Moving Markets

Equities as well as bonds are trading lower this morning, with renewed tensions between the US and China over an alleged spy balloon and US payrolls and the latest ISM report threatening the common narrative of US interest rates peaking. However, from a technical perspective, US stock markets are showing plenty of positive momentum, as our Head of Technical Analysis Mensur Pocinci explains. The Japanese yen is under pressure following the rumoured appointment of Masayoshi Amamiya, one of the architects of the Japanese ultra-easy monetary policy, as Chairman of the Bank of Japan.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)04:00 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)06:01 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Global equities were propelled higher yesterday by expectations that rates are soon to peak, even as the European Central Bank is leaning against this view, and a surge in shares of Meta Platforms. This morning, markets are being weighed lower by results of Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, notes that after the central bank meetings this week, FX markets went into reverse as the dollar rose despite a more dovish US Federal Reserve and the euro fell even though the European Central Bank was more hawkish. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, highlights that in digital assets it is all about staking at the moment and the upcoming upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain network.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)03:16 Currencies and metals update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)06:13 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)08:54 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

The US trading day was marred by an issue with the New York Stock Exchange system that caused hundreds of securities to commence trading without an opening auction price. After-hours trading saw Microsoft rally and then fall following better-than-expected earnings but a warning regarding its cloud-computing business. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research Analyst, joins the show to explain the rationale for his call to invest in USD investment-grade bonds.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:58 Review & preview of central bank meetings by Markus Allenspach (Fixed Income Research)09:08 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)10:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Several data releases yesterday showed encouraging signs that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes over the past year have begun to slow inflation. Investors are now eagerly awaiting today’s interest rate decision from the US and subsequent comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – which could certainly provide the big headlines of the day. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research provides an update on this week’s central bank action and what it all means for investors.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:05 Central Banks – what’s coming up this week by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)07:33 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Brexit is costing the UK economy GBP 100 billion a year and economists at Bloomberg believe the UK economy is 4% smaller than it might have otherwise been. In today’s episode, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides an update on the Q4 US earnings season and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares the latest news on the Chinese markets following last week’s Lunar New Year celebrations.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:11 US earnings update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)06:38 China after the Lunar New Year celebrations by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)12:00 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

After a strong start to the year for global equities, there is plenty going on for investors to watch this week: earnings releases from major global companies, China returning from its Lunar New Year celebrations, central banks in the US, Europe, and the UK expected to raise rates, and tensions flaring up again in the Middle East after an Israeli drone strike inside Iran. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that broad-based advances in US equities, in particular the Nasdaq index, support the case for further upward moves.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)03:51 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)05:18 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Markets were lifted yesterday by the latest data from the US, which showed that GDP rose more than analysts had predicted. In addition, consumer spending remained clearly positive and jobless claims were lower than expected - all good news from the US economy. In Asia, Japanese inflation is making headlines after rising to its highest level since 1981. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, gives his view on currency markets, and Manuel Villegas of the Next Generation Research team provides an update on digital assets.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:10 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)06:37 Digital asset update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)08:27 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

There were no big movements in the major US markets yesterday after the major indices in Europe all ended the day in the red. The US dollar has weakened ahead of US Q4 GDP data that comes out later today and the PCE inflation measure that is due out tomorrow. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his latest insights on the energy markets, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides details on the latest discussions with regard to the bank’s investment strategy.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)03:40 Update on energy by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)07:18 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)10:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The US trading day was marred by an issue with the New York Stock Exchange system that caused hundreds of securities to commence trading without an opening auction price. After-hours trading saw Microsoft rally and then fall following better-than-expected earnings but a warning regarding its cloud-computing business. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research Analyst, joins the show to explain the rationale for his call to invest in USD investment-grade bonds.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:06 USD investment-grade bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)06:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

US car manufacturer Ford announces plans to slash 3,200 jobs across Europe. The Nasdaq 100 gains 2.2%, marking its strongest 2-day rally since November. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, takes a closer look at the impact of China’s reopening. And Chief Economist David Kohl provides his insights on US GDP forecasts.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:36 China re-opening by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)06:57 US GDP forecast by David Kohl (Chief Economist)10:32 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)