Moving Markets

US equities rallied on Friday following better than expected earnings reports; Alphabet's admission that it needs to reverse some of the business decisions it made during the pandemic; and members of the Federal Reserve arguing for a moderation in interest rate hikes. One interesting observation: US monthly new home sales for December were reported on Friday at 4 million, well below the 5 million seen during much of the last decade. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, makes the case for the Nasdaq and Swiss small- and mid-caps.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)03:33 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)05:33 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

US equity markets fell yesterday as investors digested comments from US Federal Reserve officials that monetary policy tightening has not yet finished. All the major indices in Europe also ended the day in the red. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his views on currencies, and Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research provides an update on digital assets.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)03:10 FX Update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)06:40 Digital Assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

After a strong start to the year, equity markets in the US and China saw investors take some of their chips off the table overnight. The Dow Jones for example lost 600 points, as investors took profits on some of the strong January gains and as a disappointing December retail sales reading raised concerns of a recession. Meanwhile, the 10 year US Treasury bond continued to rally, seeing its yield slide to its lowest level since September. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, reveals what the most recent Chinese economic data means for the country’s property market and the knock-on effect on industrial metals, and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office fills us in on the Investment Committee’s most recent thoughts and actions.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 03:46 China/Demographics/Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)07:06 Update from the Investment Committee by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)09:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said that Germany will not fall into a recession. And the Bank of Japan has decided to further maintain its ultra-low interest rate policy, causing the yen to tumble over 2.5%. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research, explains the implications of the BoJ’s decision for bond markets.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:07 Bank of Japan policy decisions and implications for bond markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)07:10 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Asian stocks dip this morning, with traders selling on weaker than expected Chinese gross domestic product data despite an uptick towards year-end. Japanese stocks are up on the prospects of a further adjustment of the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve-control policy at the central bank’s meeting tomorrow. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his thoughts about Q4 results reported by some of the heavy-weight US Wall Street banks – markets are eagerly awaiting Morgan Stanley’s and Goldman Sachs’s reports, due today.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)03:41 US bank earnings by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)05:48 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

US equities reversed their initial losses on Friday as investors seemed to like what they heard from major US banks on their earnings releases and US short-term inflation expectations fell to their lowest in nearly two years. An interesting observation: after the recent rally, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the last twelve months. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about what type of assets to own as US Treasury yields have fallen recently.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)03:22 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)04:50 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

The US inflation data was certainly the most important news item yesterday - the US stock market seesawed in reaction to the data and then ended in the green. While market participants are now speculating on the future interest rate path of the US Federal Reserve, they are slowly but surely turning their attention to the earnings season, which kicks off today with the usual big US banks. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his thoughts on currency markets, and our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, gives an update on stablecoins.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:35 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)06:38 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:00 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Susan Collins, has spoken out in favour of an interest rate hike of 0.25% at the US central bank’s next policy decision. We take a look at what the Q4 2022 earnings season holds in store, we find out what China’s reopening means for the copper market and we also feature an update from Julius Baer’s first Investment Committee meeting of the year.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:41 Q4 2022 earnings briefing by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy Research)06:55 Copper’s reaction to China reopening by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:23 Update on the 2023’s first Investment Committee meeting by Nicolas Jordan (CIO office)12:42 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

The key US equity indices closed higher yesterday with the Nasdaq Composite celebrating a third day in the green, as investors optimistic about the prospect of cooling inflation took the opportunity to pick up beaten-up tech stocks. Asian markets followed suit – further buoyed by China’s reopening. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research joins the podcast today to enlighten us on new research data on one aspect of the Healthy Living theme – why how much (water) you drink, matters.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:07 New Year’s resolution - lower blood sodium? By Damien Ng (Next Generation Research)05:23 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

In Europe, almost all of the major indices ended the day in the green yesterday and US equities also started positively, but the hawkish comments from some US Federal Reserve officials then dampened the mood. The S&P 500 ended the day broadly flat, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.6%, helped particularly by Tesla’s rally. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, comments on the latest economic data in the US and Europe, and Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research talks about the latest situation in Brazil and what it means from a fixed income investment perspective.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)03:39 US jobs report, European inflation figures by David Kohl (Chief Economist)09:27 Brazil by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)12:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)