Moving Markets

Global markets experienced significant volatility yesterday due to ongoing trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump - the VIX index surged to 60 at one point. The S&P 500 closed just 0.2% lower despite threats of additional tariffs. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley stated that a decline in stocks alone won't prompt the Fed to intervene, but an impairment to the flow of credit to businesses would. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rebounded slightly today after a historic 13.2% collapse on Monday, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied 6% on positive trade news, with the US and Japan potentially negotiating a trade deal. European equity futures are up over 2% in response to the news. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, notes that the upcoming earnings season will be all about companies’ comments on the trade war.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:49 Q1 earnings season preview: Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equity Research)08:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As the emerging trade war takes its toll, causing global stock markets to sell off from Japan to Mexico, investor sentiment continues to deteriorate rapidly. After US stocks fell steeply on Friday, Asian equities have plummeted today, with tech and banking stocks leading the decline in response to the retaliatory tariffs announced by China. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his reaction to the escalating tariff war with a focus on China.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:44 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:17 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:04 Reaction to tariff announcements in Asia: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)19:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff war spread across global markets on Thursday, knocking down stocks and sparking a flight to fixed-income havens. US equities and the dollar saw some of the worst selling on speculation the president’s trade offensive will cripple the American economy. In today’s special episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, shares his insights on the latest developments and how investors should navigate this uncertain environment. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about why he sees more room for US dollar weakness and why he thinks gold will continue to perform well.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)06:10 Reaction to Trump tariff announcements: Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)11:10 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last night President Trump delivered a 99 minute speech in which he announced a baseline 10% tariff across the board. For many of the 180 countries on that board, the actual number is much higher: China now faces a rate of 54% and it has vowed to take ‘resolute counter-measures’ to safeguard its own rights and interests. Markets reacted badly to the news with only gold and US Treasury prices moving higher. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the impact on economic growth and why the biggest inflationary impact might actually be felt in the US. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, brings a timely update on AI.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:33 Liberation Day: David Kohl (Chief Economist)11:20 AI update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)15:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

In this episode, we dive into the latest market developments as European government bonds and equities surge on contained eurozone inflation. Meanwhile, US stocks experience a volatile session ahead of the unveiling of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff plans. Joining us is Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his insights on why he thinks it's not the right time to increase risk exposure in bond markets.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:49 Bond market latest: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)09:39 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European markets dropped yesterday but US stocks rebounded and the S&P 500 index closed up 0.6%, although this wasn’t enough to stop the benchmark index from posting its worst month in two years. Gold hit a fresh all-time high, up 1.2%, as investors sought safety amid concerns over the Trump administration's imminent tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and growth. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on energy markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:22 Energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)10:15,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

US inflation concerns intensified, with the core PCE rising 2.8% year-on-year, fuelling fears of stagflation. Tariffs remain a significant concern, with the US poised to unveil new measures on Wednesday. The EU is bracing itself for a potential 20% tariff, and Goldman Sachs has increased the likelihood of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Asian markets are feeling the strain of tariff uncertainty, with stocks declining, the Japanese yen strengthening, and gold at an all-time high. Also in focus this week: Friday's US jobs report, which may signal a cooling labour market. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses the S&P 500, gold, and the US dollar amidst a risk-off backdrop in the markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)08:29 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Wednesday’s announcement of new tariffs on all non-US-made cars sent shockwaves through the markets, with stock markets worldwide feeling the ripple effects. Carmakers were among the hardest hit, while some investors sought safer havens in more stable sectors, such as consumer packaged goods, where share prices rose. In the Asia-Pacific region, markets were largely down, despite news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had met with global CEOs in Beijing and speculation that Trump may cut tariffs on Chinese goods to facilitate a TikTok deal. Against this backdrop, gold reached yet another record high overnight. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who shares his insights on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals, and offers some interesting trade ideas.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)07:05 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A three-day period of relative calm on Wall Street came to an end as major tech and automobile companies led a decline in global equity markets yesterday. Concerns about the economic impact of ever more tariff announcements, weak consumer sentiment and rising inflation risks are dampening investor risk appetite. Nvidia and Tesla slumped nearly 6%, and the automobile sector was among yesterday’s laggards after Trump announced 25% tariffs on the sector. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the impact of tariffs on copper and why he expects the latest rally will not last.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)05:29 Copper: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)08:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Consumer sentiment in the US continues to decline, with some indices flashing warning signs of a potential recession. Despite the weakness in sentiment, hard economic data remains resilient - for now. Meanwhile, one of the main beneficiaries of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, is industrial metal copper, whose price has reached an all-time-high in New York. Join us as we discuss the latest developments with Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who predicts further volatility on the horizon, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who argues that investors should capitalise on the current US equity bounce to diversify into international markets.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:09 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)11:24 Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)16:43 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.