Moving Markets

Despite strong German inflation, global bond yields fell as markets shifted from inflation concerns to weakening growth signals. Soft Swiss KOF and Eurozone confidence data reinforced this move, pushing investors into bonds. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has limited influence over supply‑driven price spikes, reducing expectations of imminent US rate increases. In equities, Europe held up, while US markets weakened as sentiment stayed fragile, oil prices stayed high, and volatility persisted after a month of war. Gold is recovering, up nearly 10% from last week’s low. Overall, traders point to cleaner positioning, weak sentiment after a sharp global equity drop and a bond‑yield spike this month, and quarter‑end flows as key drivers of market moves at the end of the month. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research highlights a promising outlook for healthcare, driven by better diagnostics and AI‑enabled drug discovery.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:24) - Future Health: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (12:55) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Risk-off sentiment dominated the end of last week, with the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Markets remained broadly cautious amid scepticism about any near-term geopolitical de-escalation after several days of headline-driven volatility. Concerns over a prolonged conflict and the risk of spillover effects on inflation and demand as a result of higher oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights why lower oil prices are critical for equity markets and what it implies now that the S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (01:00) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:17) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As the war in the Middle East continues, energy markets are still at the centre of investors’ attention. How resilient are global oil and gas flows, and what are the possible scenarios as the situation evolves? In this episode Helen Freer is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy markets and investors. The conversation covers the current level of oil supply disruptions, the effectiveness of alternative trade routes, the role of storage buffers, and the potential for lasting structural changes in global energy markets. Norbert outlines the key scenarios for the months ahead, the economic risks at play, and what investors should keep in mind as uncertainty persists.(00:00) - Introduction (00:49) - Crisis dynamics and early surprises (02:01) - The Strait of Hormuz situation (03:03) - How oil is moving around the disruption (04:00) - The role and limits of oil in storage (05:21) - Energy infrastructure (06:41) - Economic implications (07:58) - Could the conflict drive lasting structural changes in energy markets? (09:36) - Central banks’ policy response (10:54) - Scenario analysis (14:55) - Key takeaways for investors (15:45) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets saw another sharp risk‑off move yesterday as fears of escalation in the Iran war pushed investors out of everything except oil. Inflation worries strengthened after the OECD raised its US forecast, while growth concerns deepened in Europe, where data points to a weak start to 2026. Corporate news added pressure, with technology stocks hit by Meta’s legal setbacks and renewed doubts about memory‑chip demand. Asian markets steadied after the US extended its deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s power plant infrastructure, though geopolitical risks remain high. Key releases today include Spain’s inflation data, BYD’s earnings, and US consumer sentiment figures. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the recent sharp moves in bond yields and what it means for investors amid an uncertain war trajectory.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (05:54) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equities rose on Wednesday as hopes of a path to peace in the Middle East and lower oil prices lifted sentiment. The MSCI World Index gained nearly 1%, its best performance since 9 February, and bond yields eased sharply. Beneath the positive market tone, economic surveys from Switzerland and Germany pointed to weakening confidence. Company news was mixed: Arm Holdings rallied on progress in AI hardware, while Meta and YouTube lost a landmark social‑media addiction case. In Asia, sentiment reversed as oil rebounded and memory stocks weakened after Google flagged an LLM compression method that could cut memory use. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that aluminium prices have fallen back after an initial spike following the outbreak of the Iran war, despite the region’s central role in the market.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:45) - Aluminium: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:05) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets continue to gyrate around the latest headlines on the Middle East conflict. Early weakness yesterday – driven by doubts over the status of any US–Iran negotiations – gave way to renewed optimism overnight and into Asian trading this morning, as the US outlined a 15‑point plan aimed at ending the conflict. Gold stabilised, while global PMIs added to inflation concerns and highlighted weakening economic momentum. In this context, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses the drivers behind the recent market behaviour, why investors should remain patient, and why Swiss equities continue to serve as an effective crisis hedge.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:40) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (10:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equities staged a sharp rebound yesterday after reports of a potential de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude saw one of its biggest intraday swings on record, and short‑dated US Treasury yields dropped sharply. Asian markets also retraced some of their steep losses from the previous session. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares why he remains constructive on the Buildings & Infrastructure theme in Germany.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:02) - Germany’s infrastructure spending: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (09:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets in Asia have followed their US peers lower this morning after President’s Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was issued on Saturday evening. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have responded that the Strait will remain closed until their power plants are rebuilt. They also warned that if Washington carries out its threat to obliterate their power plants, they will target energy anddesalination facilities in the Gulf. US Treasury bonds continue to see their prices fall, gold and silver are lower, and oil is trading on every headline. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins today’s podcast to wrap up last week’s key central bank decisions and provide his assessment of how they are tackling the increasing threat of inflation. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his insights into the correction in equity markets, and also where he sees risk appetite remaining intact. Tune in for the details!(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:37) - Central bank meetings: David Kohl, Chief Economist (11:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (14:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving a new wave of uncertainty, investors are watching central bank decisions and accompanying statements very closely. How are policymakers responding, and what does this mean for fixed income positioning?In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Dario Messi, Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss the week’s mammoth round of central bank meetings. The conversation explores how recent geopolitical developments are shaping inflation expectations, and the challenges that these pose for central banks. Dario shares his perspective on why a hawkish tone from policy makers is justified but may not necessarily translate into actual policy tightening. He also offers his insights for fixed income investors navigating the current environment.(00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Takeaways from the Fed’s decision (02:42) - Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank (03:57) - Has the rate-cut narrative been derailed? (06:40) - Will sounding hawkish translate into being hawkish? (08:06) - Implications for bond markets and yield curves (09:33) - Fixed income scenarios (11:05) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets turned choppy heading into the weekend, while oil prices cooled as investors weighed efforts by the US and Israel to ease concerns over the Iran war. Anxieties over hawkish central bank policies and upward pressure on rates also weighed on sentiment. However, the market continues to be very sensitive to any signs of potential de-escalation. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, talks about gold and the impact of the oil price on currency markets and the US dollar in particular.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:50) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions (10:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.