Moving Markets

US equities stumbled yesterday, in contrast with a more positive day for European markets. The shift comes as investors reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, following a speech by Chairman Jerome Powell that suggested the economy was not sending any signals that would necessitate a rush to cut rates. Meanwhile, some ‘Trump trades’ have begun to unwind as investors continue to navigate the post-election landscape. In commodities, both oil and gold are feeling the pinch of a stronger US dollar. Joining us today to break down the latest developments in the currency and metals markets is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)07:51 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)12:24 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European bourses closed Wednesday’s session lower. The Nasdaq followed suit in the US, with the Dow and the S&P 500 ekeing out small gains on the day. This followed the release of October US CPI data which came in as expected and added support to the expectation of another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. There was also further US political news last night as the Associated Press announced that the Republicans have secured a majority in the US House of Representatives, which means that the new president will have the power to enact his legislative agenda. With gold down 8% since Mr Trump’s victory, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, delivers his assessment of where the precious metal will go now, and Nicolas Jordan joins from the CIO Office to update us on the current expectations of the bank’s investment committee.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:30 Impact of Trump victory on gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)09:28 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Invnestment Analysis)13:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Following a strong start to the week, markets took a step back yesterday as investors continued to digest the implications of the US election outcome. With key events on the horizon – including a slew of earnings reports and the release of US inflation data later today – traders are cautious about the potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Joining us to provide expert analysis on how these developments are shaping their respective markets are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy. They share insights into their latest rating changes in response to the shifting US political landscape.00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)05:58 Fixed income rating changes: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)10:52 Upgrade cyclicals and financials: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)15:07 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stock markets in Europe and the US started the week on a high note, with all three major US indices hitting new record highs. However, the momentum did not carry over to the Asia-Pacific region, where markets fell across the board in overnight trading. Meanwhile, commodities were lower, with gold and oil also bucking the upward trend. In contrast, Bitcoin has been on a tear, rising nearly 30% since the US presidential election last week. To help make sense of the current crypto market landscape, we’re joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:49 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)10:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Donald Trump's presidential victory boosted US equities, with gains led by banks, energy and small caps – the S&P 500 had its best week so far this year. Bitcoin crossed USD 81,000 for the first time ever and Nvidia became the first company to surpass USD 3.6 trillion in market value. Meanwhile, China’s economic stimulus disappointed. Key economic data and earnings reports are due this week, including AstraZeneca,Siemens, Alibaba and Tencent. Also watch for news on Trump cabinet picks. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, notes that US equities have more upside, while gold is in a healthy consolidation.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:54 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:21 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Global equities continued to celebrate the US election results, with European stocks joining the rally despite German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announcing potential snap elections. US equities hit new record highs yesterday, driven by technology stocks, upbeat earnings reports and another Fed rate cut. Chief Economist David Kohl expects this to be the last one for the year. And we also have Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, on today’s show talking about the US dollar, why he likes sterling, and the fundamentals behind this year's gold rally.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)06:06 Comments on FOMC Meeting: David Kohl (Chief Economist)10:05 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)15:00 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

With Mr Trump confirmed as the next US President and a Republican sweep priced in as a 94% probability, US equities, especially those likely to benefit from his policy changes, took off yesterday. The rally was echoed by the US dollar and Bitcoin. US Treasuries sold off on expectations that Mr Trump’s fiscal plans and proposal to hike tariffs will boost inflation and erode the Fed’s ability to lower rates. Europe’s equity markets were lower on the day as they digested the US news. Chinese markets have rallied this morning on the back of positive export growth data and the expectation of renewed stimulus. On the agenda for today – central bank meetings in the UK and the US: expectations are for a 25 basis point rate cut by both the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, joins the podcast to talk us through what a Trump sweep would mean for various different asset classes.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:54 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)07:27 Cross-asset class implications of US election result: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)16:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Join us on MovingMarkets as we break down the market implications of a potential second term for Donald Trump. With his pro-growth policies, including corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and new tariffs, investors are betting on a boost to US stocks, the US dollar, and crypto assets. Meanwhile, concerns about inflation are driving up US Treasury yields. In this episode, we're joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his insights on how a Trump presidency could impact US Treasury markets.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)07:29 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)11:06 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While it's still anyone's guess who will become the next US President, some currency analysts took the latest polls favouring Kamala Harris to unwind some of their 'Trump trades' by selling the US dollar. US equities saw some volatility yesterday, but safe-haven US Treasuries rallied, suggesting that investors may be getting cautious ahead of the election result. Christian Gattiker, our Head of Research, joins the show today to share his views on the US election and the possible outcomes and market reactions.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:24 US election preview: Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)11:06 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A busy week ahead with key events including the US presidential election, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and China's National People's Congress meeting to name but a few. The latest Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, despite him winning the state in 2016 and 2020. The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps on Wednesday. Among the 300 major companies reporting earnings are weight-loss company NovoNordisk and luxury group Richemont. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that in the past a Democratic president and a divided Congress have produced the best returns, if history is any guide.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:43 Technical Analysis update – Focus on US election by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)10:58 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.