain and other Western democracies is something we rarely talk about: the steady decline of our big political parties. The ‘hollowed out’ state of contemporary politics could lead one of our political parties to exploit an issue that ties Australia to Asia and which will determine our future security: immigration.The Lowy Institute hosted an in-conversation event with Sam and award-winning journalist George Megalogenis to mark the launch of 'Our Very Own Brexit'.Sam Roggeveen is Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program. Sam writes for newspapers, magazines, and websites around the world about Australian politics, foreign policy, and defence policy. He is the founding editor of the Lowy Institute’s digital magazine, 'The Interpreter'.This event was presented by Lowy Institute at the NGV.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the United Kingdom faces a divisive but potentially decisive election framed around Brexit, the European Union is contemplating a future without the UK. If British voters back Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit plan, what sort of future relationship will the EU look to build with the UK? What will be the impact on Ireland and Northern Ireland? And how will Brexit affect Australia's ties with the EU? If the opposition triumphs, what are the chances that Brexit could be reversed and the UK's relationship with the EU reset? Ben Bland, the Director of the Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia Project, had a conversation with Pat Cox, former European Parliament President, on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and its implications for the Union, the UK, and Ireland. Pat Cox served three terms in the European Parliament, and was President of the Parliament from 2002 to 2004. Prior to entering the European Parliament, he served in Ireland’s national parliament and worked in academia and the media. He is currently President of the Jean Monnet Foundation for Europe.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr Rodger Shanahan unpacks the implications of the US withdrawal from Syria and the death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October 2019 in Syria. Are the two events linked? US President Trump’s decision to withdraw US forces from northeast Syria, abandoning the Kurds who fought with the US against Islamic State, allowed Turkey to invade and gave what Dr Shanahan says was “a gift” to Moscow and Damascus. He also discusses what the death of al-Baghdadi means for the future of the Islamic State terrorist group and other militant Islamist groups in the region; and whether the timing and proximity of the two events might be more more than coincidence. Dr Rodger Shanahan is a Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute specialising in Middle East security and terrorism studies. A former army officer, he had extensive service within the Parachute Battalion Group (PBG) and has had operational service with the UN in South Lebanon and Syria, with the PBG in East Timor, in Beirut during the 2006 war, and in Afghanistan. He was the former director of the Army's Land Warfare Studies Centre, and has also been posted to the Australian Embassies in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Dr Shanahan has a PhD in Arab and Islamic Studies from the University of Sydney.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.