Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governors Editor at the Cook Political Report, breaks down three unexpectedly tight Republican primaries in the Deep South. She walks through Alabama and Kentucky contests, plus Bill Cassidy’s scramble in Louisiana after his impeachment vote. The conversation also touches on campaign spending, endorsements, ground game, and a peek at dueling California gubernatorial ads.

Brian Howey, Indiana political journalist and State Affairs columnist, explains the Hoosier revolt over a mid-decade redistricting push. He walks through seven high-stakes primary contests, dark-money spending, and the mechanics of crossover voting. The conversation also compares Florida’s Republican-friendly map and explores new hyper-targeted political ad strategies.

Tim Gagline, vice president at Focus on the Family and author focused on faith and family renewal. He discusses declines in marriage and fertility, the 'marriageable' man problem, and how faith and policy can encourage family formation. Short takes also cover political fallout from the Iran war, midterm outlooks, and clever attack ads shaping campaigns.

Josh Kraushaar, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider and political analyst, discusses shifting American attitudes toward Israel since October 7. He covers rising antisemitism on campuses and social media, how criticism crosses into antisemitism, divides between American Jewish and Israeli views, and the partisan realignment testing bipartisan support for Israel.

Henry's in Hungary this week, calling in from Budapest to detail the mood around the Danube ahead of an election that's drawing unprecedented attention from the rest of the West. Tune in to get up to speed on Viktor Orbán, the longtime leader of the governing Fidesz Party, and his frenzied race against Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz member who now leads the suddenly invigorated Tisza Party.

Chaz Nuttycombe, founder of State Navigate, builds granular election and state legislature analysis. He explains district-level forecasts, early-vote modeling, polling design, and county turnout signals. The conversation digs into Virginia coverage, expansion plans, and how local ads and primary dynamics play out in Kentucky.

Conversation about a new right-leaning election data site and why its creators built detailed maps, ranked race ratings, and live roundups. Discussion of Trump's falling approval and what that dip might mean for midterm Senate and House risks. Breakdown of three notable Democratic ads and how they aim to influence voters.

Russ Walker, Vice President for Policy at the Joseph Rainey Center and senior advisor at the James Madison Institute, offers policy analysis and polling insights. He discusses shifting views on the American Dream and generational affordability gaps. They cover public attitudes toward immigration enforcement, AI adoption and regulation, and concerns about data centers and energy.

In one-party states, turnover is rare. So when Dick Durbin gives up the Senate seat he's held since 1997, we'd expect some movement. And, wow oh wow, are ambitious Illinis on the move! To introduce us to the ensemble casts crowding up key races, Henry sits down with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey. Henry also explains the Iron Law of Primaries and digs further into early findings on public attitudes about the war in Iran. Plus, we have competing ads from the Illinois Senate race, along with an attack ad against Thomas Massie that indicates midterm party priorities. (And we're flagging an innovative ad featuring Bobby Rush that uses artificial intelligence to boost his endorsement of Jesse Jackson Jr.)

The first primaries for the 2026 midterms came last week, and Henry's flying solo to survey the results. Tune in for analysis on James Talarico's victory over TX-30 Rep. Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic Senate nomination; incumbent John Cornyn's top-finish against Ken Paxton in the runoff-bound Republican bid; House seats in the Lone Star State and North Carolina; along with thoughts on President Trump's recent approval ratings bump and polling on condition-based sentiments about the sudden onset of war in the Middle East. Plus, this week's dueling ads provide a contrast in style and sensibility that overshadows even the partisan divide.