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The news of the FBI search on Mar-a-Lago, the most aggressive law enforcement action ever taken against a former American president, broke last night in the most understated way imaginable.Peter Schorsch of FlordiaPolitics.com just tweeted it out: “Scoop — The Federal Bureau of Investigation @FBI today executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, two sources confirm to @Fla_Pol.” (Not even an all caps “SCOOP!”)In an age where bragging about reportorial prowess is normal, Schorsch was charmingly humble: “Not sure what the search warrant was about. TBH, I’m not a strong enough reporter to hunt this down, but it’s real.”It was indeed real, as Donald Trump confirmed within the hour. “[M]y beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,” the former president said in a lengthy statement. “They even broke into my safe!”Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

We know readers love tick-tocks, those now-it-can-be-told accounts of what really went on that appear soon after a bill is safely passed. This morning, there are several good ones about how the Inflation Reduction Act made it through the Senate. Today's Playbook, written edition, chopped them up, rearranged them, added our own reporting, and, in what we hope is a recurring feature, present Playbook’s master narrative of how it all went down. But two pivotal dates jump out: July 15 and July 18.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

New Jobs Report — The July unemployment report drops at 8:30 a.m. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, and economists are predicting a gain of 250,000 jobs for July. Yesterday, the White House called the anticipated drop an expected “transition” from “record-high-breaking jobs numbers” to “stable and steady growth.”  Sinema on Board — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer reached a deal last night to secure her vote for the reconciliation bill. In the end, she wasn’t hard to get. Democrats wanted to raise $14 billion by narrowing the carried interest loophole. Sinema wanted the provision removed. Instead, Burgess Everett and Marianne Levine report, Democrats added “a new 1 percent excise tax on stock buybacks that will bring in $73 billion, far more than the $14 billion raised by the carried interest provision, according to a Democrat familiar with the deal.”What else she got: “The deal with Sinema also adds roughly $5 billion in drought resiliency to the bill, according to another person familiar, and changes portions of the corporate minimum tax structure to remove accelerated depreciation of investments from the agreement. That depreciation-related change will cost about $40 billion. All told, the agreement with Sinema is expected to increase the bill’s original $300 billion deficit reduction figure.”Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Biden's big bill: Two GOP strategists on how to kill itRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

As the Senate moves onto the Inflation Reduction Act, bipartisanship is not in the cards. The two biggest obstacles remaining before Majority Leader Chuck Schumer can celebrate the best end of summer Labor Day party of his life are Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth McDonough. The latest reporting suggests that Sinema is eyeing three changes:— Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine scooped yesterday that Sinema wanted to (1) nix the carried interest loophole pay-for, which represents less than 2% of the financing for the bill, and (2) add some $5 billion in drought resiliency funding.— WaPo’s Tony Romm and Jeff Stein add that Sinema also seems to be (3) questioning the bill’s corporate minimum tax, an idea she seemed to endorse last year, though “discussions are fluid” and her “exact requests are unclear.” Bloomberg and Axios also have similar stories with an equally cloudy picture of what exactly she wants to do on the corporate minimum tax. But everyone seems to agree she’s talking to a lot of Arizona business interests about the bill’s tax provisions.Meanwhile, Caitlin Emma and Marianne Levine report that there are at least four policies in the reconciliation bill that their sources believe could be vulnerable to a Byrd Rule challenge before MacDonough, who, as Senate Parliamentarian, is the second most powerful person in Washington (after Sinema) for the next week or so.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

What a night. Millions of voters took to the polls yesterday, and the takeaways are many: the blocked political return of a scandal-plagued former governor, mixed results (once again) for former President Donald Trump, and primary defeats for two incumbent members of Congress seeking reelection.But the most surprising vote — and possibly most wide-reaching — wasn’t a race between two candidates; it came instead on one of the most divisive issues in American life: abortion rights. In Kansas ... It marked the first time since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade that voters had a chance to directly weigh in on abortion rights.By a stunning, roughly 20-point margin, Kansas voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would have given state lawmakers the chance to either further restrict or ban abortions in the state. Turnout swelled — “approaching what’s typical for a fall election for governor,” per the AP — and the “no” vote did well not just in Democratic strongholds, but in conservative and rural areas, outperforming Joe Biden's 2020 vote share there.  Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to land in Taiwan today for a visit that the entire U.S. national security leadership advised her not to take. Three developments overnight:— Asia stocks tanked: “Stocks across Asia dropped on Tuesday morning, as investors prepared for a potential economic fallout” from Pelosi’s trip, per the FT.— Chinese planes buzz median line: “China is ratcheting up military activity around Taiwan ahead of [Pelosi’s visit]. Several Chinese fighter jets flew close to the median line that divides the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday morning, according to a Taiwanese official briefed on the developments, in a reminder to Taipei that Beijing’s air force could reach the island in a matter of minutes. Military units across the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theatre Command, which is in charge of the South China Sea and some Taiwan-related missions, have entered a status of high alert, according to military officials in two neighbouring countries,” per the FT.— U.S. Navy deploys four warships east of Taiwan: “‘While they are able to respond to any eventuality, these are normal, routine deployments,’ [a U.S. Naval] official said, who spoke on the condition of anonymity,” reports Reuters.NYT’s Tom Friedman lays out an impassioned case against the trip: “Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless.” His big argument, backed up with what seems like a significant scoop, is that Joe Biden has successfully restrained China from aiding Russia in its war with Ukraine, and Pelosi’s trip risks triggering confrontations with both countries:Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

This week, the bill that launched a whole lot of Joe Manchin Sunday show hits will be front and center as Democrats get ready to defend the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” (aka the reconciliation bill) as it is parsed by the Senate parliamentarian and gets teed up for a floor vote. But there are still a couple of important hurdles left to clear.And last week, Senate Republicans blocked the passage of the PACT Act, which would expand health care access to veterans exposed to burn pits. Their opposition has spurred swift and widespread backlash.There are a number of significant races being decided this week — including some marquee primaries for Senate and House. Politico's Natalie Allison explains what you should be paying attention to in Arizona and Missouri. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

 It’s Day 2 of the Manchin-Schumer deal that vastly expanded Biden’s shrunken legislative ambitions, boosted the morale of Democrats in difficult races and infuriated Congressional Republicans. The White House is ending a week they had long been dreading because of the string of bad economic data they (correctly) anticipated, on a surprisingly high note.Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Legalizing the trip: One ‘shroom advocate’s playbookRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Last summer, Sen. Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer signed a one-page agreement outlining the West Virginia Democrat’s red lines for a reconciliation bill.The date on that agreement? July 28, 2021.Today is July 28, 2022.One year later to the day, we’ve finally reached the moment many thought would never come: A Manchin-approved reconciliation bill — one he and Schumer brokered in secret after many thought any hope of a sweeping deal was dead — is on the Senate’s doorstep, and it includes provisions for climate change, tax hikes on corporations and health care subsidies.

When Donald Trump arrived in Washington five-plus years ago and delivered his inaugural address, he spoke of “American carnage” and used dark language (“rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones,” “disrepair and decay,” etc.) in previewing his first term as president.But that vision was positively sunny compared to the dark-as-Vantablack outlook he shared Tuesday at the America First Agenda Summit — the clearest articulation yet of his likely 2024 message.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.