The Playbook Podcast

It’s time to adjust your expectations for November.For weeks, pundits have homed in on the special election in New York’s 19th Congressional District as a national bellwether. The seat is a true toss-up — one of those rare districts won by Barack Obama in 2012, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 — and the national parties responded appropriately, sending in huge sums of money and organizational resources to win it. The race would offer a trial run of the parties’ general election messages. Democrat Pat Ryan's “ads hammered on the need to elect a representative who would fight for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s June decision undoing Roe v. Wade,” writes Bill Mahoney, while Republican Marc Molinaro's campaign “centered on crime and inflation.”Last night, Ryan defeated Molinaro.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Some of the year’s most consequential (and highly anticipated) primary battles will be decided tonight in two of the largest states in the country: New York and Florida.Sunshine State Democrats will settle on a nominee to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis as his national star ascends. In one corner, there’s Charlie Crist, the current Democratic congressman and former Republican governor. In the other is state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.Politico's Florida Playbook author Gary Fineout joins the show from Florida to tell you what you need to know. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It’s been a long time (months? years?) since we’ve seen national Democrats in such a good mood about their electoral chances. Over the last few weeks — amid a spate of legislative movement, falling gas prices, stumbling Republican Senate candidates and the sense of a growing backlash to efforts to restrict abortion — the fight for control of Congress seems to have tightened. Gone are the days when pundits confidently predicted a red tsunami.The latest NBC News poll — which still shows Republicans with a lead in the generic congressional ballot — had two data points that stuck out to us:1. Democrats have almost eliminated the enthusiasm gap with Republicans. “According to the survey, 68% of Republicans express a high level of interest in the upcoming election … versus 66% for Democrats,” notes Mark Murray. “That 2-point GOP advantage is down from 17 points in March and 8 points in May.” 2. Voters ranked “threats to democracy” as a more important issue than cost of living.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Our colleagues have a pair of stories up this morning as election attention turns to the Empire State’s Tuesday primary.— “Want to know if a red wave is happening? Watch this special election next week,” by Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris. The race to succeed Democrat Antonio Delgado in New York’s 19th district next week will offer one of two signals about the 2022 election: It will either (1) preview the pain headed the Democratic Party’s way in November, or (2) provide powerful evidence that a Republican wave election is not in the offing. Ally and Sarah report from Woodstock, N.Y., that “both parties are dumping money into this Hudson Valley district to notch a short-lived but symbolic victory in the last competitive race before the midterms.”— “Maloney kicks NY-12 campaign into overdrive. But will it be enough?” by Sally Goldenberg and Georgia Rosenberg. Back in Manhattan, Rep. Carolyn Maloney is charging forward in a late push to keep up with fellow Rep. Jerry Nadler in the 12th district’s Democratic primary amid a surge in his support over recent weeks (he nabbed the endorsement of the NYT and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer).Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Ron Klain says ‘season of substance’ could save DemsRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Twelve weeks before the midterm elections, Republicans’ hopes of retaking the Senate rest on a slate of Donald Trump's hand-picked nominees. And, across the board, they appear to be struggling.In Pennsylvania, a ferocious Democratic campaign to paint Mehmet Oz as an out-of-touch carpetbagger has left him trailing in multiple polls. Herschel Walker may be a Georgia Bulldogs legend, but key voters appear to be doubting him after a series of gaffes and abuse allegations. The backing of Silicon Valley titan Peter Thiel hasn't yet been enough to sell Blake Masters' sharp-edged conservatism to Arizona voters. Yes, it's still early. Yes, Democrats have been on a bit of a winning streak lately. And, yes, plenty is going to change before Nov. 8. But with only one competitive state (New Hampshire) yet to select its Senate nominee, the picture is clear: Democrats across the country are finding ways to run ahead — sometimes well ahead — of Joe Biden's approval ratings.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Rep. Liz Cheney is wasting no time beginning the next phase of her bid to prevent Donald Trump's return to office. “In coming weeks, Liz will be launching an organization to educate the American people about the ongoing threat to our Republic, and to mobilize a unified effort to oppose any Donald Trump campaign for president,” Cheney spokesperson Jeremy Adler tells Playbook exclusively.The new group, which will serve as Cheney’s primary political vehicle as she considers whether to run for president in 2024, does not have an official name yet. An informed guess: The Great Task, which was the name of Cheney’s final ad of the campaign. The phrase is from the last sentence of the Gettysburg Address, and Cheney also referenced it in her concession speech from Jackson, Wyo., last night. Cheney will be on NBC’s “Today Show” at 7 a.m.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

President Joe Biden and his entire administration are readying for a roadshow with a simple message: We did what we said we would do.The White House, looking to capitalize on his string of policy and political wins, is launching a travel and media blitz over the next few weeks as it looks to beat the historical midterm odds in less than three months.  The details of the victory lap were outlined in a White House memo from deputy chief of staff Jen O'Malley Dillon and senior adviser Anita Dunn to chief of staff Ron Klain, exclusively obtained by Playbook. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Donald Trump will not oppose the Justice Department’s motion to unseal the search warrant approved by a federal court in West Palm Beach on August 5 and a partially redacted property receipt listing the items seized during the FBI search. (The redactions, according to the government, “remove the names of law enforcement personnel who executed the search,” which seems to indicate that they do not remove any information about the items seized.)Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the government’s filing Thursday afternoon at an unusual two-minute briefing at the Department of Justice.His reason for unsealing the documents? “The department filed the motion to make public the warrant and receipt in light of the former president’s public confirmation of the search, the surrounding circumstances, and the substantial public interest in this matter.”It seems likely that Garland would not have asked the court to make the warrant and property receipt public if Trump had not gone nuclear with his accusations that the attorney general and FBI had weaponized law enforcement against him.Garland, as many observers put it, called Trump’s bluff. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

There are two stories worth your time this morning: one about Donald Trump in the Wall Street Journal and one about Joe Biden in the Washington Post. They intersect with each other in a way that gets to the heart of the most profound question in American politics. First: There’s a government informant inside Trump’s inner circle. (Awake now?) That’s the takeaway from WSJ’s Alex Leary, Aruna Viswanatha and Sadie Gurman, who retell the tale of the Mar-a-Lago records caper with important new details.Second: The second story worthy of your time is Michael Scherer, Ashley Parker and Tyler Pager’s account of recent meetings between Joe Biden and a circle of policy, political and academic experts from outside the administration. The meetings follow Biden’s promise to do more outreach — to seek “more input, more information, more constructive criticism about what I should and shouldn’t be doing,” as he put it during a news conference in January.Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It’s been two days since the FBI searched Trump’s Florida home, spurring loud calls for transparency at Justice. But Trump’s lawyers have the warrant and a detailed manifest of what the FBI took away. Why haven’t they been released? We asked Trump lawyer Christina Bobb, who was at Mar-a-Lago during the search, and will report back what we hear.Both Bobb and a second Trump lawyer, Lindsey Halligan, who was also present for the search, gave interviews on Tuesday and filled in some details.CBS News: “Halligan received a call at around 10 a.m. Monday that FBI agents were at Trump’s Palm Beach home, Mar-a-Lago, and they had a search warrant. She was the second Trump attorney to arrive on scene, at about 11 a.m, after the search had begun. Christina Bobb, who used to be a TV host on the far right OAN Network, was already there.“Over the next eight hours, Halligan said 30-40 FBI personnel conducted the search. There were a handful dressed in suits, but most wore t-shirts, cargo pants, masks and gloves. Halligan estimates 10-15 FBI vehicles went in and out of the property, including a Ryder truck. …Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletterRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.