GoodFellows: Conversations on Economics, History & Geopolitics Who’s Actually Running Iran? with Abbas Milani | Hoover Institution
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Apr 17, 2026 
Abbas Milani, Stanford Iran scholar and Hoover fellow, unpacks who really runs Iran and why the IRGC dominates. He discusses regime fragmentation, the IRGC’s economic grip and corruption, the risks of closing the Strait of Hormuz, and whether sanctions or asset freezes could topple theocracy. Brief debates cover use of militias, prospects for negotiated deals, and signs of popular unrest.
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IRGC Has Become Iran’s De Facto Ruling Power
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now effectively runs Iran as a military dictatorship, sidelining nominal civilian figures and possibly even the supreme leader.
- Abbas Milani names key IRGC figures (Vahidi, Zolgat, Rezaei, Safabi) and describes the group as a small, terror-origin coterie consolidating power and resources.
Regime Seeks Deals But Needs Face Saving
- The regime has been militarily beaten and economically weakened, yet seeks deals while preserving face to survive politically.
- Milani argues Iran wants concessions to revive its economy but must portray them as forced on the U.S. or Israel to avoid appearing weak.
IRGC Blocks Internal Negotiation With Bonapartist Charge
- The IRGC publicly denounced potential negotiators as ‘Bonapartist’ to block internal deals, revealing active intra-regime suppression of conciliatory figures.
- Milani points to IRGC statements that shut down Qalibov’s negotiating initiative before meetings in Islamabad.