BMO Equity Research IN Tune

Joel Jackson, Managing Director covering chemicals, fertilizers and ag equipment, explains how the Iran conflict is rattling fertilizer supply chains. They discuss soaring nitrogen and sulphur prices. Conversation covers limited spare capacity, China’s role, seasonal inventory risks, mining vulnerabilities to sulfur shortages, and how higher ammonia feeds into explosives and costs.

Randy Ollenberger, Oil and Gas Analyst at BMO, breaks down supply disruptions, tanker flows and refined product bottlenecks. Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO, outlines how higher oil feeds inflation, trims growth and pressures central bank decisions. They discuss whether markets see a temporary shock or lasting geopolitical risk, impacts on LNG and Europe, and why inventories and product spreads matter for volatility.

Commodity prices are reacting in a major way to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Please join our analysts, Randy Ollenberger, John McNulty, Joel Jackson, Helen Amos and George Heppel for a group conference call where we discuss our latest thoughts for near- and medium-term impacts on energy, metals, fertilizers, and chemicals markets. ⁠Click here for transcript.⁠ To access our full disclosures, please visit: ⁠https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures⁠

On March 9th, we sat down with Doug Porter and Randy Ollenberger to examine the market and economic implications of the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy shock. The conversation traces recent geopolitical developments, reactions across energy commodities and equities, and risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Doug Porter assesses inflation, growth, and central bank implications for Canada and the U.S., while Randy Ollenberger outlines scenarios keeping oil above $100 or pulling it back lower. Click here for transcript To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

In this special Metal Matters podcast, BMO Commodities Analyst Helen Amos is joined by Ro Dhawan, President and CEO of the ICMM to discuss how the role of sustainable mining is shifting in a world where mining and critical minerals has been thrust into the foreground of global geopolitics. They discuss the new Consolidated Mining Standard which marks a major turning point in harmonising standards across the industry, as well as progress made in tailings management,  gender-based violence, and the urgency around improving safety performance. Ro suggests that the increase in government participation and M&A in mining could bring opportunities for sustainability too. Click⁠ here⁠ for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: ⁠https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, provides keen insights into global economic dynamics. He discusses the imminent interest rate cuts and their implications for inflation. Porter reveals how emerging markets will drive metals demand and assesses the potential impact of AI on economic growth. He also evaluates de-dollarization, noting the dollar's lasting dominance despite challenges. Additionally, he highlights the complexities of trade policies and their unexpected winners and losers, particularly for Canada.

In this insightful discussion, Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO, shares his perspectives on GDP and inflation trends in the U.S. and Canada. Ernie Tedeschi, Yale’s Director of Economics, contrasts robust GDP growth with concerns about labor market dynamics and rising tariffs. Dan Phillips, BMO’s CIO, emphasizes a tactical investment approach amid evolving market risks, including the impact of AI and automation. The trio also explores the resilience of the Canadian economy and why government shutdowns typically leave markets unfazed.

This lively discussion dives into copper's surge back to $10k and the surprising resilience of iron ore. The impact of U.S. tariffs and the stockpiling rush are examined, shedding light on how supply disruptions have tightened markets. The hosts also explore the role of a weakening dollar and global investment challenges in mining. With an eye on China’s anti-involution policies, they ponder whether we’re on the brink of a new mining upcycle, fueled by governmental stockpiling and emerging market dynamics.

Helen Amos, a macro commodity analyst, and Matt Murphy, a base metals equity analyst, delve into the potential impact of a 50% U.S. tariff on copper. They discuss how this could affect global pricing dynamics and supply chains, with Helen predicting shifts in the COMEX-LME spread. Matt highlights which U.S. miners might benefit from a refining growth and the challenges of U.S. smelting capacity. The conversation also touches on the slow pace of building refining infrastructure and the implications for both domestic and international markets.

Scott Bryson, Vice Chair of BMO Wealth Management, and Michael Gregory, Deputy Chief Economist at BMO Financial Group, dive into Canada’s political and economic shifts after Mark Carney’s election as Prime Minister. They discuss how global trade dynamics and tariffs have shaped Canadian voter sentiment. The duo highlights Carney's ambitious vision for economic growth and energy supremacy, emphasizing the importance of streamlined infrastructure projects. They also outline the potential impacts of new policies on GDP growth and the Canadian oil and gas sector, marking a path toward energy leadership.