Moving Markets

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has sued cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao for US securities violations. Our Chief Economist David Kohl talks about the risk of a recession in the US, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the digital assets space. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:42 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:48 What’s the chance of a US recession? by David Kohl (Chief Economist)11:32 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)15:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US equities gained on Friday on the back of the deal to raise the debt ceiling and a mixed bag of economic reports that suggested the Federal Reserve would hold off on raising interest rates at its June meeting. Saudi Arabia said it would cut oil production by an additional 1 million barrels per day after the OPEC+ meeting, while Turkey has a new market-friendly finance minister. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, points out that the outperformance of US equities has continued and become more broad-based.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:36 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:24 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)07:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Although this week's employment data was generally stronger and US manufacturing remains under pressure, equities and bonds broadly rallied yesterday as the outlook for central banks pausing on interest rate hikes brightened. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about how this could affect the US dollar, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, has a guess as to which digital assets will dominate going forward. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:36 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:03 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:02 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)14:07 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The US House of Representatives passed a bill late yesterday to suspend the USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling. The bill will now pass to the Senate just days before Monday’s US default deadline. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on oil, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, shares the latest thoughts of our CIO’s Investment Committee.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:43 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:05 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)08:22 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

China's economic recovery weakened in May as manufacturing activity slumped, prompting investors to sell stocks and call for more stimulus to boost growth. UK business confidence fell for the first time in three months as faster-than-expected inflation figures weighed on firms' sentiment about the economy. Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research provides insight into our views on both Greek and other eurozone sovereign bonds.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:43 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)04:00 Greek bonds back in favour by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)08:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Futures markets have reacted with cautious optimism to the fact that President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finally reached an agreement on a deal to raise the US debt ceiling this weekend. Nevertheless, they now face the challenge of getting the bill passed by the House of Representatives before 5th June. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Markus Allenspach, examines the deal and its economic consequences on today’s show.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:40 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:43 US debt ceiling update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)10:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The tech sector rallied strongly yesterday, while other sectors and the broader market were flat to slightly lower. This followed the upbeat outlook on AI-related demand from the US chip developer Nvidia. Meanwhile, negotiations over the US debt ceiling increase are heating up as time is running out for politicians to find a solution. And Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about where he sees opportunities in currencies and metals. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:36 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)07:01 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US ratings agency Fitch put the United States’ AAA bond rating on negative watch yesterday, saying that the debt ceiling negotiations have raised the risks that the government could miss payments on some of its obligations. The impact was felt by the major US indices which all closed lower, but Nvidia’s surprisingly good results did provide a boost to Nasdaq futures later. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, joins us to provide an update on the natural gas market, and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office gives us some insights into the latest thinking of our Investment Committee.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:51 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:30 Natural gas update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)09:12 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)11:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Global equity markets suffer losses after continued US debt-ceiling negotiations ended without a deal yesterday. This increases the likelihood that the House and the Senate will both have to vote on a deal next week to prevent the US from defaulting on its debt obligations. David Kohl, Chief Economist, shares his insights into the eurozone’s latest flash purchasing managers' index data and what this means for the growth outlook.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:46 European PMIs and growth outlook by David Kohl (Chief Economist)10:58 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The US debt ceiling negotiations are still stealing the spotlight and while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and US President Joe Biden had a “productive” meeting yesterday, they have not yet reached an agreement. Markus Allenspach, our Head of Fixed Income Research, joins today’s episode to explain whether he thinks a deal will be reached in time and why no-one can nail down an ‘X-date’ for when the US will actually run out of money. Hannah Wise, Business Journalist, shares how listeners can join our Beyond Markets webcast on Thursday about how to generate income in uncertain times. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:54 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:48 Update  on US debt ceiling talks by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)9:28 Details for Forthcoming Income Generation Webcast by Hannah Wise (Head of video channels)12:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)