Moving Markets

European markets fell at the start of the new trading week with investors nervous about the economic outlook. US markets were shut for the Juneteenth holiday on Monday. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight as investors digested China’s central bank decision to cut its one-year and five-year loan prime rate. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had his meeting with China's President Xi Jinping yesterday, with both sides pledging to stabilise their relationship. Hannah Wise joins the podcast today with details of what to expect when she hosts Christian Gattiker and David Kohl in the mid-year markets outlook webcast, which takes place at 10.00 CEST on the 27th of June.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:25 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)04:33 US growth and inflation by Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)05:30 Preview of Mid-Year Market Outlook webcast by Hannah Wise (Head of Video Channels)08:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The main story this morning is the visit to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which has shown the first tentative signs of progress. However, Asian equities are still lower today as investors reset their expectations for further stimulus from China. Despite a generally quiet morning, the week ahead will be busy for investors with a total of 12 central banks due to announce their latest decisions and on the macroeconomic front, we will receive a number of leading indicators (flash Purchasing Managers’ indices).00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:32 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:49 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)06:56 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

After a flurry of interest rate decisions by major central banks, global equities are mostly higher and the USD is mostly weaker - although it is rising against the JPY as the Bank of Japan remains on its lonely monetary policy island. The rally in US equities appears to be broadening, while Chinese equities are rallying on stimulus hopes. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, discusses currency positioning as the USD has continued to weaken against most currencies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that simply stopping rate hikes is not enough for gold to shine again.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:36 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:41 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:07,5 Update on gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)14:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged yesterday and sees two small hikes by the end of 2023, as it deals with a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. Our Chief Economist David Kohl shares his thoughts on how the Fed will move from here, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, provides an update from our CIO’s Investment Committee.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:45 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:30 Comments on Fed meeting by David Kohl (Chief Economist)10:10 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)11:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The stock market rally extended yesterday after US inflation figures reassured investors. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, but much of the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the press conference. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, expects some words of caution. 00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:35 Bond markets ahead of central bank decisions by Dario Messi (Fixed Income research)10:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Apple closed at an all-time high and the S&P 500 index ended the day above 4325 points its intra-day high from last August and so a key level for technical analysts – the focus is now on today’s US inflation release. China’s central bank in a surprise move lowered its short-term policy rate today amidst faltering growth figures – the big question is now if more stimulus is to come out of the world’s second largest economy. Manuel Villegas Next Generation Research notes that investors in crypto should expect confusion and volatility ahead as the US regulatory environment remains treacherous. 00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:36 Crypto assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

This week is a busy one with central banks around the world expected to announce their latest interest rate decisions, including the US, Eurozone, Japan and China. There will also be a raft of macroeconomic data for investors to digest. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today's episode to talk more about the VIX index hitting a new 3-year low and equity markets hitting a 52-week high.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:00 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)08:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The S&P 500 index in the US entered bull market territory yesterday, up 20% since its October 2022 low, on optimism that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for the time being. In contrast, a rate hike in Switzerland on 22nd June appears to be a done deal, setting the Swiss franc up for a rally, especially against the US dollar, as Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, explains. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)04:49 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)08:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The Bank of Canada joined the Reserve Bank of Australia by resuming rate hikes yesterday. Following the surprise 25-basis-point hike, US Treasury bonds sold off.  India’s government bonds also sold off despite the central bank there not hiking rates, but the Sensex stock index is heading towards record highs. Japan’s government bond yields also rose following news that Japan’s economy grew an annualised 2.7% in Q1 this year, higher than the expected 1.9%. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the show to update us on the iron ore market, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, provides the latest thoughts from our Investment Committee.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:34 Iron ore update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)06:43 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)09:18 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Straight after the Chinese authorities asked the country’s largest banks to lower their deposit rates, China’s trade data disappointed, with both imports and exports falling. But at least there is some positive geopolitical news as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to visit China. Meanwhile, US equities enjoyed some support yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level in 2023. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, joins today’s episode to explain why we still love IT stocks.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:29 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:24 Why we still love IT stocks by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)07:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.