BMO Equity Research IN Tune Metal Matters: Delving Into the Macro
Nov 21, 2025
Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, provides keen insights into global economic dynamics. He discusses the imminent interest rate cuts and their implications for inflation. Porter reveals how emerging markets will drive metals demand and assesses the potential impact of AI on economic growth. He also evaluates de-dollarization, noting the dollar's lasting dominance despite challenges. Additionally, he highlights the complexities of trade policies and their unexpected winners and losers, particularly for Canada.
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Tariffs Haven't Fully Hit US Inflation
- Porter thinks tariff pass-through to US consumers has been limited and further pass-through depends on consumer strength.
- He expects inflation to stay sticky but modestly lower next year, not spike from tariffs.
Real Rates Likely To Stay Mildly Positive
- Porter expects mildly positive real rates in the US rather than a return to negative real rates.
- He sees terminal policy around modestly positive real rates, roughly a half percent above inflation.
Tariffs Are Filling A Big Fiscal Hole
- US debt concerns have coalesced due to recent fiscal moves and higher debt-to-GDP near 100%.
- Porter notes tariff revenue (~$400bn/year) is materially reducing deficits even if tariffs are economically undesirable.