Wealth Formula by Buck Joffrey

It turns out that the conversation about getting out of fossil fuels and into green energy is a lot more complicated than just energy. Of course “black gold” has literally fueled our society into its wealthiest state since the beginning of man. No one argues that. But there is a clear movement globally to try and move to clean energy for the sake of the environment. Beyond energy, however, oil plays a pivotal role in the manufacture of several products that we rely on in our daily lives. For example, the petrochemical industry heavily depends on oil as a raw material. Petrochemicals derived from oil and natural gas are the building blocks for a wide range of goods from plastics to resins, synthetic fibers to rubbers, detergents to adhesives, and even solvents. Without these materials, you wouldn’t even have the materials to make the computer or smartphone you’re using to read this email.   Right now, we literally need oil to live. Many pharmaceuticals such as aspirin and the coatings on time-release pill are made from oil derivatives as are artificial heart valves, artificial limbs and even contact lenses. I could give you a myriad of other products that rely on oil but suffice it to say that life without these products would not be the same. Does that mean that we should give up on alternative energy? No. We should always be looking for cheaper and cleaner alternatives. The point is that to truly get off fossil fuels we also need to start thinking about alternatives for all of the products that rely on oil as well. It’s an underappreciated problem that my guest on this week’s Wealth Formula Podcast addresses and it’s worth your time to understand the full scope of the issue. Listen Now! Ronald (Ron) Stein (born April 29, 1941) is an author, columnist, Engineer and energy policy advisor for Heartland Institute. He is co-author of Energy Made Easy – Helping Citizens become Energy Literate (2019), Just GREEN Electricity – Helping Citizens Understand a World without Fossil Fuels (2020), and the 2021 Pulitzer Prize nominated book Clean Energy Exploitations – Helping citizens understand the environmental and humanity abuses that support “clean” energy. Ronald advocates that energy literacy starts with conversations and the knowledge that renewable energy is only intermittent electricity generated from unreliable breezes and sunshine. Wind turbines and solar panels cannot manufacture anything for humanity, while fossil fuels manufacture everything for the 8 billion on this planet.[citation needed] He is the founder of Principal Technical Services (PTS).

Investing during tough times can be challenging, but it's important to activate your instincts as a predator. The podcast explores applying fighter pilot decision-making to everyday life, emphasizing the value of clear thinking and preparation. Planning for uncertainty and understanding power laws are also discussed. The podcast delves into overcoming fear and building mental resilience, and highlights the importance of parallel thinking and rational investing.

I was in high school when the Berlin Wall came down. The ensuing decade was really like no other I have experienced in my life. It was the 1990s. There was no more cold war. Decades of fear of nuclear annihilation vanished into thin air. And 9/11 had not yet happened so we did not yet know the new world of terrorism. It could be that I was young and stupid but life seemed good. The news of the day was about Monica Lewinsky’s stained dress and political conflict seemed ludicrous but benign. Back then, I used to think that the world just got better with time. But in the last 20-30 years I have realized that it’s actually more of a pendulum. There is no doubt that we now live in turbulent times. The country is horribly divided to the point where rational individuals have brought up the idea of a national divorce. Ronald Reagan is rolling in his grave. Nevertheless, as crazy as these times may seem, we should keep in perspective that we have seen worse before. In 1861 we actually did have a civil war. As for cultural wars. Well, all you have to do is go back to  1968 to see that what’s going on now is actually pretty tame. Of course, I don’t need to tell you that the United States has had numerous economic booms and busts throughout our history. Bottom line is that history does not repeat itself but it certainly does rhyme. My guest on today’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast is an esteemed historian that has recognized specific historical patterns and suggests that they are highly predictable. So what’s next for the United States and its economy? He thinks we are in the final stage of an 80-year cycle. Find out what that means for you on this week’s Wealth Formula Podcast. Neil Howe is a historian, economist, and demographer who writes and speaks frequently on generational change in American history and on long-term fiscal policy. He is cofounder of LifeCourse Associates, a marketing, HR, and strategic planning consultancy serving corporate, government, and nonprofit clients. He has coauthored six books with William Strauss, including Generations (1991), 13th Gen (1993), The Fourth Turning (1997), and Millennials Rising (2000). His other coauthored books include On Borrowed Time (1988). And more recently Millennials Go to College (2007), and Millennials in the Workplace (2010). He is also a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he helps lead the CSIS “Global Aging Initiative,” and a senior advisor to the Concord Coalition. He holds graduate degrees in history and economics from Yale University. He lives in Great Falls, Virginia.

Why is financial education not part of our school system? To understand that, you have to understand where our school system came from. Our educational system started during the industrial revolution and was influenced heavily by the Prussian system. What do you think of when you hear “industrial revolution?” I think of factories and conveyor belts. This was a time of massive production gains in the United States and a fundamental change in the way we live. So not only did businesses need to produce more products with factories, but they also needed factories to create people to work in those factories. Schools became factories for people. Students were treated like products on an assembly line, all learning the same thing at the same pace, much like widgets rolling off a conveyor belt. The rich business owners were the beneficiaries of this system. They got a workforce ready to fit into their industries, and these workers were less likely to question or challenge the system because that’s not what they were trained to do. Despite the fact that we have moved beyond the industrial revolution into the information age, the old education system remains. Lots of standardized tests, rote learning, and teachers seen more as authorities than guides. Now, ask yourself why financial education isn’t part of our school system. It becomes pretty obvious doesn’t it? Why would a system designed to create a workforce teach them about money? After all, financial independence doesn’t exactly incentivize someone to continue working. My guest on this week’s Wealth Formula is a young woman trying to change the system. It’s clearly an uphill battle but make sure to listen and hear how she’s planning to do it. Yanely was born and raised in Brooklyn, New York and is one of the first in her family to graduate college. After two decades of school, she still can’t believe that she never had a class about making smart money decisions! Now, she’s on a mission to help young people learn about personal finance in a fun and engaging way! After completing Teach For America, Yanely paired her love for teaching with her passion for financial literacy, creating a unique YouTube channel for people to engage with topics like budgeting, managing credit, saving and investing for retirement and more! Yanely serves as the Director of Educational Outreach at Next Gen Personal Finance and is a member of CNBC’s Financial Wellness Advisory Council.

This week’s podcast is about energy. But before we do that I want to comment on a few things about our investing ecosystem. A decade ago when I first started playing around with this podcast concept I was very excited about a whole new world of investing that I was learning about. Why invest in the stock market if you could invest in real estate, oil and gas and other businesses that seemingly made a lot more money and had a lot less risk? A decade later, I can see why it often makes sense for people to just buy ETFs and call it a day. Or, maybe a highly stable asset class such as permanent life insurance i.e. Wealth Formula Banking. Private investing can be very lucrative, but it’s not regulated so it attracts all kinds of nefarious and/or incompetent characters to the space. Retail (mom-and-pop) investors are particularly vulnerable to these people because they tend to have less financial sophistication. That’s not to say they aren’t intelligent. It’s just hard to be a full-time professional and a sophisticated investor at the same time. That gets a little dangerous because personal finance podcasters like me are looking for content. We see ourselves as providing education and entertainment when in fact we often inadvertently endorse individuals to whom we should not give a platform. I have to admit that I have been guilty of this myself. Especially early on, I would interview anyone with an interesting idea without considering that my listeners might take the interview as a stamp of approval from me. For example, despite my own vehement and vocal dislike for investments in oil and gas drilling, I’ve given a platform to people on my podcast who were raising money for that. People in our community lost money because of that. For that, I apologize. In recent months, retail investors in this space have been hit especially hard. The SEC has shut down funds in the carbon capture and cannabis spaces that appear to be based in some level of fraud and other funds have simply collapsed based on poor business plans that were never attenable in the first place. Fortunately, our group was able to dodge these schemes. It’s hard enough to invest without swimming with sharks. Case in point…my real estate portfolio and that of my investor group absolutely has some losers in it right now. Much of that is due to an unprecedented slope of rate hikes and unexpected price escalations in such things as materials, property taxes, and insurance. But it’s not because of fraud. In investing, you can’t always win. You just need to win more than you lose. At the end of the day, my own investments are still going to net out quite profitably. I’ve borrowed from traditional investing paradigms and “volume-averaged” into a lot of different assets. I’ve stuck to a plan over several years that will, fortunately, overcome some setbacks and I will now position myself to be opportunistic and take advantage of oncoming distress. It will get ugly and most will be too scared to take action—especially if they have suffered losses. But that’s exactly when you want to be greedy, not afraid. But going back to how we can move forward in the safest way possible, we do need to be proactive in risk mitigation—especially when it comes to avoiding scams. So what am I going to do? 1) I will not interview anyone actively raising capital unless I am personally involved in the operation in a position of transparency. 2) Our Investor Club will only present opportunities in which I am a managing partner and/or which has undergone due diligence by a third-party SEC registered broker-dealer. In taking these steps, my podcast itself does become a little bit more challenging. As you may have already noticed, we have shifted to more macro issues than investment-related topics. However, I also believe that the steps we are taking with the podcast and with the investor club will provide our group a “best in class” retail experience that involves institutional-level due diligence. It will be more complicated and challenging to execute but that’s what you deserve. Now, getting back to this week’s episode of Wealth Formula podcast. We are going to talk about oil and alternative energy sources at the macro level. It’s information that you need to understand the larger global financial picture today so make sure to tune in! Alex Stevens serves as the Manager of Policy and Communications for the American Energy Alliance. In his role, Alex writes on the relationship between business and government in the energy industry as well as the effects of regulation and subsidies on energy markets. Alex graduated with a B.S. in Political Science from Central Michigan University and a B.A. in Journalism from Oakland University. Shownotes: Why are we still on an oil based economy? EPA story about combustion engine emissions Are renewable energy and electric vehicles as green as they seem?

What a crazy ride it’s been. Despite Covid, plunging interest rates actually made home prices explode to new highs. In my own neighborhood, housing prices doubled. Then it started to look like the housing bubble had started to burst. There were mortgage companies in distress and laid off thousands. Economists warned the next housing recession was upon us. It all made sense. How could such a wild ride not end with a hangover? But then a funny thing happened. For the last few months, housing prices actually started creeping up again. They aren’t going up by much. But the big thing is that they’re not going down. A lot of this is really due to reduced inventory. People who were going to sell their homes, most likely sold them as they saw their largest asset bubble into a pile of potential cash. With less inventory bidding wars are helping to push prices up further. In fact, Zillow predicts home prices will keep rising in 2024. Obviously a lot of that will depend on what the Fed does in the next few months. This is tricky stuff to predict. My guest on this week’s Wealth Formula podcast is using Big Data to make his own predictions.  Listen now to hear what he has to say. Mike Simonsen is the founder and president of real estate analytics firm Altos Research, which has provided national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country for more than 15 years. An expert trendspotter, Mike uses Altos data to identify market shifts months before they hit the headlines.

Last week I called the economy schizophrenic. Actually, that’s an insult to schizophrenics. This is simply a dysfunctional economy. It’s the product of a good idea called capitalism with excessive intervention—namely by the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States. Today’s economy reminds me a little bit of the movie, Jurassic Park. Altering the natural order of things has unexpected consequences… like a T-Rex eating you alive. Similarly, the Fed printed money for years and kept interest rates at artificially low levels—even when it probably didn’t need to. Sure, raising rates 10 years ago might have caused a little recession along the way, but that’s NORMAL. Instead, they decided to take intervention to a new level. Rather than seeing the role of business cycles in a healthy economy,  they became reactive to equity markets. To be clear, keeping equity markets in a bubble has never been a mandate of the Federal Reserve. But there they were.  They would threaten to raise rates, the markets would panic sell and then the Fed would quickly back off. The Fed was playing a game of chicken with investors and the investors won over and over again—so much so that people began to believe that the Fed wouldn’t ever let the markets go into free fall. Then Covid happened and, with it, something unprecedented. True helicopter money was released into the hands of ordinary Americans by the United States government. You see when the Fed prints money it lands in the arms of banks who would simply hoard it. This time, things were different. People needed the money to eat so the government put it into their hands. And that, along with high demand for goods because of a crippled supply chain lit the fire of rapid inflation—the worst we have seen in 40 years. Of course, somehow the Fed didn’t realize that it was real at first and didn’t act quickly. In hindsight, gradual increasing of rates would have made sense and probably prevented the need for extreme measures. Instead, it waited for things to get out of hand and then put its foot on the gas like never before. Now we are sort of in no-man’s land. Inflation seems to be getting under control. There is some distress in the economy as seen by bank failures and corporate bankruptcies at 2010 levels. The commercial real estate markets are a mess. But…we also added 339,000 jobs last month. Why? I don’t know other than to guess it has something to do with optimism that the Fed will change course and become Dovish with rates. In other words, businesses may not believe that the Fed will let things get that bad before they reverse course and start cutting rates. It reminds me of a spoiled child who knows that if he whines long enough his parents will give in. It’s not the kid’s fault that he behaves that way. It’s the way the parents taught him to behave. Similarly, businesses and investors don’t really believe the Fed when it says enough is enough about low rates and money printing. I’m not sure that I do either. So, that’s this non-economist’s take on what’s going on with the economy. There’s a good chance that I have several flaws in my argument but, as I’ve said before, I’m trying really hard to make sense of it so I can move forward. Richard Duncan is a real economist—one who recently spoke to Congress on what he believes needs to be done to move America ahead. He has some pretty good ideas about what’s going on with the economy now that I think will be useful to you. Listen to my interview with him on this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast! Richard Duncan is the author of four books analyzing the causes and the effects of the economic crises that have brought the global economy to the brink of collapse during recent decades. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the global economic disaster that began in 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to re-balance the global economy and restore sustainable growth (CLSA Books, 2009) described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the Crisis of 2008. The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012) introduced an important new analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explained all aspects of the global economic crisis that began in 2008: its causes, the rationale for the government’s policy response to the crisis, and likely future developments. His latest book is The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century (John Wiley & Sons, 2022). The first two parts of the book describe the evolution of Money and Credit over the last century. These include a detailed history of the Federal Reserve since its establishment in 1913 and a discussion of the transformation of our economic system from Capitalism to Creditism during the five decades since Dollars ceased to be backed by Gold. Parts One and Two show that a “Money Revolution” has occurred and fundamentally altered the way the global economy functions. Part Three demonstrates that this Money Revolution opens up unprecedented opportunities for the United States to radically accelerate economic growth, enhance human wellbeing and strengthen US national security by investing aggressively in the Industries and Technologies of the Future. Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis. Richard currently publishes Macro Watch, the biweekly video newsletter he founded in 2013. Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio. His books have been reviewed in the Financial Times and The Economist, and taught at Harvard and Columbia. He is also a well-known speaker whose audiences have included The World Economic Forum’s East Asia Economic Summit in Singapore, The EuroFinance Conference in Copenhagen, The Chief Financial Officers’ Roundtable in Shanghai, The World Knowledge Forum in Seoul, and the CFA Society during a speaking tour around South America. In February 2023, Richard was the guest speaker at a House Ways and Means Committee policy dinner in Washington, D. C. Richard studied literature and economics at Vanderbilt University (1983) and international finance at Babson College (1986); and, between the two, spent a year traveling around the world as a backpacker. Shownotes: The Confusing Economy Will Credit Growth Push the US Into Recession? Savings and Money Supply Economy Impact of Student Loan Repayments Rethinking the Fed’s policy Wealth to Income Ratio US Current Account Deficit Macro Watch

I am annoyed with this economy. That doesn’t seem like a very professional thing to say but I don’t know how else to express my feelings any better. You see, nothing really makes sense. Inflation has been as high as it has been since the 1980s. At first, the Fed didn’t think it was real and then reacted by increasing interest rates at the fastest rate in American history. Businesses are feeling it. Corporate bankruptcies are at 2009 levels likely in response to illiquid lending markets. The commercial real estate market is paralyzed with blood starting to seep through the streets. But…last month’s jobs reports showed that we added 339,000 jobs significantly exceeding expectations. WTF? It makes no sense at all. Why is the jobs report important for us? Well, because that’s one of the variables that the Fed is looking at as they decide what to do with rates going forward. Inflation is down to 4 percent which is starting to feel comfortable, but a jobs report like that is going to give the Fed pause on being dovish going forward. So, I have no idea what to expect next. And if I have no idea what to expect then other businesses and investors are likely equally confused. And the problem with that is that uncertainty is what the markets hate the most. So…that’s where we are at and that’s why I am so annoyed. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast I interview an economist who teaches entrepreneurs. He’s written a book on how we can start looking at the economy in a practical way. His perspective is a little different than the academics who run the Fed and it will be worth your time to hear what he has to say. Listen NOW Per L. Bylund grew up in eastern Sweden’s beautiful archipelago, some 20 miles northeast of the capital Stockholm. He is currently enjoying his new professional career, as a professor of entrepreneurship, following previous experiences as systems developer and business consultant, elected politician, and entrepreneur. Bylund earned a bachelor’s degree in business administration (civilekonom) in 1998, majoring in corporate finance and accounting, and a master’s degree in business informatics in 1999, both at the Jönköping International Business School. He then pursued a career in IT and business consulting in Stockholm and Malmö working primarily with web systems development and business process automation and as CIO for companies Datastrategi, Mogul.com, WOCHB, Guide Konsult, and Nordengren Ett. Bylund is certified as Microsoft Certified Professional (four expert areas). In 1998, Bylund was elected for the municipal council in his native Österåkers kommun, where he also served as a member of two municipal boards. He held numerous positions with several political organizations for a full decade until he turned his back on party politics in 2000. While pursuing his career in IT, Bylund studied political science at Stockholm University. He later moved to Lund and earned a master’s degree in political theory at Lund University in 2005. Throughout 2004, Bylund lived in Taipei in the Republic of China (Taiwan) where he studied mandarin Chinese. In 2007, he moved to the United States to pursue a doctorate in applied economics at the University of Missouri. Graduating in 2012, he spent the 2012-2013 year as an adjunct professor teaching entrepreneurship in the Management Department of Trulaske College of Business at “Mizzou.” He moved to Waco, TX for a research professorship in the Department of Management and Entrepreneurship in the Hankamer School of Business and the Baugh Center for Entrepreneurship and Free Enterprise at Baylor University in 2013. He is currently associate professor of entrepreneurship and Johnny D. Pope Chair in the School of Entrepreneurship in the Spears School of Business at Oklahoma State University, where he has worked since 2015. Bylund has experience founding several startups between 1993 and 2006, none of which became a successful business. Failure is a great teacher, however, and the real value of these experiences is realized in his research and teaching. He currently lives in Tulsa, OK with his wife Susanne.

There is a significant amount of distress in the investor world right now. With inflation and interest rates climbing quickly, it has left the equity and real estate markets in shambles. We will get through this. And while I encourage you to fight against the fear of investing so that you can take advantage of oncoming blood in the streets, I understand if you are reluctant. We’ve had tough times in American economic history. The Great Depression of the 1930s was a period of extreme economic hardship and uncertainty. It started with a stock market crash on Black Tuesday, October 29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 12% of its value that day. The crash continued into the following weeks. By mid-November 1929, the market had lost over $30 billion in value (approximately $400 billion in today’s terms). This loss of wealth led to reduced consumer spending and investment, which in turn led to job losses and business closures.  Real estate prices also fell significantly during the Great Depression. Many people were unable to afford to keep their homes or buy new ones, leading to a surplus of available properties and a corresponding drop in prices. However, life insurance companies displayed a surprising level of resilience during the Great Depression. While it was a challenging time for these companies, as it was for the entire economy, they weathered the storm better than many other types of businesses. For this reason, an entire generation of individuals put a premium on permanent life insurance as an investment. It was all they had left once the dust of the Depression had settled.  Nevertheless, the next generation of Americans forgot about the depression and the value that permanent life insurance had played in their parents’ survival. Even with insurance strategies that significantly increased investor returns, financial advisors focussed on their personal AUM continued to treat it like a red-headed stepchild. As you may know, I am an advocate of permanent life insurance, specifically overfunded type policies such as Wealth Formula Banking and Wealth Accelerator. They have been a source of profitability and stability for me. Even in times like now where my portfolio has taken such a beating, I can count on the insurance portion of my net worth. As I thought about that last week, I decided to bring it back on your radar so I invited our insurance partners back to the show. If you haven’t yet secured permanent life insurance as part of your portfolio, you will want to make sure you listen to this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast. Rod has been in financial services since 2009. Prior to going into business for himself, he worked in marketing and finance with several small businesses. He had the opportunity to purchase an existing furniture business in 2007, just prior to the Great Recession. The experience of struggling to stay afloat amid difficult economic conditions inspires Rod every day in his efforts to educate and assist his clients in implementing sound financial strategies. He strongly advocates for establishing a firm foundation, utilizing proven strategies and financial tools to create a strong base upon which we can each build our financial house. In addition to focusing on Wealth Formula Banking and Velocity Plus, he has expertise in retirement income planning. Rod has a bachelor’s degree in Marketing Communications, and an MBA with an emphasis in Entrepreneurship. He and his wife Jodi are the proud parents of 7 wonderful children. As a family they thrive on spending time exploring nature, playing games and doing projects together. He enjoys sports, music and reading. Brenyn started in the finance industry in 2019 after he graduated with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing with a minor in Management from Utah Valley University. While Brenyn was in school, he managed a sales team in New York and Connecticut for 3 years. He learned while training, mentoring, and leading more than 75 sales reps that most of his reps had very little financial education. This ignited Brenyn’s own financial education and is what ultimately guided him into the financial industry. Brenyn started at a finance firm in Salt Lake City and quickly built his own practice with the same ideals and strategies that we believe in. Naturally, this led to a great fit between Brenyn and the Wealth Formula Banking team. He joined the team in 2020 and helps facilitate the education, implementation, and ongoing strategic review efforts of our clients. He is also our resident expert in disability income insurance. Brenyn enjoys furthering his education in the alternative investment space through books, podcasts, and webinars. He has been married for 5 years to his wife Aubri, and they enjoy boating, camping, and traveling. Shownotes: How did the concept of permanent life insurance come into existence in the first place? How did global events such as world wars, economic depressions and pandemics have impacted the insurance industry? Indexed Universal Life vs. Variable Life Insurance Wealth Accelerator