Moving Markets

French assets took a hit yesterday, with stocks and bonds underperforming all other major markets. The current coalition government's instability has investors spooked, causing French 10-year government debt to yield the same as its Greek counterparts. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, provide updates on the outlook for gold and Julius Baer's investment strategy.00:00 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)00:32 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:32 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:09 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)13:52 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European markets closed lower yesterday, with auto stocks down 1.7%. The big US equity indices all inched higher, although small caps fell after Monday’s gains. Asia was mixed this morning with Chinese stocks up and Japanese stocks down. Bitcoin is now trading nearer USD 90,000 than 100,000. Geopolitical tensions have eased a touch today after a 2-month ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was initiated in the early hours of this morning. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, assesses the likely growth enhancing/hindering policies of the incoming US administration, whilst Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares the reasoning behind some of his team’s recent sector rating changes.00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)00:37 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:30 Fixed income update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)10:12 Consumer cyclicals up, utilities down: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)12:22 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets reacted to the nomination of Scott Bessent as the next US Treasury Secretary on Monday, with the dollar pulling back from two-year highs and US Treasury yields falling. US stocks rose, led by small caps which hit an intraday high, while European markets were mixed. A survey showed a drop in German business confidence and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane called for gradual interest rate cuts. Other notable developments include UniCredit's attempted takeover of Banco BPM; a potential deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict; and President-elect Trump's plan to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, says Bitcoin has established itself as a global macro asset this year.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:11 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:38 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After upbeat data out of the US provided a boost to investor sentiment, US markets extended their rally on Friday. A stock market rotation into small caps saw the Russell 2000 index make outsized gains last week, while safe haven assets continued to attract investors. As the market turns its attention to a data-packed week ahead, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers an update on the markets from a technical perspective and explains why a year-end rally is still on the table.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:39 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

European equities enjoyed a strong day yesterday, while Wall Street had a moderately positive day, marked by a rotation out of tech stocks and into more cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials and retail. Elsewhere, Gary Gensler announced his resignation as Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission as of 20 January 2025. Treasury yields rose across the curve as investors digested mixed economic data and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. In Asia, Japanese stocks led the way following the release of Japan's October CPI and preliminary PMI figures. Commodities also posted gains, with oil and gold prices rising amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is marching towards the USD 100,000 mark. Joining us today to break down the latest developments in the world of currencies is David Meier, Senior Economist.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:57 Currencies update - USD, EUR, CHF: David Meier (Senior Economist)12:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The market’s reaction to Nvidia’s highly anticipated results last night indicates just how high expectations were. The company’s results exceeded analysts’ expectations and it delivered a strong forecast for the current quarter, but the revenue forecast just wasn’t enough for the market and the company’s shares fell 2.5% in extended trading. Asia’s tech heavy markets also sold off somewhat following the results and the growing geopolitical tensions arising from developments in Ukraine. Bitcoin hit another new high. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, joins the podcast for a detailed look at what’s going on in the oil and gas market.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)04:59 Oil and gas: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)10:21 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine dampened global risk appetite and sent investors scrambling for safe-haven assets yesterday. While European markets ended the day in the red, US equities recovered from earlier losses as the focus turned to Nvidia's earnings report due after the close today. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, talks about the most anticipated earnings report of the season and explains why the path of least resistance for equities is up. And we have Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, on the show to talk about the divergence between ECB and Fed rate cut expectations.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)05:17 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)10:06 What we learned from the earnings season: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)14:07 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US stocks yesterday regained some ground after last week's sharp sell-off that reversed the S&P 500’s post-election gains as Wall Street looks ahead to some major market-moving earnings reports and bets for a December Fed rate cut are losing steam. Fabian Wenner, Equities Research, provides an update on the healthcare sector, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, shares with us the latest from the world of digital assets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:53 Update on healthcare sector: Fabian Wenner (Research Analyst)10:51 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)14:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Trump rally came to a halt last week as the S&P 500 fell 2% despite confirmation that the Republicans also won the House of Representatives. The USD strengthened to a one-year high and gold had its worst weekly drop in three years. Trump's cabinet appointments raised concerns and led to a sell-off in pharmaceutical stocks on Friday. Upcoming events this week include the G20 Summit starting on Monday, Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, and PMIs on Friday. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis Research, notes that the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend despite dropping last week.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:49 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)09:23 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

US equities stumbled yesterday, in contrast with a more positive day for European markets. The shift comes as investors reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, following a speech by Chairman Jerome Powell that suggested the economy was not sending any signals that would necessitate a rush to cut rates. Meanwhile, some ‘Trump trades’ have begun to unwind as investors continue to navigate the post-election landscape. In commodities, both oil and gold are feeling the pinch of a stronger US dollar. Joining us today to break down the latest developments in the currency and metals markets is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)07:51 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)12:24 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.