GoodFellows: Conversations on Economics, History & Geopolitics

Tyler Goodspeed, economic historian and former White House CEA chair, explains why recessions are shock-driven rather than old‑age declines. He recounts dramatic cases from locust plagues to pirate attacks, connects finance and policy failures to big downturns, and compares past oil shocks and wartime disruptions to modern economic risks.

Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State and national security advisor now leading the Hoover Institution, joins a panel to weigh risks of wider Gulf conflict. They probe threats to oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Conversations cover Iran’s internal weaknesses, geopolitical winners and losers, political stakes at home, and the emerging role of AI in modern warfare.

H.R. McMaster, retired lieutenant general offering military and national-security analysis. John Cochrane, economist focused on macro effects and inflation. Niall Ferguson, historian on global geopolitics. They debate Iran’s capacity to widen conflict. They weigh prospects of regime change and regional spillover. They consider risks to oil routes, potential energy shocks, and how Beijing and Moscow might react.

H. R. McMaster, retired lieutenant general with national-security expertise; John Cochrane, economist focused on tariffs and macro policy; Sir Niall Ferguson, historian of economic and international history. They debate U.S. options on Iran and timing of action. They unpack the Epstein revelations and their reach in Britain. They analyze the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and political and economic fallout.

Frank Dikötter, a leading historian of modern China and Hoover Institution fellow, outlines how the CCP rose through violence, Soviet aid, and contingency rather than romanticized heroism. He and the panel compare Xi to Mao on power consolidation and purges. The conversation then shifts to U.S. political dynamics, economic indicators, and a debate over Billie Eilish’s remark on “stolen land.”

Tyler Cowen, economist and public intellectual; Niall Ferguson, historian specializing in globalism; John Cochrane, economist focused on policy; H.R. McMaster, former national security advisor with military insight. They debate Davos and globalization, whether Trump is a globalist, tariffs and supply chains, Europe’s strategic limits, rising urban collectivist rhetoric, AI’s impact on elites, Minnesota protests and immigration, Iran strike odds, and China’s military purge.

The panel dives into the chaos in Iran, exploring how the U.S. might influence the regime's fate. They discuss Trump's unique foreign policy approach, drawing Nixonian parallels while scrutinizing the silence from the progressive left on Iran's turmoil. Tensions rise as they consider ramifications of the DOJ's probe into Jerome Powell and the geopolitical stakes of Greenland. The conversation wraps up with a heartfelt tribute to Bob Weir, celebrating his impact on culture and music.

H. R. McMaster, a former U.S. Army lieutenant general and national security advisor, joins historian Sir Niall Ferguson and economist John H. Cochrane for an engaging discussion. They dive into the controversial U.S. operation to capture Venezuela’s president, exploring the implications for regime change and global power dynamics. The trio also examines Iran's crumbling economy amid protests, questioning the likelihood of political transformation in 2026. Additionally, they ponder whether nations like Greenland or Cuba could face similar outcomes, highlighting the fragility in geopolitics.

Andrew Ross Sorkin, a renowned financial columnist and author of "1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History," dives into the complexities of the 1929 stock market crash alongside Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster. They discuss how oversimplified narratives about the crash overlook critical policy dynamics. The conversation also explores modern parallels with AI-driven finance, the influence of lobbying on acquisitions, and predictions for the future of the Federal Reserve. The panel wraps up with personal reflections on the past year and a lighthearted surprise from 'Santa'.

Ben Sasse, former U.S. Senator from Nebraska and university president, dives into the declining trust in Congress and academia. He discusses the growing power of the executive branch, blaming social media for undermining deliberation. Sasse also examines the crisis in higher education, revealing many students lack basic math skills. Additionally, he critiques the administrative state’s rise since the 1970s and proposes reforming tenured positions to enhance faculty accountability. Light-heartedly, the guests humorously debate tiny cars and the unique identity of American football.